Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

27

Shea Theodore

Vegas Golden Knights Defense

The 9th-fewest hits of 202 defencemen, the 8th-most takeaways, and 52 points at 23:08 a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16ANA19358+722012810.719:07
2016-17ANA34279-628101603.317:19
2017-18VGK6162329+5141011444.220:21
2018-19VGK79122537-4204012025.920:06
2019-20VGK71133346+12251142195.922:14
2020-21VGK5383442+28140001615.022:33
2021-22VGK78143852+6241052056.823:08
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—39558165223+481271011310195.721:10

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

78 games, 14 goals and 38 assists at 23:08 a night, plus-6, twenty-four penalty minutes, 205 shots, one power-play goal and five game-winners — the most game-winners on the club. Twenty-sixth overall in 2013 by Anaheim, seven seasons, 395 games, 223 points.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-eight assists and 1.51 even-strength points per 60, the 92nd percentile among defencemen, against a 6.8 per cent shooting rate on 205 shots.

6.82 shots per 60 is the 14th-most of the 202 and 1.995 takeaways per 60 the 8th-most — and the man who leads all 202 defencemen in takeaways plays on the same blue line. Two of the eight best stick-checkers at the position in the league were in this lineup.

A 50-foot median, but seventeen per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet at the 86th percentile. He walks the line and he goes in.

52.7 per cent of the expected goals is the 73rd percentile and 53.2 per cent of the attempts the 80th, out of 55.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 164th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 69-56 against an expectation of 70.85-63.66 — two short in front and seven fewer against. The only defenceman on this club whose minutes beat their expectation by a full seven goals did it in the defensive half of the ledger, which is not where his reputation is.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 197 pounds, and twenty-four penalty minutes in seventy-eight games.

1.230 hits per 60 is the 9th-fewest of all 202 defencemen and 3.23 blocks per 60 the 18th percentile, against 0:19 a night short-handed at the 11th.

He is 197 pounds and the club does not use him that way, and the ledger above says it has been right not to.

The Intangibles

8.996 miles per 60 is the 11th-most of the 192 tracked defencemen, at 22.5 mph and 2.9 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60.

A light defenceman who skates this much and hits this little, at twenty-three minutes a night, is the archetype the modern game has been building toward — and this one is 27, with 165 assists in 395 games and a career plus-48.

Fifty-two points is a career high, and 23:08 is a career high, and both came in the season the club missed. The one number that argues with the file is 2:28 a night on a power play that finished 17th in the league, which for a defenceman with these hands is less than it should be worth.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:15 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “8.996 miles per 60 is the 11th-most of the 192 tracked defencemen, at 22.5 mph and 2.9 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Thirty-eight assists and 1.51 even-strength points per 60, the 92nd percentile among defencemen, against a 6.8 per cent shooting rate on 205 shots.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,501 minutes

Expected goals
52.7%
75th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.2%
79th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 69 for, 56 against. Expected: 70.8 and 63.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
75th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 78 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
85th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.12 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.47 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.5 mph
80th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1501 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VGK took 52.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.7% — level with the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,501 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brayden McNabb49.2%54.6%52.4%
Jonathan Marchessault53.3%52.4%55.7%
Chandler Stephenson54.1%52.0%48.5%

49.2% together, 54.6% for him apart and 52.4% for McNabb apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

277 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 16 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.