Adam Erne

Forty goals in 355 games, and the 4th percentile in expected-goal share.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	TBL	26	3	0	3	-9	11	0	0	0	40	7.5	11:48
2017-18	TBL	23	3	1	4	-1	11	0	0	1	29	10.3	10:07
2018-19	TBL	65	7	13	20	+10	40	2	0	3	70	10.0	10:33
2019-20	DET	56	2	3	5	-24	28	0	0	0	63	3.2	11:49
2020-21	DET	45	11	9	20	-1	26	3	0	0	71	15.5	13:55
2021-22	DET	79	6	13	19	-22	34	0	0	1	108	5.6	13:23
2022-23	DET	61	8	10	18	-12	21	0	0	2	55	14.5	13:23
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	355	40	49	89	-59	171	5	0	7	436	9.2	12:21

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

8 goals and 10 assists in 61 games for Detroit, minus-12, 13:23 a night, 55 shots at 14.5 per cent.

39.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 707 minutes, the 4th percentile — the worst share of any Edmonton forward and one of the worst in the league — with his ice at 20-35 against an expectation of 18.45-28.61.

One better than the chances at the offensive end and seven worse at the defensive one, on a club that finished 31st in generating them.

Seven seasons, 355 games, 89 points.

The Finesse Game

55 shots at a median of 23 feet, 45 per cent from inside twenty and 17 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 48 shots, eight goals, 16.67 per cent. Beyond forty: 6 shots, none.

55 shots in 61 games is very low volume and 14.5 per cent shooting on it will not repeat. Forty goals in 355 career games is the honest rate.

86.9 mph at the 21st percentile. The shot is soft and the game is the forecheck.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 209. 22.3 mph at the 52nd percentile, 1.0 bursts a game at the 56th, 2.17 miles a game at the 23rd — ordinary speed, short shifts.

21 penalty minutes in 61 games is a lower rate than his career, and the career figure is not high either.

He is heavy and plays the wall, and the 4th-percentile possession share says it has not been translating into anything for some time.

The Intangibles

33rd overall in 2013 to Tampa Bay, four Detroit seasons, and a one-year contract in Edmonton at 28.

He is a fourth-line winger with size and a career of poor possession numbers on poor clubs. Edmonton is the first good one he has played for, and that is the entire case for expecting the numbers to look different.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line
“He is heavy and plays the wall”
forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck
“The shot is soft and the game is the forecheck.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 707 minutes

Expected goals: 39.2%; 4th pct
Shot attempts: 41.5%; 4th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 35 against. Expected: 18.4 and 28.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

9th

Numbers

4th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 61 games

Top speed: 22.3 mph; 59th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 1.03 a game
Distance: 2.17 miles a game
Hardest shot: 86.9 mph; 47th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with DET · 707 minutes at five-on-five

Pius Suternow VAN30%
Oskar Sundqvistnow STL28%
Andrew Copp24%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: DET took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 39.2% — 7.0 below the club he did it on.
The role: Fourth line, 707 minutes at five-on-five — 32nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Ben Chiarot	36.2%	40.9%	43.5%
Olli Määttä	37.8%	39.9%	46.8%
Pius Suter	45.2%	36.7%	48.8%

36.2% together, 40.9% for him apart and 43.5% for Chiarot apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

84 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.