Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

21

Robby Fabbri

Detroit Red Wings Center

Twenty-eight games, and the 2nd percentile in top speed for a player whose game was speed.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16STL72181937-22520311415.813:19
2016-17STL51111829-16274009112.115:37
2018-19STL32246-46001434.712:39
2019-20STL/DET61151732-332060311113.516:09
2020-21DET3010818+3160055817.217:16
2021-22DET56171330-233560112313.817:20
2022-23DET287916-1223033520.016:00
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—3308088168-761512101657513.915:24

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 9 assists in 28 games, minus-1, 16:00 a night, 35 shots at 20.0 per cent.

He missed 54 games. That is the third season in this book in which he has played fewer than 35 games, and he missed 2017-18 entirely. The knees are why.

38.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 357 minutes, the 2nd percentile — the worst share of any Detroit skater — with his ice at 10-10 against an expectation of 9.72-15.51. On 357 minutes it is not a conclusion, and it is not encouraging either.

Seven seasons, 330 games, 168 points.

The Finesse Game

35 shots at a median of 22 feet, 46 per cent from inside twenty.

Inside forty: 32 shots, seven goals, 21.88 per cent. Beyond forty: 2 shots, none.

He shoots from the slot and converts there at a high rate, and he has done it consistently: 80 goals in 330 games at just under fourteen per cent overall.

85.0 mph at the 12th percentile. The shot is soft and the position is everything.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 185, and the tracking line is the saddest number in this chapter: 20.8 mph at the 2nd percentile with 0.4 bursts over twenty a game at the 16th.

He was drafted 21st overall as a speed-and-skill forward. Repeated knee reconstructions later, the feed measures him among the slowest skaters in the league — across only 28 games, which is the caveat attached to every number here.

2.39 miles a game at the 36th percentile is respectable, so the work rate is intact.

22 penalty minutes in 28 games is a high rate and reads as a player compensating.

The Intangibles

21st overall in 2014 out of Guelph, a 37-point rookie season in St. Louis at 20, and then the injuries.

He has played 330 games in eight seasons — an average of 41 — and produced at better than half a point a game throughout. The player is still in there.

What the tracking says is that the thing he was drafted for is gone, and he is scoring anyway, from twenty feet.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He shoots from the slot and converts there at a high rate”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 357 minutes

Expected goals
38.5%
2nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
37.8%
0th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 10 against. Expected: 9.7 and 15.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
9th
Numbers
2nd

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 28 games

Top speed
20.8 mph
8th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.36 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.0 mph
36th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 357 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
DET took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 38.5% — 7.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
357 minutes at five-on-five — 8th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Andrew Copp34.0%41.4%43.9%
Ben Chiarot43.3%35.9%42.3%
Moritz Seider26.7%44.6%48.7%

34.0% together, 41.4% for him apart and 43.9% for Copp apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

52 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.