Vegas Golden Knights

What the Quant Says

267 goals, 12th in the league. Middling, from a club that was middling at making chances.

Vegas created 2.570 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 14th, and took 48.6 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 21st, and 51.2 per cent of the expected goals, 13th. Twenty- first in volume and thirteenth in quality is a club that shoots from better places than it shoots often.

At five-on-five it scored 176 goals against an expectation of 168.2 — a surplus of 7.8, 11th in the league.

Jack Eichel had 31 goals and 68 points in 63 games, William Karlsson 30 and 60 in 70, Mark Stone 16 and 53 in 56 and Ivan Barbashev 19 and 45 in all 82.

Shea Theodore had 37 assists in 47 games from the blue line and Noah Hanifin 47 points in 80. Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, Michael Amadio, Paul Cotter and William Carrier have all gone.

What the Scout Says

A 68-point centre in 63 games, a 30-goal centre on the third line, and a captain who played 56.

Jack Eichel is 6-2 and 208 and took 328 attempts at a 31-foot median, 258 of them on goal — the most of anybody on the club — converting 11.2 per cent against a career 10.78. He carries the puck through the neutral zone at speed and shoots from the top of the circle before the gap closes; 31 goals and 68 points in 63 games is a first-line season in three-quarters of one.

William Karlsson scored 30 goals on 175 shots at 17.1 per cent and took 58.2 per cent of the chances over 872 minutes — the highest share on the club. Mark Stone had 16 goals and 37 assists in 56 games and has 567 points in 640 career games.

Tomas Hertl arrives properly with 220 career goals in 718 games and an 18-foot median attempt with 56 per cent of them from inside twenty feet. Ivan Barbashev played all 82 and took 49 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty. Nicolas Roy's median attempt was 15 feet — the closest chart on the club.

Alexander Holtz arrives from New Jersey, seventh overall in 2020, with 16 goals in all 82 games. Victor Olofsson arrives from Buffalo with 90 goals in 314 games and Tanner Pearson from Montreal with 138 in 644.

What the Quant Says

Vegas allowed 2.467 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 12th in the league, and conceded 245 goals, 12th. The two figures agree exactly.

At five-on-five it conceded 163 goals against an expectation of 160.5 — three more than the chances called for, and the club's goaltending came in 2.5 goals worse than the shots it faced, 17th in the league.

Alex Pietrangelo played 64 games at 23:34 with 29 assists, and his ice went 55-61 against an expectation of 50.48-49.60 — eleven goals of goaltending against him. Noah Hanifin played 80 at 23:37 and finished plus-19, with his ice at 72-57 against an expectation of 61.50-57.31.

Brayden McNabb is 6-4 and played all 82 at 19:21 on a plus-18, with 509 career penalty minutes. Nicolas Hague is 6-6 and 245 and took 82 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet. Zach Whitecloud is undrafted and has a career plus-43 in 247 games.

Shea Theodore had 5 goals and 37 assists in 47 games at 22:05 and has 235 career assists in 497 games. Alec Martinez has gone to Chicago.

What the Scout Says

A thousand games on one pairing, and a 6-6 defenceman on another.

Alex Pietrangelo has played 1,016 games with 604 points and a career plus-112, and played 64 last season at 23:34 with 29 assists. His ice went 55-61 against an expectation of 50.48-49.60 — eleven goals of goaltending against a defenceman who did nothing wrong.

Noah Hanifin is 6-3 and had 13 goals and 34 assists in 80 games at 23:37 on a plus-19, with 286 points in 678 career games. Shea Theodore had 37 assists in 47 games and has 235 career assists in 497.

Brayden McNabb is 6-4 and 215 with 509 career penalty minutes and a career plus-116, and played all 82 games. Nicolas Hague is 6-6 and 245 — the fifth-heaviest man in this edition — and took 82 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet.

Zach Whitecloud is undrafted with a career plus-43 in 247 games. Ben Hutton took 54.4 per cent of the chances over 611 minutes and Kaedan Korczak's ice went 20-9 in 26 games.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 2.5 goals worse than the chances it faced, 17th in the league. On a club that was twelfth at preventing them.

Adin Hill went 19-12-2 with a .9091 and a 2.71 in 35 games, with 2 shutouts, facing 979 shots. His career line across 136 games is a .9096, which is almost exactly what he did last season.

Logan Thompson went 25-14-5 with a .9083 and a 2.70 in 46 games and is now in Washington.

Ilya Samsonov arrives from Toronto, where he went 23-7-8 with an .8896 and a 3.13 in 40 games — tied for the third-lowest save percentage of any goaltender who played twenty-five games. He has 102 career wins in 171 games and a career .9036, including a .9189 in 42 games two seasons ago.

Akira Schmid arrives from New Jersey with a .8950 in 19 games and a career .8989 across 43.

A club that finished seventeenth in goaltending has replaced the man who played forty-six games with a man who posted the third-lowest save percentage in hockey. Adin Hill is the answer if there is one.

What the Scout Says

A crease split three ways, with the man who played most of it gone.

Adin Hill is 6-4 and 222 and went 19-12-2 with a .9091 and a 2.71 in 35 games. He is large and plays deep and square, covering the net by occupying it rather than by challenging the shooter; a career .9096 across 136 games says the level is real and the sample is a third of a career.

Ilya Samsonov arrives from Toronto with an .8896 in 40 games — tied for the third-lowest figure of any goaltender who played twenty-five games — and a career .9036 across 171. He posted a .9189 in 42 games two seasons ago, which is the argument; three of his five seasons have finished under .9020, which is the other one.

Akira Schmid is 6-5 and 190 and arrives from New Jersey with an .8950 in 19 games and a career .8989 across 43. He was a fifth-round pick and is 24.

Logan Thompson played 46 games and has gone to Washington. Vegas has replaced its most-used goaltender with a man whose save percentage was tied for third-worst in hockey and a 24-year-old who has never been above .9220. Everything now depends on Adin Hill playing more than thirty-five games.

What the Quant Says

24th in the league at 6.307 expected goals per 60, over 5:08 a night, the nineteenth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. A bad rate on ordinary volume, and the weakest department on the club.

Jack Eichel scored 11 power-play goals, William Karlsson 7, Tomas Hertl 6, Noah Hanifin 5, Mark Stone 4, Ivan Barbashev 3, Shea Theodore 2, Nicolas Roy 1, Alexander Holtz 1, Tanner Pearson 1 and Victor Olofsson 1.

Jack Eichel has 57 career power-play goals in 539 games, the most on the roster, and Tomas Hertl 51 in 718. Mark Stone has 46 in 640, Alex Pietrangelo 38 in 1,016 and Victor Olofsson 35 in 314.

Victor Olofsson arrives from Buffalo with 35 career power-play goals in 314 games — the highest rate of anybody on this roster — and 90 goals in total. Twenty-fourth by rate is the number this club spent its summer on.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-fourth by rate, with five men who have scored thirty-five on one.

Jack Eichel scored 11 power-play goals and has 57 in 539 career games — the most on the roster. He plays the half-wall and shoots from it.

William Karlsson scored 7 and has 29 in 685. Tomas Hertl scored 6 and has 51 in 718, and at 6-3 and 220 he is the net front. Mark Stone scored 4 and has 46 in 640.

Alex Pietrangelo takes the point with 38 career power-play goals in 1,016 games, and Shea Theodore scored 2 and has 14 in 497. Noah Hanifin scored 5 and has 13 in 678.

Victor Olofsson arrives with 35 career power-play goals in 314 games, which is the highest rate on this roster by a distance and the clearest reason he was signed. A unit that finished twenty-fourth needs the shot he brings more than it needs another passer.

What the Quant Says

16th in the league at 7.031 expected goals against per 60, over 4:31 a night — the fewest shorthanded minutes of any club in hockey. An ordinary rate over the least ice anybody had to defend.

Mark Stone scored 2 shorthanded goals, Brett Howden 2, William Karlsson 1, Nicolas Roy 1, Keegan Kolesar 1 and Tomas Hertl 1.

William Karlsson has 12 career shorthanded goals in 685 games, the most on the roster, and Mark Stone 9 in 640. Tomas Hertl has 6 in 718 and Ivan Barbashev 5 in 515.

Brayden McNabb has 509 career penalty minutes in 740 games and Keegan Kolesar 215 in 275, which is where a club with the least shorthanded ice in the league gets its penalties from anyway.

Four and a half minutes a night is the smallest shorthanded workload in hockey and a sixteenth- place rate over it. Discipline is doing more of the work here than the kill is.

What the Scout Says

Sixteenth by rate over the least shorthanded ice in hockey.

William Karlsson has 12 career shorthanded goals in 685 games, the most on the roster, and scored 1. Mark Stone has 9 in 640 and scored 2; Brett Howden scored 2 and has 2 in 351 career games.

Brett Howden took 45.5 per cent of the chances at five-on-five over 856 minutes, the lowest share of any Vegas forward who played more than five hundred minutes, which is the defensive-zone assignment showing up where it always does.

Brayden McNabb is 6-4 and has 509 career penalty minutes in 740 games and Keegan Kolesar 215 in 275 at 6-2 and 216. Nicolas Hague is 6-6 and 245. The kill is built out of size rather than out of speed.

Four minutes and thirty-one seconds a night is the least shorthanded ice any club in hockey had to defend. Sixteenth by rate over that is the one number in this chapter worth worrying about.