Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

56

Jesse Ylonen

Montreal Canadiens Right Wing

Zero penalty minutes in thirty-seven games, and six goals on twenty-nine close-range shots.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21MTL10000000010.011:23
2021-22MTL14235+220001612.511:34
2022-23MTL3761016-1101014314.013:27
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—5281321-921016013.312:54

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 10 assists in 37 games — 16 points — at 13:27 a night, and no penalty minutes at all. Minus-11, 43 shots at 14.0 per cent.

Zero penalty minutes across thirty-seven games. Very few players in this book manage that at any workload.

42.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 8th percentile — the second-lowest on the club — with his ice at 15-25 against an expectation of 13.87-19.10 across 457 minutes.

Three seasons, 52 games, 21 points.

The Finesse Game

43 shots at a median of 31 feet, 33 per cent from inside twenty and 25 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 11 shots on goal and no goals. Inside forty: 29 shots and 6 goals — 20.69 per cent.

Twenty-nine shots is nothing like enough to call that finishing, and the honest reading of six goals in thirty-seven games is that it was a good month rather than a rate.

90.2 mph at the 44th percentile, on four slap shots.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 193, and no penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.0 mph, the 37th percentile; bursts 1.6 a game, the 76th; 2.26 miles a game, the 29th.

He does not hit, does not go to the net front and does not win a puck along the wall, and the zero in the penalty column is a description of that rather than of his discipline.

48.7 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 40th percentile — close to even, which means the 8th-percentile chance share is not explained away by the assignment.

The Intangibles

Thirty-fifth overall in 2018 to Montreal, four seasons in Finland and the American league, and 52 NHL games at twenty-three.

The skill is real and the rest of the game is not there. On a rebuilding club with nothing at stake he will get another season to add it, which is more runway than most second-round picks are given.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not hit, does not go to the net front and does not win a puck along the wall, and the zero in the penalty column is a description of that rather than of his discipline.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 457 minutes

Expected goals
42.1%
9th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
42.9%
8th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 15 for, 25 against. Expected: 13.9 and 19.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
12th
Numbers
9th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 37 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
45th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.57 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.26 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.2 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 457 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MTL took 44.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.1% — 1.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
457 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mike Matheson40.3%43.0%45.9%
Johnathan Kovacevic46.6%39.6%47.5%
David Savard37.7%44.3%44.1%

40.3% together, 43.0% for him apart and 45.9% for Matheson apart. Matheson was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

51 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.