Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

9

Chandler Stephenson

Vegas Golden Knights Center

Sixty-four points off the 38th-fewest shots per 60 of 393 forwards, at 16.8 per cent.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16WSH9000-3200020.07:51
2016-17WSH40000000030.08:53
2017-18WSH6761218+1380003616.711:52
2018-19WSH645611-1300103613.912:07
2019-20WSH/VGK65111526+24161257315.114:19
2020-21VGK51142135+22292158316.918:06
2021-22VGK79214364+52661312516.819:19
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—3395797154+4881951335815.914:55

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 21 goals and 43 assists at 19:19 a night, plus-5, twenty-six penalty minutes, 125 shots, six power-play goals, one short-handed and three game-winners. Seventy-seventh overall in 2012 by Washington — the third round — seven seasons, 339 games, 154 points.

The Finesse Game

Sixty-four points is a career high by twenty-nine. The previous best was thirty-five, in fifty-one games, in this same uniform.

4.91 shots per 60 is the 38th-lowest of the 393 forwards who played forty games, and a 16.8 per cent conversion is the 39th-highest of the same 393. Almost nobody in the league takes fewer shots and almost nobody converts more of them, which is the player in one sentence and also the reason to be careful with the sixty-four.

Sixty-one per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at a 20-foot median, so the conversion has a shot chart behind it rather than luck alone — but twenty-one goals from 125 shots is a rate that has to hold, and everything he had done before this season was fifty-seven goals from 358 shots.

2.35 even-strength points per 60 is the 78th percentile and twenty-two per cent of his points came on the power play, off 2:16 a night with the man advantage.

His ice went 59-56 against an expectation of 52.78-51.26 — six ahead in front and five more against, the busiest ledger on the club and very nearly a wash.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 201 pounds, and twenty-six penalty minutes in seventy-nine games.

2.67 hits per 60 is the 33rd percentile and 1.73 blocks the 51st, against 1:33 a night short-handed at the 74th.

The Intangibles

23.3 mph and 12.78 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60, the 18th-most of the 365 forwards the tracking measures, at 19:19 a night.

9.99 miles per 60 is the 80th percentile, so the sprint count is not an artefact of a short shift — he covers ground, and he covers it fast.

He is 28, a third-round pick who spent four seasons in Washington scoring at a third of this rate, and 19:19 a night was itself a career high by seventy-three seconds. The speed is real and it is measured; the shot volume is genuinely low and the conversion genuinely high. A 60-point centre who takes five shots per 60 is a man whose next season depends on other people finishing, and Vegas finished 26th in the league at exactly that.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:47 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “23.3 mph and 12.78 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60, the 18th-most of the 365 forwards the tracking measures, at 19:19 a night.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,168 minutes

Expected goals
50.7%
61st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.1%
66th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 56 against. Expected: 52.8 and 51.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
61st

The report ranks him 29 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
23.3 mph
94th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
4.11 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.6 mph
92nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1168 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VGK took 52.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.7% — 2.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,168 minutes at five-on-five — 82nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Pietrangelo47.5%53.0%54.4%
Shea Theodore54.1%48.5%52.0%
Evgenii Dadonov50.4%51.0%55.2%

47.5% together, 53.0% for him apart and 54.4% for Pietrangelo apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

157 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.