Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

27

Ryan McDonagh

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense

A career plus-246, the second-largest figure in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11NYR40189+1614001273.718:44
2011-12NYR8272532+25440011235.724:44
2012-13NYR4741519+1322001834.824:21
2013-14NYR77142943+11362341777.924:49
2014-15NYR7182533+23263021485.423:08
2015-16NYR7392534+26222001138.022:21
2016-17NYR7763642+20371111533.924:21
2017-18NYR/TBL6342529+820100994.023:20
2018-19TBL8293746+38340011287.022:05
2019-20TBL5011112+719000502.020:42
2020-21TBL504812+1314000854.721:54
2021-22TBL7142226+1516000854.722:27
2022-23NSH7121820+1222001782.621:32
2023-24NSH7432932+1931001913.321:47
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—92876313389+246357941314405.322:46

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

74 games with Nashville, 3 goals and 29 assists for 32 points, 31 penalty minutes, 21:47 a night and plus-19, with 1 game-winner. He took 55.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,300 minutes, the 87th percentile, and his ice went 53-42 against an expectation of 60.93-49.22.

Eight goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and seven goals of goaltending above them. The 55.3 per cent is the best chance share of any defenceman on this roster and the plus-19 is the second-largest figure anybody here produced.

The Finesse Game

130 attempts at a median of 55 feet with 75 per cent of them from beyond forty and 9 per cent from inside twenty, 88 of those on goal, converted at 3.3 per cent against a career 5.28 across 1,440 shots.

313 career assists against 76 goals in 928 games. There has never been much shot here and there has never needed to be; the value is a first pass that beats the forecheck and fourteen seasons of never being caught on the wrong side of the puck.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 216 and took 31 penalty minutes.

357 career penalty minutes in 928 games. He is compact and heavy and defends by taking the ice away early rather than by hitting; he can move a forward out of the crease when he has to and does not go looking for the chance.

The Intangibles

Twelfth overall in 2007 by Montreal, fourteen seasons, three organisations, and 389 points in 928 games.

A career plus-246 — the second-largest figure in this edition, behind only Brad Marchand. He was drafted by a club he never played for and has spent fourteen seasons being the reason somebody else’s best line did not score.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    55.3% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 51.1% for his club in the minutes he sat: +4.2, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “A career plus-246 — the second-largest figure in this edition, behind only Brad Marchand.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “There has never been much shot here and there has never needed to be; the value is a first pass that beats the forecheck and fourteen seasons of never being caught on the wrong side of the puck.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is compact and heavy and defends by taking the ice away early rather than by hitting; he can move a forward out of the crease when he has to and does not go looking for the chance.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,300 minutes

Expected goals
55.3%
89th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.1%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 42 against. Expected: 60.9 and 49.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
89th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 74 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
85th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.66 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.94 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.7 mph
69th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with NSH · 1300 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NSH took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.3% — 2.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,300 minutes at five-on-five — 90th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Roman Josi56.9%54.4%53.3%
Filip Forsberg58.7%53.6%52.0%
Ryan O'Reilly56.7%54.6%51.0%

56.9% together, 54.4% for him apart and 53.3% for Josi apart. Josi was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Josi than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

130 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.