Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

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46

Jonas Rondbjerg

Vegas Golden Knights Right Wing

Thirty games at 10.09 miles per 60 and an 80.3 mph shot.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22VGK3024604000306.710:01
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—3024604000306.710:01

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 games, 2 goals and 4 assists at 10:01 a night, even, four penalty minutes, 30 shots. Sixty-fifth overall in 2017 by Vegas — the third round — one season, 30 games, 6 points.

Two hundred and eighty-eight minutes of five-on-five ice is well short of the five hundred this book requires, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

Two goals from thirty shots is 6.7 per cent, from a 25-foot median with fifty-five per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

1.26 even-strength points per 60 off 5.99 shots per 60, which for a fourth-line winger playing ten minutes is a reasonable rate of pucks.

50.5 per cent of the expected goals across 288 five-on-five minutes against 45.2 per cent of the attempts — a five-point gap between the two, which says his shifts gave up volume and did not give up much quality.

He started 52.9 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — eighty-two against seventy-three — a soft chair on a small sample.

His ice went 10-10 against an expectation of 10.32-10.13. Exactly level at both ends, which across twenty goals is not a finding.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 206 pounds, and four penalty minutes in thirty games.

2.60 hits per 60 and 2.20 blocks, both low, against 0.60 penalties drawn per 60 and 0.40 taken.

A 206-pound winger who does not hit is an unusual bottom-six profile and there is not enough here to say whether it is a style or a first season.

The Intangibles

10.09 miles per 60 is a lot of ground for ten minutes a night, and 4.99 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 against a 21.2 mph top speed drawn from thirty games.

His shot is 80.3 mph. The softest shot among all 365 qualified forwards is 77.4, so on thirty games he releases the puck softer than all but seven men in that pool.

He is 23, a third-round pick of this club, born in Horsholm and one of five Danes in this edition. The mileage and the even ledger are the encouraging half. A soft shot, no hits and six points in thirty games is the other half, and 288 minutes will not settle which one he is.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 288 minutes

Expected goals
50.5%
59th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.2%
16th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 10 against. Expected: 10.3 and 10.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
33rd
Numbers
59th

The numbers rank him 26 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 30 games

Top speed
21.2 mph
19th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.68 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.3 mph
21st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 288 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VGK took 52.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.5% — 2.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
288 minutes at five-on-five — 7th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake Leschyshyn42.4%57.8%39.6%
Brett Howden48.0%52.3%53.7%
Shea Theodore48.4%51.6%52.9%

42.4% together, 57.8% for him apart and 39.6% for Leschyshyn apart. He was better away from Leschyshyn, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Leschyshyn.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

42 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.