Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

58

Michael Bunting

Carolina Hurricanes Left Wing

Twenty-three goals and 103 penalty minutes in Toronto, and nineteen of the goals came from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ARI510102000520.09:33
2020-21ARI2110313-1123013826.316:42
2021-22TOR79234063+278020217513.115:33
2022-23TOR82232649+2110370417413.215:48
2023-24 so far
Career1875769126+47197120739214.515:38

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

23 goals and 26 assists in 82 games for Toronto — 49 points at 15:48 a night, plus-21, with 103 penalty minutes on 174 shots at 13.22 per cent.

55.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,141 minutes, the 91st percentile. His ice went 65-36 against an expectation of 61.32-48.29 — twelve goals better than the chances predicted at the defensive end, which is a Toronto goaltending story rather than a Bunting one and should be read as such.

He signs in Carolina as a free agent at 28, with 187 NHL games behind him.

The Finesse Game

174 attempts at a median of 18 feet, 55 per cent from inside twenty and 11 per cent from beyond forty. Nineteen of his goals came from inside twenty feet at 19.0 per cent, five from the middle band, and none on nineteen shots from beyond forty.

His career shooting rate is 14.54 per cent across 187 games, which is very high and is a function of where he shoots rather than how. He arrived in the league at 26 and has scored 57 goals since, all of them from the same places.

This is the player Carolina spent last season not having. The club generated more chances than anyone in hockey and finished 31st at converting them; Bunting’s entire professional identity is standing in the one part of the ice where conversion happens.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 186 with 103 penalty minutes, and the minutes are the game rather than an accident of it. He gets under the skin and draws the retaliation, and he takes his share of the answering penalties too.

2.41 miles a game at the 37th percentile and 22.5 mph at the 60th. He is not fast and does not need to be; the work is done in a twenty-foot radius.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick at 117th overall in 2014 by Arizona, and a full NHL season did not arrive until he was 26.

What he is being paid for is a shot chart and a temperament. What Carolina will have to manage is that 103 penalty minutes on a club whose penalty kill was fifth in the league is a cost as well as an asset.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    70.0% of his attempts in the slot, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    62% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He gets under the skin and draws the retaliation”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “standing in the one part of the ice where conversion happens”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,141 minutes

Expected goals
55.9%
91st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.7%
68th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 65 for, 36 against. Expected: 61.3 and 48.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
91st

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 141 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with TOR · 1141 minutes at five-on-five

  • Auston Matthews65%
  • William Nylander45%
  • Mitch Marner35%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
TOR took 54.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.9% — 1.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,141 minutes at five-on-five — 77th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Auston Matthews58.4%50.6%57.4%
William Nylander55.7%56.1%59.5%
Mitchell Marner58.4%54.7%55.8%

58.4% together, 50.6% for him apart and 57.4% for Matthews apart. He was worse away from Matthews, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Matthews did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

253 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.