Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

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13

Jake Leschyshyn

Vegas Golden Knights Center

A 40.3 per cent expected-goal share, the worst attached to any skater in this chapter.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22VGK41246-28000355.711:18
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—41246-28000355.711:18

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

41 games, 2 goals and 4 assists at 11:18 a night, minus-2, eight penalty minutes, 35 shots. Sixty-second overall in 2017 by Vegas — the second round — one season, 41 games, 6 points.

Four hundred and thirty-four minutes of five-on-five ice is short of the five hundred this book requires, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

Two goals from thirty-five shots is 5.7 per cent, from a 20-foot median with fifty-nine per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

0.84 even-strength points per 60, and 4.53 shots per 60.

40.3 per cent of the expected goals and 39.8 per cent of the attempts across 434 five-on-five minutes. Both are the worst figures attached to any skater in this chapter, on a club that finished 8th in the league in attempt share.

He started 45.2 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 182nd-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts, which is a genuinely hard chair and does not come close to explaining a thirteen-point gap in share against a club that controlled the puck all year.

His ice went 13-17 against an expectation of 15.31-22.68 — two short in front and five and a half fewer against, which is the one merciful line in the file.

The with-and-without makes it worse. All six of his recorded partners were better without him, and the smallest of those gaps was just under eight points of share.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 196 pounds, and eight penalty minutes in forty-one games.

5.83 hits per 60 and 2.98 blocks, both respectable for eleven minutes, against 0.52 penalties drawn per 60 and 0.52 taken.

The Intangibles

22.5 mph and 11.27 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60, and 10.02 miles per 60 — the sprint count and the ground covered are both good, drawn from forty-one games and a short shift.

A man who skates this hard and controls this little of the play is the shape of a fourth-liner whose legs are ahead of his reads, and at 23 that is the version of the problem worth having.

He is 23, a second-round pick of this club, in his first NHL season. The tracking is encouraging and the possession numbers are as bad as this book records for a Vegas skater. Forty-one games is enough to notice and not enough to conclude.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 434 minutes

Expected goals
40.3%
4th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
39.8%
1st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 17 against. Expected: 15.3 and 22.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
4th

The report ranks him 34 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 41 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.12 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.89 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.6 mph
64th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 434 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VGK took 52.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 40.3% — 12.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
434 minutes at five-on-five — 15th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Keegan Kolesar36.9%43.1%54.9%
Shea Theodore43.2%38.7%53.7%
Alex Pietrangelo40.8%40.1%53.2%

36.9% together, 43.1% for him apart and 54.9% for Kolesar apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

46 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.