Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

10

Klim Kostin

Detroit Red Wings Center

Six-foot-four and 232 pounds, sixty-six penalty minutes, and the 2nd percentile in distance covered.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20STL4101+10000520.08:32
2020-21STL2011-100000—13:48
2021-22STL40459-3230013112.99:01
2022-23EDM57111021+12660025619.610:04
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—103161632+9890039217.49:40

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 10 assists in 57 games for Edmonton, plus-12, 66 penalty minutes, 10:04 a night, 56 shots at 19.6 per cent.

47.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 562 minutes, the 33rd percentile, with his ice at 28-18 against an expectation of 20.48-22.91. Eight better than the chances at the offensive end and five better at the defensive one — good results in sheltered minutes behind McDavid and Draisaitl.

Four seasons, 103 games, 32 points.

The Finesse Game

56 shots at a median of 23 feet, 41 per cent from inside twenty and 12 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 49 shots, ten goals, 20.41 per cent. Beyond forty: 7 shots, one.

19.6 per cent shooting on 56 attempts is a very small sample and it will not repeat. What is worth keeping is that all of it came from close range.

90.8 mph at the 50th percentile. An average shot on a fourth-line winger.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 232, and this is the report. 66 penalty minutes in 57 games at ten minutes a night is one of the highest rates in these five chapters.

22.3 mph at the 53rd percentile and 1.6 bursts a game at the 76th — respectable for the size. And 1.64 miles a game at the 2nd percentile, which is the lowest figure of any forward across these clubs and a straightforward consequence of ten-minute nights.

He hits, he fights, and he plays the wall. Detroit traded for him to add that, and there is not much else on the page.

The Intangibles

31st overall in 2017 to St. Louis, four seasons of mostly American-league hockey, and a first real NHL year at 23 on the best offensive club in the league.

He is 24 and the eleven goals came at 19.6 per cent shooting in ten minutes a night behind the two best forwards alive. Detroit will not be able to reproduce those circumstances, and the size and the penalty minutes are what actually transfers.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He hits, he fights, and he plays the wall.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He hits, he fights, and he plays the wall.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “66 penalty minutes in 57 games at ten minutes a night is one of the highest rates in these five chapters.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 562 minutes

Expected goals
47.2%
34th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49%
45th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 18 against. Expected: 20.5 and 22.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
34th

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 57 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
59th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.60 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.64 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.8 mph
72nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with EDM · 562 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.2% — 6.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 562 minutes at five-on-five — 20th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mattias Janmark49.8%45.7%48.9%
Darnell Nurse49.4%46.0%52.5%
Derek Ryan47.9%46.8%57.3%

49.8% together, 45.7% for him apart and 48.9% for Janmark apart. He was worse away from Janmark, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Janmark did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

76 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.