Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

27

Michael Rasmussen

Detroit Red Wings Center

Six-foot-six, and the softest measured shot on the roster at 78.8 mph.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19DET6281018-8294007410.812:05
2020-21DET403912-526001624.814:48
2021-22DET80151227-256600212811.714:31
2022-23DET56101929+2430008811.415:06
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—238365086-3616440335210.214:04

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 19 assists in 56 games, plus-2, 43 penalty minutes, 15:06 a night — 29 points, a career high, and plus-2 on a club that finished minus-39.

47.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 686 minutes, the 36th percentile, with his ice at 31-31 against an expectation of 25.40-27.64. Six better than the chances at the offensive end and three worse at the defensive one.

Four seasons, 238 games, 86 points. He has never played more than 80.

The Finesse Game

88 shots at a median of 16 feet, 60 per cent from inside twenty and 9 per cent from beyond forty — the closest-range distribution of any forward on this roster.

Inside forty: 79 shots, ten goals, 12.66 per cent. Beyond forty: 7 shots, none.

10 tip-ins and 8 wrap-arounds out of 88 attempts. He works below the goal line and in the blue paint, which at 6-6 is exactly the right use of him.

78.8 mph at the 1st percentile — the softest registered shot on the club and among the softest in the league. Everything he scores, he scores from arm’s length.

The Physical Game

6-6 and 222, one of the largest forwards in the league. 22.5 mph at the 61st percentile and 1.7 bursts over twenty a game at the 80th, which for a man that size is genuinely good.

2.34 miles a game at the 33rd percentile — ordinary distance in fifteen minutes.

43 penalty minutes in 56 games is a high rate. He plays a heavy game in front of both nets and takes the penalties that go with it.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2017 out of Tri-City, and four seasons later a 29-point third-line centre.

That is a disappointment against the draft position and a perfectly reasonable NHL player. The size, the net-front work and the penalty killing are real; the hands never arrived, and a 78.8 mph shot puts a hard ceiling on the rest.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    72.9% of his attempts in the slot, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He works below the goal line and in the blue paint, which at 6-6 is exactly the right use of him.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He plays a heavy game in front of both nets and takes the penalties that go with it.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “The size, the net-front work and the penalty killing are real”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 686 minutes

Expected goals
47.9%
37th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46%
23rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 31 against. Expected: 25.4 and 27.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
37th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 56 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.71 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.34 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
78.8 mph
15th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 686 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
DET took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.9% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 686 minutes at five-on-five — 30th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Moritz Seider49.5%46.9%46.2%
Ben Chiarot41.1%51.2%42.6%
Andrew Copp47.0%48.3%41.6%

49.5% together, 46.9% for him apart and 46.2% for Seider apart. Seider was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Seider than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

118 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 60% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.