Montréal Canadiens

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 23 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 244 for, 214 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 48.6% 23rd of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 49.8% 19th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.10 15th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 8.28 31st of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +13.4 6th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +12.0 8th of 32

Montréal Canadiens scored 13.4 more goals than their chances were worth and got 12.0 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 25 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 25.2; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 1.9%; of skater points
From under 26: 58.7%; of skater points
Homegrown: 52.0%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 91.6%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

100-point captain, a 50-goal winger, a 78-point defenceman at 22 — and the 31st-ranked penalty kill taking the third-heaviest workload in the league.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

4th of 32

The numbers

19th of 32

The book places it 15 spots higher than the numbers do. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen and the book departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 19 of the 23 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 21 of 23 · 97% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (2)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 19 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Alex Belzile, Alexandre Texier.

Who this names 7 of 23 on the roster · 40% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Josh Anderson, Alex Belzile, Zachary Bolduc, Alexandre Carrier, Kirby Dach, Phillip Danault, Jakub Dobes, Noah Dobson, Jake Evans, Jacob Fowler, Oliver Kapanen, Mike Matheson, Samuel Montembeault, Alex Newhook, Jayden Struble, Alexandre Texier.

What the Quant Says

Young, fast, and scoring above itself. Montréal was 23rd in shot-attempt share and 13th in creating chances — and finished 13.4 goals above expectation, seventh — on the way to 283 goals.

The goaltending added another 12.0, 9th. What holds the club back is one unit: 29th on the penalty kill while taking the ninth-heaviest shorthanded workload in the league. With 91.6 per cent continuity, second, almost everything returns — including a 50-goal winger, 100-point captain and a 22-year-old defenceman with 78 points.

What the Scout Says

The most skilled young club in the league and the lightest. Lane Hutson has the best edges of any defenceman in hockey and escapes forecheckers by turning inside them in a space that does not look big enough. Cole Caufield releases the puck before a goaltender has finished setting, from spots nobody is expecting a shot to come from. Ivan Demidov beats defencemen one-on-one in tight and sees passes his linemates have not thought of yet. Nick Suzuki is never in a race because he reads the play early enough not to have to be.

What holds it together is a small number of men who will do the unpleasant work. Juraj Slafkovský protects the puck below the goal line with his back to pressure and wins the wall; Kaiden Guhle clears his crease and is genuinely hard to play against; Arber Xhekaj fights, cross-checks the front of his net clear, and is the reason the small skilled players get left alone. That is a thin margin of weight for a roster this light. The question the season asks is what happens in a series against a heavy team that decides to hunt the best player on the ice.

Who this names 9 of 13 forwards · 77% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Alex Belzile, Phillip Danault, Jake Evans, Alexandre Texier.

What the Quant Says

283 goals from a young team that does not have the puck much: 23rd in shot-attempt share, 13th in creating chances, and 13.4 goals above expectation in finishing, 7th in the league.

Cole Caufield scored 51 goals at 5-8, on a 19.8 shooting percentage from a median of 22 feet. Nick Suzuki put up 101 points and is the best player here without owning a single spectacular tool. Juraj Slafkovský scored 30 at 22, 15 of them on the power play, 3 years after going 1st overall. And Ivan Demidov put up 62 points as a 20-year-old rookie while already being the most creative player on the ice most nights. Oliver Kapanen added 22 goals as a rookie. The finishing surplus is the caution — a young club scoring above its chances is a young club whose next season looks flatter unless the chances come up to meet it.

What the Scout Says

4 genuine creators and a shape that suits all of them. Nick Suzuki arrives at the top of the circles half a second before the puck, holds it until a defender commits, and puts the pass where his winger will be rather than where he is; he has become dangerous in tight after years of being purely a distributor. Cole Caufield's shot is one of the two or three quickest in the league and the other half of him is where he goes — the soft ice between a defenceman and a winger, held still until the seam opens. Ivan Demidov delays, drags pucks through sticks, and occasionally passes to somewhere his linemates have not arrived at yet, which will stop happening as they learn him.

Juraj Slafkovský is the one who makes the rest possible: a good deal of this offence is created by his simply refusing to be taken off the puck long enough for somebody to get open, and the shot has become a real weapon on top of it. Behind those 4, Zachary Bolduc finishes what a creator draws attention away from and produces very little when there is no creator to play beside; Oliver Kapanen moves to open ice and finishes more reliably than most rookies; Alex Newhook is quick through the neutral zone and disappears when the play slows down. Josh Anderson is the one true power forward and the hands go missing at the moment they are needed. Kirby Dach can dominate below the goal line when he decides to, and the flashes are all there has been.

Who this names 6 of 7 defencemen · 90% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Jayden Struble.

What the Quant Says

Lane Hutson is 5-9, 162 pounds, 22 years old, and put up 78 points in 23:46 a night at the 84th percentile in chance share — plus-36. There is nothing else like it in this edition, and the numbers underneath agree with the point total rather than undercutting it: the expected goals ran 73.0 to 61.3 in his favour across 1,528 minutes.

Around him it is more ordinary. Mike Matheson plays the hardest 24:10 on the team at the 22nd percentile; Noah Dobson takes 22:29 at the 36th and has never quite been the player his best season promised. Alexandre Carrier is 5-11 and asks for nothing. Kaiden Guhle has everything required except the ability to stay in the lineup — 39 games. Arber Xhekaj took 116 penalty minutes and did not take a single shot from inside 20 feet all season.

What the Scout Says

Skill first, weight second, and the balance is unusual. Lane Hutson does not make the safe first pass; he makes the one that skips a layer of coverage, and completes it at a rate suggesting it is not a gamble. He manipulates penalty killers from the line the way a forward would. He also cannot clear a crease, cannot win a wall battle against a grown winger, and gets moved out of the front of his own net by anybody who wants the space — so he avoids the situations where that matters, ending plays with feet and stick before contact is available. There is no argument to make about the cost; it is simply the cost, and it is one worth paying.

Mike Matheson escapes forechecks by carrying the puck out himself and recovers when the play turns because he is faster than the forwards chasing him — the turnovers are the price of a defenceman who refuses to rim it. Noah Dobson makes long accurate outlets that start a rush before the other side has changed and has stretches where the puck decisions get loose. Kaiden Guhle is the one who finishes checks, clears the crease and is hard along the wall, and his availability rather than his talent is now the question. Alexandre Carrier is tidy and quick and gets gone through at the net front. Arber Xhekaj is the deterrent: he fights willingly, clears the front with cross-checks, and opposing forwards behave differently when he is out there. On a defence this light that is not a novelty item.

Who this names 3 of 3 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

3 goaltenders, and the youngest was the best. Jacob Fowler, 21, stopped .9085 across 17 games with a 2.43 average; Jakub Dobes took 43 and Samuel Montembeault 25.

Collectively Montréal came in 12.0 goals better than the chances faced, 9th in the league — a real positive on a club that concedes the 21st-most of them. Fowler's 17 games are either a small sample or the succession, and on a roster this young the club can afford to find out. Continuity is 91.6 per cent, 2nd in the league: almost everything that produced last season is back.

What the Scout Says

3 goaltenders, 2 of them young, and a decision the club did not have 2 years ago. Jakub Dobes is 6-4 and uses it the way big goaltenders should — square, patient, content to let shots hit him, and unusually disciplined about not chasing pucks with his hands. The rebound control is inconsistent and pucks that should die in his chest come back to the slot. What is most encouraging is the temperament: he was thrown into a starting job in the market that scrutinises the position hardest, and bad goals do not compound on him.

Jacob Fowler is the opposite build and the opposite method — smaller, thickly made, aggressive about cutting angles, relying on quickness rather than size, with a glove good enough that shooters stopped trying that corner. He looked composed at 21, which is not a small thing. Samuel Montembeault makes difficult saves look difficult: he drifts and reaches rather than moving his feet, which turns clean shots into scrambles, and he handles the puck genuinely well behind a young defence that gets forechecked. He gave this club competent goaltending through a rebuild when there was no alternative, and there is now an alternative.

Who this names 11 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

The problem, and it is a big one. 29th in the league at 8.28 expected goals against per 60, while being shorthanded 5:18 a game — the third-heaviest workload in hockey. Worst-5 rate on third-heaviest volume is the most expensive combination on this page.

The penalty minutes are structural: Xhekaj 116, Josh Anderson 90, Struble 58, Slafkovský 52. A young, physical team takes penalties, and this one has not yet built the kill to survive them. Jake Evans, a seventh-round pick who made himself into a penalty-killing centre, is the one part of it that works.

What the Scout Says

The forwards are better at it than the roster's reputation suggests. Jake Evans reads passing lanes as well as anyone here, which is why he kills every night and why he has scored an unusual number of shorthanded goals for a player of his profile. Phillip Danault wins faceoffs and takes defensive-zone draws against the other team's best, and the value now is defensive entirely. Josh Anderson's speed and Alex Newhook's are both genuine threats when a puck comes loose.

On the blue line it is a mix of the honest and the exposed. Kaiden Guhle closes gaps quickly, clears the crease, and is the 1 defenceman here who makes the front of the net unpleasant; Alexandre Carrier blocks a great deal and is in the right lane; Arber Xhekaj takes the space in front outright when he is dressed. But Lane Hutson cannot be asked for that work, Mike Matheson will not initiate contact when a stick will do, and Noah Dobson can be established on. The other half of the problem is how often the kill is needed: Anderson's 90 penalty minutes contain a share of the frustration kind, and Xhekaj's game puts his team down a man by design. A club this light cannot afford to spend much time defending 4 against 5.

The roster

Evidence 19 Full 3 Light 1 No record

No measured season behind one man: Alex Belzile. His page carries an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2025-26.

Josh Anderson

#17

RW · Montréal Canadiens

6-3, 226 pounds, and one of the fastest players on the team, which somehow keeps adding up to 14 goals.

Alex Belzile

#60

RW · Montréal Canadiens

35 years old, undrafted, and finally getting a real run of NHL games.

Zachary Bolduc

#76

RW · Montréal Canadiens

A first-round pick on his second organisation, still looking for the role that fits him.

Alexandre Carrier

#45

D · Montréal Canadiens

An undersized right-shot defenceman who plays 19 honest minutes and asks for nothing.

Cole Caufield

#13

RW · Montréal Canadiens

5-8, and he just scored 51 goals.

Kirby Dach

#77

C · Montréal Canadiens

The third pick in his draft, 7 years on, with 136 career points and a knee that keeps ending his seasons.

Phillip Danault

#24

C · Montréal Canadiens

A defensive centre back where his career started, with the offence now almost entirely gone.

Ivan Demidov

RW · Montréal Canadiens

A rookie with 62 points who was already the most creative player on the ice most nights.

Jakub Dobes

#75

G · Montréal Canadiens

A fifth-round goaltender who took the crease and did not give it back.

Noah Dobson

#53

D · Montréal Canadiens

A big right-shot defenceman who plays 22 minutes and has never quite been the player his best season promised.

Jake Evans

#71

C · Montréal Canadiens

A seventh-round pick who made himself into a penalty-killing centre and has outlasted almost everyone drafted above him.

Jacob Fowler

G · Montréal Canadiens

A rookie goaltender with 17 games and the best numbers of the 3, which is either a small sample or the future.

Kaiden Guhle

#21

D · Montréal Canadiens

A physical, mobile defenceman with everything required except the ability to stay in the lineup.

Lane Hutson

#48

D · Montréal Canadiens

5-9, 162 pounds, 24 minutes a night, and 78 points.

Oliver Kapanen

#91

C · Montréal Canadiens

A second-round Finn who scored 22 goals as a rookie and did most of it beside the best young playmaker on the team.

Mike Matheson

D · Montréal Canadiens

A late-blooming defenceman playing the most difficult 24 minutes on a young team.

Samuel Montembeault

#35

G · Montréal Canadiens

The incumbent starter who lost the job, in the worst season of his career.

Alex Newhook

#15

C · Montréal Canadiens

A fast, skilled forward who has never been able to hold a top-6 job or stay healthy long enough to try.

Juraj Slafkovský

#20

LW · Montréal Canadiens

The 1st overall pick who took 3 years to look like one, and then scored 30 goals.

Jayden Struble

D · Montréal Canadiens

A physical third-pairing defenceman who spent last season partnered with the most creative player on the team.

Nick Suzuki

#14

C · Montréal Canadiens

100-point captain who does not have a single spectacular tool, and is the best player on his team by a distance.

Alexandre Texier

#85

LW · Montréal Canadiens

A French winger with real skill who has never turned it into consistent production in 7 seasons.

Arber Xhekaj

#72

D · Montréal Canadiens

An undrafted, 6-4 enforcer in an era that supposedly does not have them.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.