Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

Andrew Copp

Detroit Red Wings Center

Nine goals and 33 assists off an 81.5 mph shot — the 4th percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15WPG1011+2000040.013:16
2015-16WPG777613+860005413.08:00
2016-17WPG649817+8180117711.712:21
2017-18WPG8291928+1714020969.413:44
2018-19WPG69111425+2060128213.412:10
2019-20WPG63101626-3101051218.317:42
2020-21WPG55152439+22060111513.018:15
2021-22WPG/NYR72213253+151632518311.519:11
2022-23DET8293342+2251121207.518:09
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—56591153244+711151171685210.714:49

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 33 assists in all 82 games, plus-2, 18:09 a night, 120 shots at 7.5 per cent — 42 points, the second-best total of his nine seasons.

42.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,117 minutes, the 10th percentile, with his ice at 40-40 against an expectation of 35.95-48.20. Four better than the chances at the offensive end and eight better at the defensive one, so the results were considerably kinder than the play.

Nine seasons, 565 games, 244 points.

The Finesse Game

120 shots at a median of 25 feet, 39 per cent from inside twenty and 23 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 89 shots, eight goals, 8.99 per cent. Beyond forty: 29 shots, none.

81.5 mph at the 4th percentile — one of the softest shots in the league, and 9 goals on 120 attempts is what that produces. He has scored 21 once, in the season he played with the Rangers’ top six, and the other eight years he has averaged nine.

The 33 assists are the season and they are real: 153 in 565 career games from a checking centre.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 200. 21.8 mph at the 25th percentile, 0.5 bursts a game at the 27th, 2.88 miles a game at the 72nd — heavy mileage without speed, which for a centre playing eighteen minutes against other clubs’ best is the expected shape.

25 penalty minutes in 82 games is a low rate for the role.

He is a defensively-minded centre and last season the defensive numbers were the worst of his career, which is either the club or the beginning of something.

The Intangibles

104th overall in 2013 out of Ann Arbor, four years at Michigan, seven Winnipeg seasons, and a Detroit contract at 27 to come home.

He was also a quarterback at Michigan, which is a rarer double than the biography usually implies.

Five years and 42 points in the first of them. The passing is a genuine asset; the shot means there is a ceiling on what the role can produce.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The 33 assists are the season and they are real: 153 in 565 career games from a checking centre.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He is a defensively-minded centre and last season the defensive numbers were the worst of his career, which is either the club or the beginning of something.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “which for a centre playing eighteen minutes against other clubs' best is the expected shape”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,117 minutes

Expected goals
42.7%
10th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.5%
14th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 40 against. Expected: 36.0 and 48.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
10th

The two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
35th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.54 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.88 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
81.5 mph
22nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1117 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
DET took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.7% — 3.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,117 minutes at five-on-five — 74th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Moritz Seider42.6%42.8%48.6%
Ben Chiarot39.4%44.3%43.4%
David Perron46.9%40.7%51.1%

42.6% together, 42.8% for him apart and 48.6% for Seider apart. Seider was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

160 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.