Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

18

Pierre Engvall

New York Islanders Left Wing

Six-foot-six, the 96th percentile in bursts of speed, and the best chance share on the club out of the 16th percentile of zone starts.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20TOR488715+460137211.111:56
2020-21TOR427512+2160016111.511:56
2021-22TOR78152035+13301231549.713:17
2022-23TOR/NYI76171330+83110413113.013:38
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—244474592+2783231141811.212:54

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

17 goals and 13 assists in 76 games — 30 points — split between Toronto and the Islanders, at 13:38 a night. Plus-8, 131 shots at 13.0 per cent, four game-winners, 31 penalty minutes.

55.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 88th percentile and the highest of any forward on this roster — from 185 attacking-zone draws against 263. That is 41.3 per cent, the 16th percentile.

The best chance share on the club, taken from the fourth-hardest deployment on it. Nothing else in this chapter reads like that.

His ice finished 45-37 against an expectation of 43.69-35.16 across 936 minutes.

Four seasons, 244 games, 92 points, a career plus-27.

The Finesse Game

131 shots at a median of 29 feet, and seventeen goals.

Inside twenty: 48 shots on goal and 10 goals, 20.83 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. Twenty to forty: 49 shots and 6 goals. Beyond forty: 34 shots and 1 goal.

Above the league from close on a third-line workload, which for a man whose job description is skating is more than anybody was asking for.

121 wrist shots out of 179 tracked attempts and only four slap. 92.2 mph at the 60th percentile, on four slap shots, so the reading says nothing.

13 assists in seventy-six games is the honest limit of the passing. He carries and he shoots; the play does not go through him.

The Physical Game

6-6 and 208 pounds, with 31 penalty minutes.

2.9 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 96th percentile. Top speed 22.7 mph, the 73rd; 2.31 miles a game, the 32nd.

A 6-6 winger in the top five per cent of the league for how often he reaches full speed is a genuinely rare object, and it is the whole reason a seventh-round pick is a third-line regular.

He forechecks in straight lines at speed and closes on a defenceman before the outlet is made, which is where the chance share comes from.

What he does not do is play heavy. At 208 pounds spread over six and a half feet he is not hard to move off a puck, and the stick work in his own end is ordinary.

The Intangibles

One hundred and eighty-eighth overall in 2014, the seventh round, out of Sweden, and four seasons in Toronto before the deadline trade that brought him here.

47 goals in 244 games at a rate that has climbed every year, and a career plus-27 on clubs where he was never given more than a third line.

He is twenty-seven. The measurements say the skating is real and near the top of the league, and the file’s whole question is whether a man who can do that and finish above the league rate from the slot has ever been given the minutes to find out.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    55.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 47.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.5, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He forechecks in straight lines at speed and closes on a defenceman before the outlet is made, which is where the chance share comes from.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “At 208 pounds spread over six and a half feet he is not hard to move off a puck, and the stick work in his own end is ordinary.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “A 6-6 winger in the top five per cent of the league for how often he reaches full speed is a genuinely rare object, and it is the whole reason a seventh-round pick is a third-line regular.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 936 minutes

Expected goals
55.4%
89th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.4%
87th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 45 for, 37 against. Expected: 43.7 and 35.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
66th
Numbers
89th

The numbers rank him 23 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 76 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
78th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.89 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.31 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.2 mph
79th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with TOR · 685 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NYI took 49.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.4% — 5.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
936 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
David Kampf52.9%57.4%46.3%
Justin Holl49.2%57.7%54.1%
Alexander Kerfoot54.3%55.7%54.6%

52.9% together, 57.4% for him apart and 46.3% for Kampf apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Kampf behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

179 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.