This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Lucas Raymond
Detroit Red Wings Left Wing
Fifty-seven points at 19, forty-five at 20, and the 12th percentile in expected-goal share.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | DET | 82 | 23 | 34 | 57 | -32 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 184 | 12.5 | 18:09 |
| 2022-23 | DET | 74 | 17 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 134 | 12.7 | 17:23 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 156 | 40 | 62 | 102 | -49 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 318 | 12.6 | 17:47 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
17 goals and 28 assists in 74 games, minus-17, 17:23 a night, 134 shots at 12.7 per cent.
As a rookie the year before he had 23 goals and 57 points in all 82. The rate fell from 0.70 a game to 0.61, and the goals from 23 to 17.
43.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 12th percentile — the worst share of any Detroit forward playing a regular role — with his ice at 33-49 against an expectation of 33.84-44.11. Exactly as the chances predicted at the offensive end and five worse at the defensive one.
Two seasons, 156 games, 102 points at 21.
The Finesse Game
134 shots at a median of 21 feet and 49 per cent from inside twenty — half of everything he shot came from the slot.
Inside forty: 115 shots, seventeen goals, 16.52 per cent. Beyond forty: 17 shots, none.
16 tip-ins and 13 slap shots out of 134 attempts, which is an unusual combination for a small winger and reads as a player used on both units of a power play that finished 23rd in expected goals.
89.4 mph at the 41st percentile. The shot is average and the hands are the asset.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 186. 22.1 mph at the 39th percentile, 1.1 bursts a game at the 57th, 2.75 miles a game at the 64th — ordinary in all three, which at 20 is neither encouraging nor alarming.
24 penalty minutes in 74 games. He plays no physical game and at 186 pounds is not about to.
The 12th-percentile possession share is the number that needs to move. On a club that finished 31st in even-strength chances it is not entirely his, and Larkin and DeBrincat both played more and did better.
The Intangibles
Fourth overall in 2020 out of Gothenburg, an NHL regular at 19, and 102 points before his 21st birthday.
The second season was worse than the first and that is common enough not to mean much. What it did not do is settle anything: two years in, the tools read as a very good top-six winger and the possession numbers read as a passenger, and this book cannot yet tell which is the player.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“half of everything he shot came from the slot”
“The shot is average and the hands are the asset.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 995 minutes
- Expected goals
- 43.4%
- 12th pct
- Shot attempts
- 46.4%
- 25th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 33 for, 49 against. Expected: 33.8 and 44.1.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 74 games
- Top speed
- 22.1 mph
- 47th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.07 a game
- Distance
- 2.75 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 89.4 mph
- 65th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 995 minutes at five-on-five
- Dylan Larkin55%
- Andrew Copp36%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- DET took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.4% — 2.8 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 995 minutes at five-on-five — 57th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin | 46.4% | 39.4% | 52.2% |
| Moritz Seider | 47.2% | 41.1% | 46.7% |
| Ben Chiarot | 42.7% | 43.8% | 42.2% |
46.4% together, 39.4% for him apart and 52.2% for Larkin apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Larkin and did not follow him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
170 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.