Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Brayden Point

Tampa Bay Lightning Center

Forty-six goals at 20.26 per cent, and 12 game-winners — the most in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17TBL68182240+41450212214.817:08
2017-18TBL82323466+1824531221714.819:37
2018-19TBL79415192+2728200719121.518:55
2019-20TBL66253964+281180414117.718:54
2020-21TBL56232548+21160613117.618:26
2021-22TBL66283058-533100417615.919:28
2022-23TBL82514495+27200923521.719:40
2023-24TBL81464490-16141501222720.320:02
2024-25 so far
Career580264289553+6014289356144018.319:05

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 46 goals and 44 assists for 90 points, 15 on the power play, 14 penalty minutes, 20:02 a night and minus-16, with 12 game-winners. He took 52.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,238 minutes, the 73rd percentile, and his ice went 69-75 against an expectation of 62.14-55.71.

Seven goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and nineteen more conceded than they called for — the worst goaltending figure on the club, which is most of how a 46-goal scorer finishes minus-16. Twelve game-winners is the most in this edition.

The Finesse Game

323 attempts at a median of 19 feet with 52 per cent of them from inside twenty and 6 per cent from beyond forty, 231 of those on goal, converted at 20.3 per cent against a career 18.33 across 1,440 shots.

264 career goals in 580 games and 89 of them on the power play. Only six per cent of his attempts come from beyond forty feet, which is the mark of a centre who does not shoot until he is inside the dots; a career 18.33 per cent across 1,440 shots is what that discipline produces.

The Physical Game

He is 5-11 and 177 and took 14 penalty minutes.

142 career penalty minutes in 580 games. He is small and light and gets to the middle of the ice anyway, arriving in the seam a half-second before the defenceman turns; there is no physical component to any of it.

The Intangibles

Seventy-ninth overall in 2014 by Tampa Bay, eight seasons, one organisation, and 553 points in 580 games.

Fifty-six career game-winners in 580 games and a career plus-60. He was a third-round pick who is 5-11, and he has scored 46 goals in a season.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,238 minutes

Expected goals
52.7%
73rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.3%
74th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 69 for, 75 against. Expected: 62.1 and 55.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
95th
Numbers
73rd

The report ranks him 22 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1238 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TBL took 50.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.7% — 2.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,238 minutes at five-on-five — 86th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nikita Kucherov54.1%41.0%56.4%
Victor Hedman54.6%50.2%49.8%
Darren Raddysh52.2%53.1%52.6%

54.1% together, 41.0% for him apart and 56.4% for Kucherov apart. He was worse away from Kucherov, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Kucherov did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

323 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 48 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 52% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.