Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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36

Christian Fischer

Detroit Red Wings Right Wing

Seven seasons in Arizona, 56 goals, and thirty-two shots from beyond forty feet without one.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17ARI7303000011030.012:20
2017-18ARI79151833-17145031549.713:54
2018-19ARI7111718-13270001169.513:10
2019-20ARI56639+216001837.211:01
2020-21ARI523811-106000476.412:45
2021-22ARI535510-1514100766.613:07
2022-23ARI80131427-72001012210.714:51
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—3985655111-60976156089.213:16

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 14 assists in 80 games for Arizona, minus-7, 14:51 a night — 27 points, his second-best total in seven seasons.

43.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 967 minutes, the 11th percentile, with his ice at 30-40 against an expectation of 31.98-42.21. Both ends close to the chances, and the chances were poor.

Seven seasons, 398 games, 111 points, all in Arizona.

The Finesse Game

122 shots at a median of 31 feet, 35 per cent from inside twenty and 35 per cent from beyond forty — an evenly barbelled distribution and an unproductive one.

Inside forty: 84 shots, thirteen goals, 15.48 per cent. Beyond forty: 32 shots, none.

A quarter of his shot volume produced nothing at all. The close-range rate is good and the long shots are pure waste, which is the most common finding in this book and one of the most consistent.

82.7 mph at the 5th percentile. The shot is very soft and 56 goals in 398 games is the consequence.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 212. 22.6 mph at the 64th percentile and 1.7 bursts over twenty a game at the 80th — he gets to speed often for a fourth-line winger, and 2.40 miles a game at the 37th says the shifts are short.

20 penalty minutes in 80 games is a low rate for a player his size playing a forechecking role.

The physical game is real and clean: he finishes checks, works the wall and does not cross the line.

The Intangibles

32nd overall in 2015 out of the US National Development Program, and seven seasons on a club that qualified for the playoffs once while he was there.

He is 26, has 111 career points and 13 goals behind him, two short of his career best. Detroit signed him for one year to play a fourth line. The role is right and the seven Arizona years mean the possession numbers should be read gently.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    35.3% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he finishes checks, works the wall and does not cross the line”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “he finishes checks, works the wall and does not cross the line”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 967 minutes

Expected goals
43%
11th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
42.3%
6th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 30 for, 40 against. Expected: 32.0 and 42.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
7th
Numbers
11th

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
70th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.74 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.40 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
82.7 mph
26th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with ARI · 967 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
ARI took 45.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.0% — 2.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 967 minutes at five-on-five — 55th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nick Ritchie44.9%41.5%47.7%
Travis Boyd43.0%43.0%40.7%
Jack McBain40.1%44.4%42.3%

44.9% together, 41.5% for him apart and 47.7% for Ritchie apart. He was worse away from Ritchie, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Ritchie did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

156 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 35% from beyond forty.