This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Erik Cernak
Tampa Bay Lightning Defense
Three hundred and seventeen career penalty minutes in 365 games, and a career plus-64.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | TBL | 58 | 5 | 11 | 16 | +25 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 107 | 4.7 | 19:15 |
| 2019-20 | TBL | 67 | 5 | 7 | 12 | +11 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 4.0 | 18:57 |
| 2020-21 | TBL | 46 | 5 | 13 | 18 | +8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 5.9 | 19:47 |
| 2021-22 | TBL | 55 | 1 | 12 | 13 | +7 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 1.2 | 19:09 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 70 | 2 | 14 | 16 | +8 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 2.3 | 19:14 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 69 | 2 | 11 | 13 | +5 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 3.8 | 19:11 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 365 | 20 | 68 | 88 | +64 | 317 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 543 | 3.7 | 19:14 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
69 games, 2 goals and 11 assists for 13 points, 63 penalty minutes, 19:11 a night and plus-5. He took 47.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,097 minutes, the 39th percentile, and his ice went 44-48 against an expectation of 41.65-45.53.
Two goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and two more conceded than they called for. The plus-5 came on a club whose goaltending cost it thirty-one and a half goals.
The Finesse Game
75 attempts at a median of 58 feet with 80 per cent of them from beyond forty and 4 per cent from inside twenty, 52 of those on goal, converted at 3.8 per cent against a career 3.68 across 543 shots.
Twenty career goals in 365 games. A fifty-eight-foot median attempt is the most distant shot chart on this club; the puck goes to the net from the point to be tipped and 68 career assists in six seasons is everything else he offers with it.
The Physical Game
He is 6-4 and 230 and took 63 penalty minutes.
317 career penalty minutes in 365 games. He is one of the heaviest defencemen in this edition and plays entirely through contact — he clears the crease, finishes every check in the corner, and takes the penalty when the man gets past him.
The Intangibles
Forty-third overall in 2015 by Los Angeles, six seasons, one organisation, and 88 points in 365 games.
A career plus-64 across six seasons, all of them in Tampa Bay. He was drafted by a club he never played for and has taken the net front on this one since he was 21.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,097 minutes
- Expected goals
- 47.8%
- 37th pct
- Shot attempts
- 47.2%
- 30th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 48 against. Expected: 41.6 and 45.5.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 20 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 1097 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- TBL took 50.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.8% — 2.7 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third pair, 1,097 minutes at five-on-five — 71st percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 48.2% | 47.5% | 58.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 47.0% | 48.2% | 55.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 51.9% | 45.8% | 55.3% |
48.2% together, 47.5% for him apart and 58.7% for Hagel apart. Hagel was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
75 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 60 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 80% from beyond forty.