Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

13

Cam Atkinson

Tampa Bay Lightning Right Wing

Nineteen career shorthanded goals in 770 games, at 5-8 and 178 pounds.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12CBJ277714+1141006610.615:23
2012-13CBJ359918+94101919.915:35
2013-14CBJ79211940-4184152169.715:47
2014-15CBJ78221840-22271721210.416:59
2015-16CBJ81272653-82242322611.917:48
2016-17CBJ82352762+1322103924014.618:05
2017-18CBJ65242246+191431523110.418:54
2018-19CBJ80412869+32084829513.919:23
2019-20CBJ44121426+263021488.117:51
2020-21CBJ56151934-1641421589.518:56
2021-22PHI73232750-21023621510.718:15
2023-24PHI70131528-22272031757.415:57
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—770249231480-7183461951227310.917:34

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

70 games with Philadelphia, 13 goals and 15 assists for 28 points, 2 on the power play, 27 penalty minutes, 15:57 a night and minus-22, with 3 game-winners. He took 49.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 861 minutes, the 47th percentile, and his ice went 29-45 against an expectation of 35.24-35.72.

Six goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and nine more conceded than they called for. He shot 7.4 per cent against a career 10.95, and 28 points is the lowest total of any full season he has played.

The Finesse Game

213 attempts at a median of 26 feet with 41 per cent of them from inside twenty, 165 of those on goal, converted at 7.4 per cent against a career 10.95 across 2,273 shots.

249 career goals in 770 games and 51 game-winners. He is 5-8 and has scored thirty or more twice; the release is quick and flat and comes off the rush, and the whole game has always depended on getting to a shooting lane before somebody bigger closes it.

The Physical Game

He is 5-8 and 178 and took 27 penalty minutes.

183 career penalty minutes in 770 games. He is one of the smallest forwards in this edition and there is no physical element to his game at either end; twelve seasons of that have kept the penalty totals down and the plus-minus with them.

The Intangibles

One hundred and fifty-seventh overall in 2008 by Columbus, twelve seasons, and Tampa Bay will be his third organisation.

Nineteen career shorthanded goals in 770 games — the most on this roster — and 46 on the power play. He is 35 and the shorthanded goals are the part of his game that has lasted longest.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “Nineteen career shorthanded goals in 770 games — the most on this roster — and 46 on the power play.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is one of the smallest forwards in this edition and there is no physical element to his game at either end; twelve seasons of that have kept the penalty totals down and the plus-minus with them.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 861 minutes

Expected goals
49.7%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50%
55th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 45 against. Expected: 35.2 and 35.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
67th
Numbers
50th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 70 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
76th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.84 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.56 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.0 mph
76th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with PHI · 861 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
PHI took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.7% — 2.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 861 minutes at five-on-five — 44th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Owen Tippett49.3%49.9%53.4%
Sean Walker50.5%49.2%53.6%
Nick Seeler50.2%49.4%54.1%

49.3% together, 49.9% for him apart and 53.4% for Tippett apart. Tippett was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

213 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.