Vegas Golden Knights

What the Quant Says

265 goals from the fifth-best chance share in the league, with finishing essentially neutral at 1.3 below expectation.

Jack Eichel put up 90 points with 63 assists at the 92nd percentile. Mitch Marner arrived and posted 80 points and the 92nd percentile — better than anything Toronto managed with him. Mark Stone scored 28 in 60 games taking 63 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at the 96th percentile. Tomas Hertl scored 24 with 13 on the power play from a median of 17 feet. Ivan Barbashev added 61 points taking half his shots from inside 20.

Braeden Bowman, undrafted at 23, took 66 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at the 88th percentile. This is a deep, well-shaped attack in which every forward of consequence finished above the 83rd percentile.

What the Scout Says

3 of the finest offensive players in the league and a shared reluctance to go where it hurts. Jack Eichel scores from range rather than the slot, which for a 6-2 centre is a choice rather than a limitation, and the assist total is top-5 in the league. Mitch Marner has never been comfortable in the paint — he does not forecheck heavily, does not win a wall battle and does not go to the net front, which has been the criticism for a decade and has never been settled by anything except more points. Victor Olofsson has an excellent release and has spent a career living in the left circle, with no forechecking, no wall work and no net-front presence at all.

What balances it is a group of men who do go inside. Mark Stone shoots from some of the best ice in the league and takes pucks off people to get there. Tomas Hertl sets up in the slot and cannot be moved, which is where most of his goals come from, and 2 knee reconstructions mean the skating never fully returned. Ivan Barbashev works hard at a rate that produced the best season of his life and stayed remarkably disciplined doing it. Brett Howden is a checking centre with an excellent shot chart. The one to watch is Braeden Bowman, who goes to the interior and holds his ground better than a 22-year-old usually can.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league in even-strength expected goals against at 2.25 per 60. Only Ottawa was better, and Ottawa had the same problem behind it.

Shea Theodore posted the 86th percentile and was plus-19. Noah Hanifin the 85th. Brayden McNabb, at 35 and in his 885th game, the 83rd. Jeremy Lauzon the 76th with 89 penalty minutes. The expected goals ran in Vegas's favour on every pairing.

Rasmus Andersson arrives from Calgary with 17 goals from the blue line and 23:12 a night — and had the goals go 64-65 against him with the chances level, which is a Calgary problem rather than his. Zach Whitecloud and Kaedan Korczak have gone.

What the Scout Says

Mobile at the top, heavy at the bottom, and unusually well matched. Shea Theodore has the best feet on the club and among the better sets in the league — he escapes forechecks by turning through them and carries the puck out cleanly every time — and he loses net-front battles and does not clear a crease, with the skating and the reads covering most of it. Noah Hanifin's skating is the whole reason a 5th overall pick has played 800 games, and he is strong enough for the front of his net without being physical about it.

Rasmus Andersson brings the one thing the group did not have: a point shot among the heaviest from any blue line in the league, backed by 71 penalty minutes of a defenceman who defends his crease and finishes checks, and adequate skating that genuine speed will beat wide. Brayden McNabb is the constant — 20 minutes a night, remarkably disciplined for how he plays, and the same job for 9 years. Jeremy Lauzon hits and fights and holds the front of his net at a third-pair workload. Parker Wotherspoon is all first pass and the first pass is the whole player, and he is moved out of his own crease by heavy forwards.

What the Quant Says

The one thing that went wrong, and it went badly wrong. Vegas's goaltending came in 22.0 goals worse than the chances faced, 31st in the league — behind the second-best defensive structure in hockey.

Carter Hart stopped .8910 across 18 games. Adin Hill stopped .8705 across 27. Carl Lindbom stopped .8730 across 8. Akira Schmid took 34 and is a Panther.

3 goaltenders under .892 in front of a team that allows the second-fewest chances in the league is the cruellest page in this edition. Everything else here is a contender's. Fixing this one position is worth more to Vegas than any other single change available to any club in the book.

What the Scout Says

The reason last season looked the way it did. Adin Hill is very difficult to beat clean when he is square, and the lateral recovery is the weak point and it has slowed; the rebound control is ordinary. He won a Stanley Cup as an emergency starter and was excellent doing it, which is why this club keeps handing him the net.

Carter Hart was regarded as the best goaltending prospect in the world at 19 and the technique is why, and he did not play at all for 2 full seasons before this one — there is no useful projection to make from a partial year, only the observation that it was the least troubling line in the section. Carl Lindbom challenges further out than most and is beaten across the crease when the play moves, and a seventh-round pick forcing his way onto an NHL roster inside 4 years is already a considerable achievement. 3 goaltenders, and the club still does not know which one it has.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league at 8.73 expected goals per 60, behind only Edmonton — on 4:28 a night, 27th in opportunity.

Hertl led it with 13 power-play goals, Stone 9, Andersson 6 elsewhere, Marner 5. An elite unit that rarely gets the ice, which is the same shape as Edmonton's and the same consequence: several goals a season left unclaimed by a club that has the puck too much to draw penalties.

What the Scout Says

On personnel, close to the best in the league. Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel are 2 of the finest distributors in the sport on the same unit, which is a luxury almost nobody can afford — Marner holds it until the kill has committed, Eichel enters with speed nobody can close on. Victor Olofsson's whole career has been the left circle, and he is exactly the finisher that arrangement wants.

The net front is properly staffed. Tomas Hertl sets up in the slot and cannot be moved, and that is where most of his goals came from. Mark Stone works the best ice on the roster. And Rasmus Andersson's arrival gives the point the heavy shot Shea Theodore's game never provided, freeing Theodore to be the mover he is rather than the shooter he is not. There is no missing part on this unit, which makes it the phase that should hold up in a series when the rest of the club is being checked.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league at 5.95 expected goals against per 60 — and Vegas was shorthanded 4:08 a game, 32nd, the least of any club in hockey.

The best combination on this page and possibly in the book: the second-best kill, used less than anyone's. 2nd at even strength, 2nd on the power play, 2nd on the kill, 5th in chance share — there is no phase of the game in which Vegas is outside the top 5, and the club still conceded 250 goals, because the men in the net gave back 22 of them.

What the Scout Says

Hard, experienced and well matched to the job. Nic Dowd takes the hardest defensive minutes on a good club and has done exactly this work for 10 seasons; his 73 penalty minutes are a high total for the ice he sees and they are the cost of playing that role properly. Brett Howden uses his size correctly and kills. Marc Gatcomb exists for defensive-zone draws and does it well enough to have earned a real job. Mark Stone's stick is a genuine shorthanded weapon — few wingers in the league take pucks off people the way he does.

On the back end Brayden McNabb and Jeremy Lauzon between them make the front of the net a place opponents have to earn, and Noah Hanifin can close a gap that heavier men could not. Rasmus Andersson finishes checks and defends his crease. The soft spot is that neither Theodore nor Wotherspoon can win that same ice, and both are among the club's most-used defencemen. The bill for the club's own weight is real — Andersson's 71 penalty minutes and Dowd's 73 are the 2 largest — but this is a group built to spend time a man down and survive it.