Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

2

Jeff Petry

Detroit Red Wings Defense

Eighty shots on goal from beyond forty feet, two goals, and a 99.3 mph shot behind them.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11EDM35145-1210000412.420:22
2011-12EDM7322325-7261001111.821:46
2012-13EDM483912+129010664.521:55
2013-14EDM8071017-2242100967.321:35
2014-15EDM/MTL7871522-28421011265.621:15
2015-16MTL5151116-616102985.121:21
2016-17MTL8082028+3222011724.722:07
2017-18MTL82123042-30286021786.723:30
2018-19MTL82133346-5283041727.623:07
2019-20MTL71112940-10263131587.023:39
2020-21MTL55123042+6204021289.422:44
2021-22MTL6862127-11360011244.822:07
2022-23PIT6152631+2242001134.422:21
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—86492261353-1193492421615835.822:14

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 26 assists in 61 games for Pittsburgh, plus-2, 22:21 a night — 31 points and his most productive season since 2020-21.

52.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,071 minutes, the 73rd percentile, with his ice at 51-49 against an expectation of 49.33-44.12. Two better than the chances at the offensive end and five worse at the defensive one.

Thirteen seasons, 864 games, 353 points. He has played 22 minutes or more a night in seven straight years.

The Finesse Game

113 shots at a median of 52 feet, 73 per cent from beyond forty and 8 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty: 80 shots on goal, two goals, 2.50 per cent. Inside forty: 28 shots, three goals.

36 of his attempts were slap shots and the registered shot speed is 99.3 mph at the 95th percentile. Five goals in 61 games.

This is the third defenceman in this chapter with a shot in the 95th percentile or better, and the three of them scored ten goals between them from beyond forty feet on 257 attempts. Detroit’s blue line is the clearest single demonstration in the book of what a hard point shot is actually worth.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 208. 22.1 mph at the 42nd percentile, 0.7 bursts a game at the 34th, 3.17 miles a game at the 89th — the mileage of a first-pair defenceman at 35.

24 penalty minutes in 61 games at 22 minutes a night is a low rate. He is not a physical defenceman and never has been; the game is skating the puck out and joining the rush.

The speed has held better than most at his age, and the burst count says he is choosing not to use it rather than unable to.

The Intangibles

45th overall in 2006 out of Ann Arbor and Michigan State, four Edmonton seasons, seven and a half in Montreal, one in Pittsburgh, and a return to Michigan at 35.

His father Dan pitched thirteen years in the major leagues, which is a family sporting record almost nobody in this book can match.

He is a third-pair defenceman being paid as a second, and Detroit needed a right shot who can play 22 minutes. On both counts the fit is what it appears to be.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “the game is skating the puck out and joining the rush”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,071 minutes

Expected goals
52.8%
73rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
69th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 49 against. Expected: 49.3 and 44.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
34th
Numbers
73rd

The numbers rank him 39 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 61 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.66 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.17 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
99.3 mph
93rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with PIT · 1071 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
PIT took 53.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.8% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,071 minutes at five-on-five — 66th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Marcus Pettersson53.0%52.5%56.7%
Jason Zucker54.9%51.6%55.7%
Evgeni Malkin53.0%52.7%55.6%

53.0% together, 52.5% for him apart and 56.7% for Pettersson apart. Pettersson was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

157 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 73% from beyond forty.