Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

26

Erik Brannstrom

Vancouver Canucks Defense

Sixty-two career assists against seven goals, and no game-winners at all in 266 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19OTT2000000000—18:04
2019-20OTT31044-916000380.014:51
2020-21OTT3021113+325100424.816:21
2021-22OTT5301414-1730000860.019:46
2022-23OTT7421618+538000742.716:07
2023-24OTT7631720+536000773.916:35
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—26676269-131451003172.216:52

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games with Ottawa, 3 goals and 17 assists for 20 points, 36 penalty minutes, 16:35 a night and plus-5. He took 51.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,092 minutes, the 64th percentile, and his ice went 38-39 against an expectation of 44.06-41.31.

Six goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and two goals of goaltending above them. Twenty points is a career high and the plus-5 matches his best, in a sixth season from a first-round pick.

The Finesse Game

104 attempts at a median of 44 feet with 61 per cent of them from beyond forty and 12 per cent from inside twenty, 75 of those on goal, converted at 3.9 per cent against a career 2.21 across 317 shots.

Sixty-two career assists against 7 goals in 266 games and no game-winners at all. He moves the puck early and accurately and that is the entire offensive case; a career 2.21 per cent across three hundred shots is one of the lowest rates a defenceman can post and still keep taking them.

The Physical Game

He is 5-10 and 185 and took 36 penalty minutes.

145 career penalty minutes in 266 games. He is small for a defenceman and does not defend by contact; the gap is closed with feet and the puck is taken with a stick, and there is no version of this game that involves clearing a crease.

The Intangibles

Fifteenth overall in 2017 by Vegas, six seasons, and Vancouver will be his second organisation.

A career minus-13 in 266 games. He was a first-round pick by a club he never played a game for, spent five seasons in Ottawa, and is 25.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He moves the puck early and accurately and that is the entire offensive case; a career 2.21 per cent across three hundred shots is one of the lowest rates a defenceman can post and still keep taking them.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He is small for a defenceman and does not defend by contact; the gap is closed with feet and the puck is taken with a stick, and there is no version of this game that involves clearing a crease.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,092 minutes

Expected goals
51.6%
65th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50%
55th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 39 against. Expected: 44.1 and 41.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
65th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 76 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
47th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.41 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.43 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.2 mph
46th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with OTT · 1092 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
OTT took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.6% — 2.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,092 minutes at five-on-five — 71st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Drake Batherson50.3%52.2%48.0%
Brady Tkachuk61.9%47.2%53.4%
Ridly Greig43.5%54.6%53.0%

50.3% together, 52.2% for him apart and 48.0% for Batherson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

104 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 61% from beyond forty.