Vegas Golden Knights

What the Quant Says

266 goals, 12th in the league, off the 4th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.918 per 60). Eight places of difference in the wrong direction, and finishing rated minus-5.8, 26th.

Jonathan Marchessault scored thirty and took sixty-six points at 5-9 and 185 pounds, off the 14th-most shots per 60 of 393 forwards.

Chandler Stephenson took sixty-four — a career high by twenty-nine — from the 38th-fewest shots per 60 of the same 393, at a 16.8 per cent conversion.

Then it thins abruptly. Nicolas Roy's thirty-nine is the third-highest forward total on the roster and it is a career high by twenty-four. Reilly Smith took thirty-eight in fifty-six games, William Karlsson thirty-five in sixty-seven, Mark Stone thirty in thirty-seven, Jack Eichel twenty-five in thirty-four.

Shea Theodore added fifty-two points from the blue line and Alex Pietrangelo forty-four.

Two defencemen were the third and fourth highest scorers on this club.

What the Scout Says

Jonathan Marchessault is the file worth reading twice. Thirty goals and sixty-six points at 5-9 and 185 pounds, off 11.28 shots per 60 — the 14th-most of 393 forwards — at a 12.0 per cent conversion that is merely the 56th percentile. The goals are volume, not touch, and volume repeats.

His ice went 46-42 against an expectation of 53.54-44.28. Seven and a half short in front. He is 31, he shot at his own career rate, and his linemates did not.

Chandler Stephenson is the opposite risk. Sixty-four points — a career high by twenty-nine — from the 38th-lowest shot rate of 393 forwards at the 39th-highest conversion. Sixty-one per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet, so the shot chart supports some of it; fifty-seven career goals from 358 career shots before this season does not support all of it.

William Karlsson controlled the play better than anybody on the roster and scored twelve goals. 56.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 39th-best of 393 forwards, 57.8 per cent of the attempts the 95th percentile, and his ice was nine goals short of its expectation — the largest gap in the chapter. He has a 43-goal season on his record and nothing above twenty-four since.

Jack Eichel played thirty-four games after an artificial disc replacement and produced 15.02 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60. Only eleven of the 365 qualified forwards were above that, and he is not in the pool. The chip says the legs came back.

Mark Stone recorded 4.95 takeaways per 60 across thirty-seven games. The best figure among the 393 qualified forwards is Auston Matthews at 3.669. Stone is not in the pool and this is not a league lead, and it is still the most striking rate in the chapter.

Below them the bottom six is genuinely good. Nicolas Roy took thirty-nine points off the 10th-shortest median shot of 393 forwards at 6-4. William Carrier took the 16th-fastest top speed of 365 and the 5th-softest shot of the same 365 to a 56.1 per cent expected-goal share on eleven and a half minutes. Brett Howden converted 23.1 per cent — 3rd of 393 — on the lowest shot rate on the club.

What the Quant Says

248 goals against, 15th in the league, off the 17th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.613 per 60). The structure and the result agree, which is the one part of this season that behaved.

Alex Pietrangelo played 24:39 a night and recorded 2.830 takeaways per 60 — the most of all 202 defencemen who played forty games.

Shea Theodore took 23:08 with the 9th-fewest hits of the same 202 and the 8th-most takeaways. Two of the eight best stick-checkers at the position in the league were on this blue line.

Brayden McNabb blocked 7.901 shots per 60, the most of all 202, out of the hardest chair on the roster — 43.2 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 132nd-lowest of 652 skaters.

Alec Martinez blocked 8.03 per 60 across twenty-six games, which is higher still and does not qualify.

Zach Whitecloud went plus-21 out of the second-hardest chair on the blue line, and his ice outscored its expectation by nine and a half goals — the only Vegas skater whose minutes did.

Nicolas Hague conceded eight more than his expectation, and his 1,114-attempt pairing with Pietrangelo produced a 46.6 per cent share. Pietrangelo apart from him was 55.6.

What the Scout Says

This blue line holds two league-leading figures and they point in opposite directions.

Alex Pietrangelo recorded 2.830 takeaways per 60, the most of all 202 qualified defencemen, ahead of Erik Karlsson and Adam Fox. He recorded 2.008 hits per 60, the 36th-fewest. That is a stick and not a body, at 24:39 a night and 32 years old, across eighty games.

Brayden McNabb blocked 7.901 shots per 60, the most of all 202. He was measured at 20.4 mph — the 2nd-slowest top speed of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers — and 0.088 sprints over twenty miles an hour per 60, which is the fewest of all 192. Both extremes at once, out of 43.2 per cent offensive-zone starts, the hardest chair on the roster by fifty places. His ice came out level at both ends of a ledger nobody else was asked to carry.

Shea Theodore is the one this book is built to notice. 6-2 and 197 pounds, fifty-two points and 23:08 a night, the 9th-fewest hits of 202 defencemen, the 8th-most takeaways, and 8.996 miles per 60 — the 11th-most of 192. A light defenceman who skates a great deal, hits nobody, and whose ice conceded seven fewer goals than the model asked. The defensive half of his ledger is better than his reputation and the club still plays him nineteen seconds a night short-handed.

Zach Whitecloud is undrafted, went plus-21, and his ice outscored its expectation by nine and a half goals from the second-hardest chair on the blue line. He also shot 8.5 per cent from a 53-foot median, which will not recur, and blocked at the 15th-most of 202, which will.

Nicolas Hague is the problem. 6-6 and 245 pounds, the 9th-most shots per 60 of 202 defencemen at a 3.4 per cent conversion, a penalty differential of minus 0.68 per 60 — the 16th-worst at the position — and eight more goals against on his ice than the model asked. His 1,114-attempt pairing with Pietrangelo was the largest on the club and produced 46.6 per cent. Pietrangelo apart from him was 55.6. Nine points of share, on the biggest sample this roster generated.

Alec Martinez, at 35, blocked 8.03 shots per 60 across twenty-six games from the softest chair on the blue line, and Ben Hutton took a third pair to a goal ahead in front and a goal and a half fewer against.

What the Quant Says

Plus-4.6 goals saved above expectation, tied with St Louis for 10th in the league.

Three goaltenders split eighty-two games and none of them is on this roster as an established starter. Robin Lehner took forty-four and does not appear in this chapter. Laurent Brossoit took twenty-four at .8946 on 588 shots. Logan Thompson took nineteen at .9139 on 569.

Adin Hill arrives from San Jose with a .9059 on 648 shots, which is 33rd of the fifty-three goaltenders who played twenty-five games.

The five-on-five ledger: 166 against an expectation of 170.6. Four and a half fewer than the model asked, across a whole season and three men.

Hill has 1,972 career shots at .9082 across five seasons. Brossoit has 2,809 at .9053 across eight. Thompson has 571 at .9142 across two.

Not one of the three has ever faced seven hundred shots in a season.

What the Scout Says

This is the least settled crease in the batch and the club's largest single question.

Eighty-two games split three ways. Robin Lehner took forty-four and does not appear in this chapter. Laurent Brossoit took twenty-four at .8946 across 588 shots. Logan Thompson took nineteen at .9139 across 569. Adin Hill arrives from San Jose with 648 shots at .9059, 33rd of the fifty-three goaltenders who played twenty-five games.

Not one of the three has faced seven hundred shots in a season, and between them they have 200 career NHL appearances.

And the club rated plus-4.6 in goaltending anyway, tied for 10th, with 166 conceded at five-on-five against an expectation of 170.6. That is a perfectly adequate season produced by nobody in particular.

Brossoit's record is the strange one. Eight seasons, 2,809 shots, .9053 overall — and the two largest samples in it are 652 shots at .9248 and 588 at .8946. Thirty hundredths of a point apart, on the two years that should carry the most weight. There is no trend in that file to extrapolate.

Hill's is the readable one. The two smallest of his five seasons are the two worst, and the three most recent all sit between .9059 and .9184 across 1,521 shots. Twenty-five games is his career high.

Thompson is undrafted out of Brock University and 25, with one season and the best number of the three. It is also the smallest.

A club with the 4th-best even-strength chance rate in hockey is asking three men who have never been starters to split a season. The record says the likeliest outcome is around .910 and the bracket around it is very wide.

What the Quant Says

12th in the league at 6.628 expected goals per 60, over 4:38 a night — the 21st-largest workload. A middling unit given middling time.

Chandler Stephenson took 2:16 a night and scored six, the club's highest total. Jonathan Marchessault 2:07 and five, Mark Stone 2:41 and three, Jack Eichel 2:57 and three, Reilly Smith 1:48 and three, Alex Pietrangelo 2:13 and three.

Shea Theodore ran a point at 2:28 a night — the 85th percentile among defencemen — and scored one. Twenty-three per cent of his fifty-two points came there, which for a defenceman with his hands is low.

Pietrangelo took thirty per cent of his points on the unit and Marchessault thirty.

Phil Kessel arrives having taken 2:44 a night in Arizona with twenty-seven per cent of fifty-two points on it.

Nobody on this roster took more than three minutes a night with the man advantage. That is unusual, and on a unit ranked 12th it is not obviously wrong.

What the Scout Says

Twelfth in the league on the 21st-largest workload. Slightly better than average, given slightly less time than average.

Nobody took three minutes a night. Jack Eichel's 2:57 is the largest share on the roster and it came across thirty-four games. Mark Stone took 2:41 across thirty-seven. The two men the unit was designed around played seventy-one games between them.

Chandler Stephenson's 2:16 produced six goals, the club's highest, and twenty-two per cent of his sixty-four points. Jonathan Marchessault's 2:07 produced five and thirty per cent of his sixty-six.

Shea Theodore ran the point at 2:28 — the 85th percentile among defencemen — for one goal and twenty-three per cent of fifty-two points. Alex Pietrangelo took 2:13 for three goals and thirty per cent of forty-four. Two defencemen splitting the first unit is a defensible arrangement and neither of them scored on it.

Phil Kessel arrives having taken 2:44 a night in Arizona with twenty-seven per cent of fifty-two points on it, from a club whose power play rated 32nd in the league.

The reading is that this unit was never healthy enough to be judged, and a 12th-place finish out of that is the encouraging half of it.

What the Quant Says

23rd in the league at 7.366 expected goals against per 60, over 4:15 a night — the 31st-largest workload. Only New Jersey spent less time short-handed.

That combination is the whole unit: a below-average kill that was barely used.

Brayden McNabb took 2:38 a night at the 86th percentile among defencemen, Alex Pietrangelo 2:27 at the 77th, Zach Whitecloud 1:41 and Nicolas Hague 1:32.

Among forwards, Reilly Smith took 1:46 at the 84th percentile with two short-handed goals, Chandler Stephenson 1:33, William Karlsson 1:32 with two short-handed goals, Nicolas Roy 1:20.

Shea Theodore took nineteen seconds a night, the 11th percentile, which is a deliberate exemption for the club's largest offensive workload on the blue line.

Six short-handed goals across the roster is a high figure for a unit ranked 23rd, and it belongs to the four forwards above.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-third in the league at 7.366 expected goals against per 60, over the 31st-largest workload. Only New Jersey killed fewer minutes.

Read those together before reading either alone. This club took almost no penalties and was below average at killing the ones it took.

The discipline is genuine and it is spread across the roster. William Karlsson took 0.245 penalties per 60, the 24th-fewest of 393 forwards, and Reilly Smith 0.241, the 22nd-fewest. Alex Pietrangelo took 0.49 per 60 at the 31st percentile.

The exceptions are two. Nicolas Hague's minus 0.68 penalty differential per 60 is the 16th-worst of 202 defencemen. Keegan Kolesar drew 1.36 per 60 at the 89th percentile and took 1.36 at the 88th — a net of exactly nothing, and sixty-eight penalty minutes.

Brayden McNabb carries the unit at 2:38 a night with the most blocks per 60 at his position. Pietrangelo takes 2:27, Zach Whitecloud 1:41, Nicolas Hague 1:32. Among forwards it is Smith at 1:46, Chandler Stephenson at 1:33, Karlsson at 1:32 and Nicolas Roy at 1:20.

Six short-handed goals came off it, which for a 23rd-ranked kill is a lot and says something about who is on it rather than how it defends.