Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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18

Tim Stützle

Ottawa Senators Center

Fifty-two assists at 22, and twenty-one fewer goals than the year before.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21OTT53121729-181440211110.815:44
2021-22OTT79223658-273771417612.518:25
2022-23OTT78395190-354103322817.121:16
2023-24OTT75185270-17281021929.421:07
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—28591156247-651332241170712.919:24

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

75 games, 18 goals and 52 assists for 70 points, 1 on the power play, 28 penalty minutes, 21:07 a night and minus-17. He took 50.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,210 minutes, the 58th percentile, and his ice went 58-67 against an expectation of 54.73-53.24.

Three goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and fourteen more conceded than they called for, which is the largest goaltending deficit of any forward on the club. Ninety points the season before, seventy this one, and the whole of the difference is goals: 39 became 18.

The Finesse Game

269 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 39 per cent of them from inside twenty, 192 of those on goal, converted at 9.4 per cent against a career 12.87 across 707 shots.

Fifty-two assists and 156 in 285 career games. He carries the puck through the neutral zone as well as anybody on this roster and beats the first man wide almost at will; the passing has always been ahead of the shot, and a season three and a half points of shooting below his own career rate is most of why the goals halved.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 187 and took 28 penalty minutes.

133 career penalty minutes in 285 games. He does not forecheck by contact and does not win pucks on the wall; the defensive value is entirely in the skating, and a career minus-65 says the rest of it has not arrived.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2020, four seasons, 247 points in 285 games at 22.

Four career shorthanded goals, which is a use his coaches have found for the speed. He is 22 with 247 points in 285 games and a career minus-65; the first of those is the case for him and the second is the case against.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    16:08 a game at five-on-five, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck through the neutral zone as well as anybody on this roster and beats the first man wide almost at will; the passing has always been ahead of the shot, and a season three and a half points of shooting below his own career rate is most of why the goals halved.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Fifty-two assists and 156 in 285 career games.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “Four career shorthanded goals, which is a use his coaches have found for the speed.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,210 minutes

Expected goals
50.7%
59th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.4%
75th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 67 against. Expected: 54.7 and 53.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
57th
Numbers
59th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 75 games

Top speed
23.5 mph
96th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
3.77 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.49 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.8 mph
93rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1210 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
OTT took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.7% — 1.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,210 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Claude Giroux53.5%47.3%51.6%
Jakob Chychrun50.3%51.0%46.2%
Jake Sanderson53.9%48.9%52.5%

53.5% together, 47.3% for him apart and 51.6% for Giroux apart. He was worse away from Giroux, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Giroux did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

269 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.