Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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33

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights Goaltender

A .9059 that is 33rd of fifty-three, behind the 31st-best attempt share in the league.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2017-18ARI4130143.490129.891
2018-19ARI13750322.761322.901
2019-20ARI13243282.620343.918
2020-21ARI19991462.742530.913
2021-22SJS2510111612.662648.906
2022-23 so far——————————
Career—74293251812.7451972.908

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

25 games for San Jose, 10-11-1, a .9059 save percentage and a 2.66 goals-against, two shutouts on 648 shots. That .9059 is 33rd of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games. Seventy-sixth overall in 2015 by Arizona — the third round — five seasons, 74 games.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 222 pounds, and 26 years old.

Five seasons and 1,972 career shots at .9082. The years read .8915 across 129 shots, .9006 across 322, .9184 across 343, .9132 across 530 and .9059 across 648.

The trend inside that is the only real information in the file: the two worst years are the two smallest and the three most recent are all between .9059 and .9184. Twenty-five games is a career high, and 648 shots is a career high by 118.

Five seasons and he has never faced seven hundred shots in one of them.

The Mental Game

San Jose rated 20th in the league in goaltending at minus-8.9 goals saved above expectation, and the crease also carried James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen.

The skaters in front finished 31st in the league in attempt share. Only Arizona controlled less of the puck, and San Jose still allowed 264 goals rather than the three hundred that share usually buys, which is the club-level version of the alibi.

A .9059 on 648 shots behind the second-worst possession club in hockey is a genuinely difficult number to read. It is below the league median and it was produced in a building where every goaltender was below it.

The Intangibles

Nothing here measures how he tracks a puck through traffic, what he does with a rebound, or how he handles the puck behind the net.

What it measures is 1,972 shots at .9082 across five seasons, none of them a starter’s workload.

He arrives at a club that rated 11th in goaltending, that finished 8th in the league in attempt share and 4th in expected goals for per sixty at even strength, and that missed the sixteen anyway. Vegas’s crease took 44 games from Robin Lehner, 24 from Laurent Brossoit and 19 from Logan Thompson last season, and Lehner does not appear in this chapter. What Hill is being asked for is thirty-five to forty starts, which is ten more than he has ever made, and the record says the number he would produce is somewhere near .910 with a wide bracket around it.