This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Dylan Larkin
Detroit Red Wings Center
Seventy-nine points, a career high at 26, on the club with the fewest chances in the league.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | DET | 80 | 23 | 22 | 45 | +11 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 221 | 10.4 | 16:33 |
| 2016-17 | DET | 80 | 17 | 15 | 32 | -28 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 9.6 | 16:09 |
| 2017-18 | DET | 82 | 16 | 47 | 63 | -9 | 61 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 232 | 6.9 | 19:51 |
| 2018-19 | DET | 76 | 32 | 41 | 73 | -6 | 75 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 287 | 11.2 | 21:51 |
| 2019-20 | DET | 71 | 19 | 34 | 53 | -21 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 8.5 | 21:15 |
| 2020-21 | DET | 44 | 9 | 14 | 23 | -14 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 6.7 | 20:24 |
| 2021-22 | DET | 71 | 31 | 38 | 69 | -18 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 212 | 14.6 | 19:39 |
| 2022-23 | DET | 80 | 32 | 47 | 79 | -7 | 45 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 244 | 13.1 | 19:33 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 584 | 179 | 258 | 437 | -92 | 372 | 45 | 6 | 23 | 1731 | 10.3 | 19:18 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
32 goals and 47 assists in 80 games — 79 points, a career high — minus-7, 19:33 a night, 244 shots at 13.1 per cent.
49.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 46th percentile, with his ice at 45-59 against an expectation of 43.09-44.38. Two better than the chances at the offensive end and fifteen worse at the defensive one, which on a club whose goaltending graded minus-20 is where it comes from.
Eight seasons, 584 games, 437 points, all in Detroit.
The Finesse Game
244 shots at a median of 25 feet, 39 per cent from inside twenty and 19 per cent from beyond forty.
Inside forty: 193 shots on goal, 31 goals, 16.06 per cent. Beyond forty: 41 shots, two goals.
155 of his attempts were wrist shots, which describes exactly the player: he shoots off the rush, in stride, from the top of the circle inward.
91.9 mph at the 58th percentile. The shot is average and the release and the speed carrying him into it are not.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 204, and this is one of the few genuinely fast tracking lines in Detroit: 23.0 mph at the 85th percentile, 2.6 bursts over twenty a game at the 94th, and 3.19 miles a game at the 90th.
He is quick, he gets to speed often and he covers ground. On a roster containing the third-slowest forward in the league he is the outlier, and the club’s whole transition game runs through it.
45 penalty minutes in 80 games. He plays through traffic and finishes checks for a first-line centre, which is the reason for the captaincy as much as anything on the scoresheet.
The Intangibles
15th overall in 2014 out of Michigan, a Detroit-area kid captaining Detroit, and eight seasons of being the reason to watch a club that has not made the playoffs since 2016.
He is 27, has a career high behind him, and has played five playoff games — all of them in his rookie spring, the last time Detroit qualified.
That is the whole of it. Everything measured here says a legitimate first-line centre; the record says 79 points on an 80-point team.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
80 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“23.0 mph at the 85th percentile, 2.6 bursts over twenty a game at the 94th, and 3.19 miles a game at the 90th.”
“a Detroit-area kid captaining Detroit, and eight seasons of being the reason to watch a club that has not made the playoffs since 2016”
“he shoots off the rush, in stride, from the top of the circle inward”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,056 minutes
- Expected goals
- 49.3%
- 46th pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.3%
- 47th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 45 for, 59 against. Expected: 43.1 and 44.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 42 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games
- Top speed
- 23.0 mph
- 88th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 2.65 a game
- Distance
- 3.19 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 91.9 mph
- 78th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 1056 minutes at five-on-five
- David Perron44%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- DET took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.3% — 3.1 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,056 minutes at five-on-five — 64th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond | 46.4% | 52.2% | 39.4% |
| David Perron | 54.2% | 44.3% | 45.4% |
| Moritz Seider | 51.8% | 47.4% | 44.1% |
46.4% together, 52.2% for him apart and 39.4% for Raymond apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Raymond behind.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
338 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.