Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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15

Alex Newhook

Montreal Canadiens Center

The 96th percentile in bursts of speed, and thirty points from thirteen minutes a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21COL6033+5200080.013:41
2021-22COL71132033+111230511311.513:34
2022-23COL8214163002210311612.113:57
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—159273966+163640823711.413:46

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 16 assists in all 82 games — 30 points — at 13:57 a night, with three game-winners. Even, 116 shots at 12.1 per cent, 22 penalty minutes, with Colorado.

51.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 62nd percentile, with his ice at 43-38 against an expectation of 41.03-38.84 — process and result agreed at both ends.

Thirty points from fourteen minutes on the third line of the defending Stanley Cup champions is a useful season. It is also his third, and the totals read 33 and 30 across the two fuller ones.

Three seasons, 159 games, 66 points.

The Finesse Game

116 shots at a median of 23 feet, 45 per cent from inside twenty and 14 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 18 shots on goal, 1 goal. Inside forty: 96 shots, 13 goals, 13.54 per cent.

Eighteen long shots in eighty-two games is a disciplined chart, and 13.54 per cent from inside forty is respectable rather than remarkable.

21 tip-ins out of 141 tracked attempts.

85.6 mph at the 14th percentile, on twelve slap shots. Soft, and it matters more here than usual because there is not much else driving the goals.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 200, and 22 penalty minutes.

Bursts 2.8 a game, the 96th percentile; top speed 23.1 mph, the 89th. Those are the two best numbers in his file and they are very good ones.

2.22 miles a game, the 25th — a fourteen-minute role, and the distance is the ice time rather than the effort.

He is not a physical forward and does not win pucks by force. The speed is the asset and everything else is ordinary.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2019 out of Boston College, three Colorado seasons, and traded to Montreal for two picks inside the first forty of the 2023 draft and a prospect.

49.8 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 45th percentile.

Montreal paid a real price for a twenty-two-year-old who has scored thirty points twice. The bet is the 96th-percentile bursts and the fact that Colorado never gave him more than fourteen minutes. He is about to get more than that, and the season after this one will say whether the bet was right.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “**Bursts 2.8 a game, the 96th percentile; top speed 23.1 mph, the 89th.** Those are the two best numbers in his file and they are very good ones.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He is not a physical forward and does not win pucks by force.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,030 minutes

Expected goals
51.4%
62nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.3%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 43 for, 38 against. Expected: 41.0 and 38.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
62nd

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
91st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.84 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.6 mph
39th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with COL · 1030 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
COL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.4% — 1.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,030 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Samuel Girard50.0%52.3%53.1%
Evan Rodrigues55.4%49.2%57.9%
Erik Johnson47.3%52.8%48.5%

50.0% together, 52.3% for him apart and 53.1% for Girard apart. Girard was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

139 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.