Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

8

Brady Tkachuk

Ottawa Senators Left Wing

Fourth in the league in shots on goal and second in penalty minutes, and the only man in the top five of both.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19OTT71222345-107540321410.316:01
2019-20OTT71212344-141062032598.118:56
2020-21OTT56171936-17695032207.718:14
2021-22OTT79303767-711790328810.418:48
2022-23OTT82354883-10126110634710.118:38
2023-24OTT81373774+1134120235710.419:09
2024-25 so far
Career440162187349-576274302016859.618:20

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 37 goals and 37 assists for 74 points, 12 on the power play, 134 penalty minutes, 19:09 a night and plus-1. He took 55.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,203 minutes, the 89th percentile and the best chance share on the club, and his ice went 64-59 against an expectation of 62.97-50.98.

One goal of finishing above what the chances were worth and eight more conceded than they called for, which on this club was the crease rather than the winger. Thirty-seven goals is a career high and 74 points his second-best season.

The Finesse Game

477 attempts at a median of 23 feet with 45 per cent of them from inside twenty, 357 of those on goal, converted at 10.4 per cent against a career 9.61 across 1,685 shots.

357 shots on goal was fourth in the league. He is not a natural finisher and has never shot better than eleven per cent over a season; the goals come from volume and from where he stands. Forty-three career power-play goals in 440 games, almost all of them from the blue paint.

The Physical Game

He is 6-4 and 226 and took 134 penalty minutes, second in the league.

627 career penalty minutes in 440 games. He forechecks by driving the defenceman into his own end boards and he stands in front of the goaltender until somebody moves him, which mostly nobody does. The whole of the offensive game is built on being the largest man in the slot.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2018, six seasons, 349 points in 440 games, and the captain in Ottawa.

A career minus-57 on a club that has not made the playoffs in any of his six seasons is a fact about Ottawa rather than about him. He is 25 and has been the best player and the loudest presence on this roster for four years.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,203 minutes

Expected goals
55.3%
89th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56%
92nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 64 for, 59 against. Expected: 63.0 and 51.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
92nd
Numbers
89th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 437 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1203 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
OTT took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.3% — 6.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,203 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Drake Batherson52.1%57.4%45.7%
Jakob Chychrun51.6%57.7%45.5%
Jake Sanderson58.1%53.5%49.5%

52.1% together, 57.4% for him apart and 45.7% for Batherson apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Batherson behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

477 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 38 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.