Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

59

Tyler Bertuzzi

Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing

Eight goals on a career 14 per cent shooter, and twenty-four tip-ins in fifty games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17DET7000-1000030.09:06
2017-18DET4871724-739101838.414:24
2018-19DET73212647+113630413116.016:31
2019-20DET71212748-234030112916.319:19
2020-21DET9527043012025.019:37
2021-22DET68303262-114761518016.719:52
2022-23DET/BOS5082230-8294001077.516:29
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—32692126218-391952011265314.117:26

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

8 goals and 22 assists in 50 games — 30 points — at 16:29 a night between Detroit and Boston. Minus-8, 107 shots at 7.5 per cent, four on the power play, 29 penalty minutes.

Fifty games, which is the shape of every season he has played.

54.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 672 minutes, the 82nd percentile, with his ice at 33-34 against an expectation of 32.71-27.12 — seven more against than the chances predicted.

He started 51.7 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 56th percentile.

The Finesse Game

107 shots at a median of 22 feet.

Inside twenty feet: 51 shots on goal and eight goals — 15.69 per cent, below the league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 28 shots and no goals. Beyond forty: 23 shots and no goals.

Every goal he scored came from inside twenty feet, and fifty-one shots on goal from the other two bands produced nothing.

A 7.5 per cent shooting percentage against a career 14.1 across 326 games. On 107 shots that is about seven goals, which is the difference between the season he had and the one the record says he should have had.

145 tracked attempts, 24 of them tip-ins — a 16.6 per cent share — and 13 slap. 84.9 mph at the 11th percentile.

The file is a net-front forward with better hands than the position usually carries: 30 goals in 2021-22, and 92 in 326 career games at a rate well above the league.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 200 pounds, with 29 penalty minutes in 50 games and 195 in 326 career games.

Top speed 21.3 mph at the 10th percentile, 0.4 bursts above twenty a game at the 22nd, 2.51 miles a game at the 44th. He is slow, and the tracking is unambiguous about it.

He plays in the blue paint, takes the cross-checks that come with it, and gives them back. A 22-foot median and 24 tip-ins in fifty games are what that position produces.

He is an agitator, and referees know it, which is the half of the physical game that costs his club as often as it helps.

He wins pucks along the wall by leaning rather than by hitting, and at 200 pounds without speed that is the whole of the forechecking game.

The Intangibles

Fifty-eighth overall in 2013, the second round, seven seasons, 326 games, 218 points across Detroit and Boston.

92 goals and 126 assists at a career 14.1 per cent, and a minus-39 that is mostly Detroit.

He is twenty-eight, joining a club that finished fourth in the league and has wanted a net-front forward for its power play for years.

The caution is the same one every year: he has played more than seventy games once in seven seasons, in 2018-19. When he is on the ice the finishing rate is real and the chance share is good. The question has never been the player.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He plays in the blue paint, takes the cross-checks that come with it, and gives them back.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He is an agitator, and referees know it, which is the half of the physical game that costs his club as often as it helps.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He wins pucks along the wall by leaning rather than by hitting, and at 200 pounds without speed that is the whole of the forechecking game.”

  • edgeshe lacks it· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “He is slow, and the tracking is unambiguous about it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 672 minutes

Expected goals
54.7%
85th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.6%
76th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 33 for, 34 against. Expected: 32.7 and 27.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
83rd
Numbers
85th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 50 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
20th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.42 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.51 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.9 mph
35th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with DET · 380 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
BOS took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.7% — 1.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
672 minutes at five-on-five — 28th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dylan Larkin54.7%54.7%47.6%
Lucas Raymond50.4%56.1%41.7%
David Pastrnak55.1%54.5%54.3%

54.7% together, 54.7% for him apart and 47.6% for Larkin apart. Larkin was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Larkin than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

140 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 8 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.