Montreal Canadiens

What the Quant Says

232 goals, 26th in the league.

Montreal created 2.313 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 28th, and took 45.5 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 28th, and 44.0 per cent of the expected goals, 30th.

At five-on-five it scored 162 goals against an expectation of 147.0 — a surplus of 15.0, 5th in the league. Thirtieth in the league at making chances and fifth at converting them. Carolina did the reverse and finished second overall; Montreal did this and finished twenty-eighth.

Nick Suzuki had 26 goals and 66 points in all 82 games at 21:06 a night, and his ice scored 18 goals more than the chances deserved. Cole Caufield scored 26 goals in 46 games on 2 penalty minutes, Kirby Dach 38 points in 58 at 22, Mike Matheson 34 points in 48 games at 24:27 and Josh Anderson 21 goals.

Rafael Harvey-Pinard took 75 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet — the most concentrated shot chart in this book — and scored 14 goals in 34 games. Alex Newhook arrives from Colorado with 30 points.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-six goals in forty-six games from a five-foot-eight winger, and a captain at twenty-three.

Nick Suzuki is 5-11 and 207 and played all 82 games at 21:06 with 66 points, covering 3.39 miles a game at the 95th percentile. He is the captain at 23 and the club's most-used forward at both ends.

Cole Caufield is 5-8 and 175 and scored 26 goals in 46 games on 2 penalty minutes, with 24 of them from inside 40 feet. He is the smallest forward in this chapter and the most dangerous.

Kirby Dach is 6-4 and 221, third overall in 2019, and takes 58 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet off the 7th-percentile shot velocity — a very large man who scores from the paint because he cannot score from anywhere else.

Josh Anderson is 6-3 and 226 with 3.9 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 98th percentile — the heaviest man in the league's top ten for bursts of speed.

Rafael Harvey-Pinard took 75 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, the most concentrated shot chart in this book, and scored 14 in 34 games. Juraj Slafkovský was first overall in 2022 and played 39 games at 18. Christian Dvorak has the third-softest registered shot in the league.

What the Quant Says

Montreal allowed 2.932 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 30th in the league, and conceded 307 goals, 29th.

At five-on-five it conceded 200 goals against an expectation of 186.8, and the club's goaltending came in 13.2 goals worse than the chances it faced, 24th in the league.

Mike Matheson played 48 games at 24:27 with 34 points, covering 3.61 miles a game — the seventh-most of any skater in the league. David Savard played 62 at 22:23 from the hardest deployment on the club, at a 21.0 mph top speed, the 3rd percentile.

Kaiden Guhle played 44 games at 20:31 at 21 with a 24.2 mph top speed, the 99th percentile — and a minus-19. Jordan Harris played 65 at 18:39 at 22 and Johnathan Kovacevic 77 at 17:25, a defenceman Winnipeg gave four games and put on waivers.

Arber Xhekaj is undrafted, 6-4 and 240 pounds, and took 101 penalty minutes in 51 games. Justin Barron is 21 with a 42.3 per cent chance share.

What the Scout Says

A twenty-one-year-old with a 24.2 mph top speed, and a thirty-two-year-old at the third percentile beside him.

Kaiden Guhle is 6-3 and 202 and registered 24.2 mph at 21 — the 99th percentile, and the second-fastest defenceman in the league. He played 20:31 a night in 44 games and finished minus-19, which is a description of the club rather than of him.

Mike Matheson is 6-2 and 196 and covers 3.61 miles a game, the seventh-most of any skater in the league, at 24:27 a night with 34 points in 48 games. The 99.6 mph shot is the 96th percentile. The availability is the file: 48 games.

David Savard is 6-1 and 235 with 407 career penalty minutes, plays 22 minutes a night from the hardest deployment on the club, and registers 21.0 mph, the 3rd percentile.

Arber Xhekaj is undrafted, 6-4 and 240 pounds, and took 101 penalty minutes in 51 games — four of his five goals came from beyond 40 feet. Johnathan Kovacevic is 6-5 and was given four games by Winnipeg and put on waivers, then 77 games and the best chance share on this blue line. Jordan Harris is 22 and played 18:39 a night.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 13.2 goals worse than the chances it faced, 24th in the league.

Jake Allen went 15-24-3 with an .8914 and a 3.55 in 42 games, facing 1,335 shots. That was his fourth straight season of decline, and his career line across 395 games is a .9087.

Samuel Montembeault went 16-19-3 with a .9011 and a 3.42 in 40 games at 27, facing 1,345. He had posted three straight seasons under .8940 before it, and his career line across 103 games is an .8957.

Cayden Primeau played 3 games.

Two goaltenders splitting 82 starts behind the club that conceded the third-most goals in the league, and the better of the two figures was a .9011. Montreal's crease is neither the problem nor a solution; the 30th-place chance share in front of it is.

What the Scout Says

Two goaltenders splitting eighty-two starts, and the better figure was a .9011.

Jake Allen is 6-2 and 197 and went 15-24-3 with an .8914 in 42 games — his fourth straight season of decline, on a career .9087 across 395 games. He handles the puck well and reads the play as well as he ever did; the numbers have gone the other way for four years in a row and this book records the trend rather than explaining it away.

Samuel Montembeault is 6-3 and 218 and posted a .9011 at 27 after three straight seasons under .8940. That is the most encouraging goaltending number Montreal has, and it is a .901.

Cayden Primeau played three games. The crease is not what is wrong with this club — the 30th-place chance share in front of it is — but nothing here is going to disguise that either.

What the Quant Says

30th in the league at 5.273 expected goals per 60, over 4:50 a night, 24th in power-play time. The third-worst power play in hockey.

Nick Suzuki scored 7 power-play goals, Cole Caufield 7, Kirby Dach 6, Rafael Harvey-Pinard 4, Arber Xhekaj 2, Jake Evans 1, Justin Barron 1, Juraj Slafkovský 1 and Jesse Ylonen 1. Alex Newhook scored 1 elsewhere.

Sean Monahan has 67 career power-play goals in 681 games, the most on the roster, and Brendan Gallagher 43 in 675. Nick Suzuki has 26 in 291, Christian Dvorak 20 in 422, Cole Caufield 12 in 123 — by rate the largest figure here — and Josh Anderson 11 in 457.

Thirtieth in the league from a unit whose two best shooters missed half the season between them. That is most of the explanation and it is not all of it.

What the Scout Says

Thirtieth in the league, from a unit that lost both of its shooters for half the season.

Cole Caufield has 12 career power-play goals in 123 games — by rate the largest figure on the roster — and scored 7 in 46 games at 5-8. Nick Suzuki has 26 in 291 and scored 7 running the unit from the half-wall.

Kirby Dach scored 6 at 6-4 from in front, and Rafael Harvey-Pinard 4 in 34 games standing in exactly the same place.

Sean Monahan has 67 career power-play goals in 681 games, the most on the roster, and played 25 games. Brendan Gallagher has 43 in 675 and played 37.

Arber Xhekaj scored 2 with a 96.9 mph shot from the point at 240 pounds. There is a unit here when everybody is available, and last season everybody was not.

What the Quant Says

29th in the league at 8.161 expected goals against per 60, over 5:17 a night, 9th in shorthanded time. A great deal of ice at the fourth-worst rate in hockey.

Nick Suzuki scored 3 shorthanded goals, Rafael Harvey-Pinard 1, Josh Anderson 1, Christian Dvorak 1, Justin Barron 1 and Joel Armia 1.

Joel Armia has 12 career shorthanded goals in 439 games, the most on the roster and by rate one of the larger figures in this book. Nick Suzuki has 5 in 291, Josh Anderson 4 in 457, Christian Dvorak 2 in 422 and Sean Monahan 2 in 681.

Christian Dvorak took the second-hardest deployment in the league and came out with a 42.4 per cent chance share, which is what that job costs on a club with this blue line. Arber Xhekaj took 101 penalty minutes in 51 games and Michael Pezzetta 77 in 63 at nine minutes a night.

Twenty-ninth by rate over the ninth-most shorthanded time in the league. This is the single worst combination on the page.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-ninth in the league over the ninth-most shorthanded time, which is the worst combination on the page.

Joel Armia is 6-3 and 215 and has 12 career shorthanded goals in 439 games — by rate one of the larger figures in this book — and his ice scored 12 goals in 43 games. He is the specialist and he is the only one.

Nick Suzuki has 5 career shorthanded goals in 291 games and scored 3 last season, which for a first-line centre at 23 is a lot of shorthanded work.

Christian Dvorak took the second-hardest deployment in the league and has 2 shorthanded goals in 422 games; David Savard took the hardest on the club with 407 career penalty minutes.

Arber Xhekaj took 101 penalty minutes in 51 games and Michael Pezzetta 77 in 63 at nine minutes a night. A club that is shorthanded this often needs the kill to be better than twenty-ninth, and the personnel to make it so is not on the page.