Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

92

Jonathan Drouin

Colorado Avalanche Left Wing

Two goals on 69 shots, and 27 assists — the widest split between passing and finishing in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15TBL7042832+334300765.313:14
2015-16TBL214610+140012516.014:27
2016-17TBL73213253-131690618311.517:42
2017-18MTL77133346-28304041647.917:36
2018-19MTL81183553-8263031909.516:56
2019-20MTL277815-6141015113.715:42
2020-21MTL4422123-820000762.616:05
2021-22MTL3461420-923000629.717:06
2022-23MTL5822729-1818000692.914:54
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—48577204281-86185200158968.616:08

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 27 assists in 58 games for Montreal, minus-18, 14:54 a night, 69 shots at 2.9 per cent.

Two goals on 69 shots is the sort of number that usually corrects. The rest is less encouraging: 43.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 13th percentile, with his ice at 23-34 against an expectation of 27.23-35.10.

Nine seasons, 485 games, 77 goals and 204 assists. The passing has always been the game and the finishing has never arrived.

The Finesse Game

69 shots at a median of 26 feet, 42 per cent from inside twenty and 26 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 48 shots, two goals, 4.17 per cent. Beyond forty: 19 shots, none. He did not score from anywhere.

The 27 assists in 58 games is a 0.47-a-game rate that would look good on a second line, and the shot at 87.8 mph and the 28th percentile is a genuine weakness rather than bad luck. He is a passer who cannot threaten, and defencemen have learned to play him accordingly.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 189. 22.9 mph at the 81st percentile and 2.34 miles a game at the 34th — quick in a burst, light on volume.

18 penalty minutes in 58 games. He does not defend hard and the 13th-percentile expected-goal share is the consequence: the puck spends its time in the wrong end when he is out.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2013 — two picks after Nathan MacKinnon, and ten years later they are teammates, which is the kind of symmetry a scouting annual notices and cannot use.

He has never played 82 games. He has never scored 22. Colorado signed him for one year at 28, and the entire case is that the passing is a first-line skill sitting in a body nobody has yet found a role for.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The 27 assists in 58 games is a 0.47-a-game rate that would look good on a second line”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “the puck spends its time in the wrong end when he is out”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 719 minutes

Expected goals
43.7%
14th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.7%
27th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 34 against. Expected: 27.2 and 35.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
3rd
Numbers
14th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 50 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 58 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.09 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.34 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.8 mph
53rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with MTL · 719 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MTL took 44.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.7% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 719 minutes at five-on-five — 32nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Johnathan Kovacevic42.4%44.2%48.5%
Josh Anderson45.3%43.0%43.7%
David Savard49.2%41.7%42.2%

42.4% together, 44.2% for him apart and 48.5% for Kovacevic apart. Kovacevic was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

91 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.