This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Mitch Marner

Ninety-nine points, four shorthanded goals, and above the positional rate from all three distances.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	TOR	77	19	42	61	0	38	4	0	5	176	10.8	16:49
2017-18	TOR	82	22	47	69	-1	26	8	0	2	194	11.3	16:23
2018-19	TOR	82	26	68	94	+22	22	3	1	5	233	11.2	19:49
2019-20	TOR	59	16	51	67	+6	16	6	0	2	154	10.4	21:33
2020-21	TOR	55	20	47	67	+21	20	0	0	5	156	12.8	22:26
2021-22	TOR	72	35	62	97	+23	16	6	3	5	224	15.6	20:53
2022-23	TOR	80	30	69	99	+18	28	9	4	4	196	15.3	21:17
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	507	168	386	554	+89	166	36	8	28	1333	12.6	19:40

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 goals and 69 assists in 80 games — 99 points — at 21:17 a night. Plus-18, 196 shots at 15.3 per cent, nine on the power play, four shorthanded, four game-winners, 28 penalty minutes.

99 points is a career high by two, and the four shorthanded goals are the most of any forward on this roster.

56.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 91st percentile, across 1,169 minutes, with his ice at 64-39 against an expectation of 57.06-43.54.

He started 59.2 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 88th percentile.

21:17 a night is the fifth-most of any forward in this book, behind Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Leon Draisaitl.

The Finesse Game

196 shots at a median of 32 feet.

Inside twenty feet: 55 shots on goal and 14 goals — 25.45 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 80 shots and 14 goals, 17.50 against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 61 shots and three goals, 4.92, above the league rate of 4.16.

Above the rate at all three distances, and half again the rate at two of them. He is one of the twenty-eight forwards in the league who managed that on twenty or more shots on goal in each band.

A 15.3 per cent shooting percentage against a career 12.6 across 507 games. On 196 shots that is about five goals of excess.

262 tracked attempts, 184 of them wrist shots — 70.2 per cent, the third-highest share of any forward in this book with a hundred attempts — and only 22 slap.

91.5 mph at the 55th percentile.

The 69 assists are the file, and the 386 career assists say so more loudly. He carries the puck into the zone, waits at the goal line, and the pass arrives at a stick rather than at a man.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 180 pounds, with 3.33 miles a game at the 94th percentile at a top speed of 22.1 mph, the 41st, and 1.4 bursts above twenty a game at the 70th.

A great deal of ground covered at ordinary speed, by a 180-pound winger playing more minutes than all but four forwards in this edition.

28 penalty minutes in 80 games and 166 in 507 career games. He is not a physical player and at 180 pounds does not try to be.

The defensive game is real and unusual for a scoring winger. Four shorthanded goals last season and eight for a career come from pressuring the puck at the blue line, and the 91st-percentile chance share is not borrowed from Auston Matthews — he spent most of last season centred by John Tavares on the second line.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2015, seven seasons, 507 games, 554 points, all of them here.

168 goals and 386 assists. Seven seasons, every one of them above 60 points, and three above 90.

He is twenty-six, and the standing criticism of the file is the playoff record rather than anything in the numbers above.

What this book can say is that a 91st-percentile chance share at twenty-one minutes a night, with four shorthanded goals and a shot chart above the positional rate from every distance, is one of the two or three most complete winger files in this edition.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
34.5% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 98th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
durable· was available
80 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“He carries the puck into the zone, waits at the goal line, and the pass arrives at a stick rather than at a man.”
penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short
“Four shorthanded goals last season and eight for a career come from pressuring the puck at the blue line, and the 91st-percentile chance share is not borrowed from Auston Matthews — he spent most of last season centred by John Tavares on the second line.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,169 minutes

Expected goals: 56.7%; 93rd pct
Shot attempts: 53.5%; 82nd pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 64 for, 39 against. Expected: 57.1 and 43.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

99th

Numbers

93rd

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 84 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed: 22.1 mph; 49th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 1.41 a game
Distance: 3.33 miles a game
Hardest shot: 91.5 mph; 76th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1169 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: TOR took 54.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.7% — 2.2 above the club he did it on.
The role: Second line, 1,169 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Auston Matthews	59.2%	54.1%	57.1%
John Tavares	56.3%	57.1%	54.5%
Michael Bunting	58.4%	55.8%	54.7%

59.2% together, 54.1% for him apart and 57.1% for Matthews apart. He was worse away from Matthews, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Matthews did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

261 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 31 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 34% from beyond forty.