Montreal Canadiens

What the Quant Says

245 goals and 9th in the league in creating chances at even strength at 2.60 expected goals per 60, which is a long way ahead of where this club was expected to be.

Nick Suzuki had 89 points and 8 penalty minutes across 82 games. Cole Caufield scored 37 on 240 shots. Lane Hutson had 60 assists as a rookie defenceman. Juraj Slafkovský produced 51 points at 21 with 56 per cent of his shots taken from inside 20 feet, and Brendan Gallagher 21 goals at 33.

Finishing was 24th, 9.1 goals below expectation, and it fell on the top line: Suzuki's on-ice goals were 70-46 against an expected 54-51, and Caufield's 63-44 against an expected 50-53. Patrik Laine scored 20 goals and 15 of them came on the power play — 5 at five-on-five in 52 games.

What the Scout Says

Three genuine skill players and a great deal of forechecking around them.

Suzuki's passing is the best on the club and among the most underrated in the league — he holds pucks below the goal line and delivers into space rather than onto a stick. Caufield is one of the purest shooters alive and does nothing away from the puck; at 5-8 and 175 he is removed from possession by any defenceman who gets a body on him. Slafkovský has a power forward's frame and a playmaker's instincts, and has learned to protect the puck below the goal line and go to the net front, neither of which he did reliably two seasons ago.

Patrik Laine's shot is one of the two or three best in the league and everything else has thinned — 11 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet is a man who never goes to the net, and at five-on-five he is a passenger. Brendan Gallagher at 33 takes cross-checks in the crease and stays, and 43 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet.

Underneath: Jake Evans reads a breakout as well as any forward here and took 10 penalty minutes all year. Alex Newhook has genuinely good speed and 11 assists in 82 games. Kirby Dach has a 6-4 frame, hands that work in traffic, and six years of not controlling a shift. Zachary Bolduc arrives at 22 with 19 goals in thirteen minutes a night.

What the Quant Says

265 goals conceded and 31st in even-strength expected goals against at 2.85 per 60. This is the half of the club that a playoff appearance disguised.

Lane Hutson posted the best chance share on the blue line at 52.1 per cent while playing more five-on-five minutes than anybody on the roster, at 5-9 and 162 pounds. Below him it is bleak: Mike Matheson played 25:05 a night at the 25th percentile, Alexandre Carrier 20:35 at the 17th, and Arber Xhekaj was on for 30 goals against 56 with 118 penalty minutes.

Jayden Struble had a 56.3 per cent share — the 94th percentile, by far the best on the club — in fifteen minutes a night. That is a coaching question rather than a player one.

Noah Dobson arrives from the Islanders at 25, a right shot with a 70-point season on his record, to play beside Hutson and to take twenty minutes off Matheson. It is the most consequential thing this club has done in a decade.

What the Scout Says

One extraordinary young defenceman, one just acquired, and a great deal that has to change.

Lane Hutson is the smallest defenceman in the league by weight and the most complete offensive one under 25. He gets to loose pucks first because he reads where they will be and removes himself from trouble by skating rather than absorbing it — and when that fails, and against a determined forecheck it fails, the puck ends up behind him and there is no second plan. The shot is the one correctable gap: 58 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet and a release killers do not respect.

Noah Dobson takes 196 shots from the point with a heavy release and runs a breakout by himself, and defends with reach and position rather than force. Kaiden Guhle closes a rush at the blue line, clears his crease, and has not cleared 65 games in three seasons.

Mike Matheson covers ground that most defencemen cannot and attempts the difficult play at the wrong moment, and 51 penalty minutes is a man beaten and reaching. Alexandre Carrier is 174 pounds and loses board battles to bigger forwards. Arber Xhekaj fights anybody and clears his crease by force and put up 5 assists in 70 games. Jayden Struble had the best chance share on the roster and played fifteen minutes.

What the Quant Says

Samuel Montembeault went 31-24-7 with a .9011 across 62 games, facing 1,678 shots — the fourth-most in the league. The club's goaltending came in 4.8 goals worse than the chances faced, 19th.

A .9011 behind the 31st-best chance suppression in hockey is a fair season rather than a bad one, and the volume is the point: this defence hands its goaltender more work than almost anybody's.

Jakub Dobeš, 24, stopped .9091 in 16 games in his first NHL action — a better number than the starter, on the same club, in the same season. He is 6-4 and calm and plays the opposite style, and on a club conceding this many interior chances the size is the more useful attribute.

What the Scout Says

A starter facing the fourth-most shots in the league and a backup who was better than him.

Samuel Montembeault is 6-3 and athletic rather than structural — quick for the size, moving a great deal, and square less consistently than he should be. The rebound control is the weakness and it compounds behind a defence conceding this many interior chances. The puck-handling is genuinely good and it is used to relieve a forecheck this blue line cannot handle alone. Undrafted out of the first round, waived twice, and unaffected by volume, which is the specific quality the job requires here.

Jakub Dobeš is 6-4 and plays a deep, calm, positional game — the opposite of his partner in almost every respect — taking away the top of the net and not travelling further than the puck requires. The lateral movement is adequate rather than quick. 16 games is not a sample and the size is the more useful attribute on this club, and he stopped 8 more pucks per thousand than the man who played 62.

What the Quant Says

25th at 6.28 expected goals per 60, over 4:46 a night. A bad unit with a genuine weapon on it.

Laine scored 15 power-play goals in 52 games — the highest rate in this edition — with Caufield 10, Slafkovský 5, Gallagher 5, Suzuki 4. Hutson ran it and had 60 assists across all situations without a shot that a killer has to respect, which is the structural problem: 58 per cent of his attempts came from beyond 40 feet and the release does not threaten.

A unit with Laine's shot, Caufield's release and Hutson's distribution finishing 25th is the clearest fixable thing on this roster.

What the Scout Says

The most dangerous shot in this edition and a unit that finished 25th.

Patrik Laine from the left circle is close to unstoppable — heavy, released without a windup, and 15 goals in 52 games is the highest power-play rate in the archive. Cole Caufield gives the box a second release it cannot ignore. Nick Suzuki runs it from below the goal line with the patience the arrangement needs.

What breaks it is the point. Lane Hutson's distribution is exceptional and his shot is not — 58 per cent of his attempts come from beyond 40 feet with a release that killers do not respect — so a box can collapse toward Laine and pay nothing for it. Noah Dobson's 196 shots and heavy point release are the direct answer, and it is the single most obvious improvement available to this club.

What the Quant Says

29th at 7.68 expected goals against per 60, over 5:21 a game — the most shorthanded time of any club in the league. Bad at it, and doing more of it than anybody.

The volume is self-inflicted and it is not subtle. Arber Xhekaj took 118 penalty minutes, Josh Anderson 90, Jayden Struble 52 in 56 games, Mike Matheson 51, and Kaiden Guhle 47 in 55. That is five men, on a club that already concedes chances at the 31st-best rate in hockey.

Jake Evans is the exception and the model: 10 penalty minutes across 82 games, 3 shorthanded goals, and the hardest defensive assignment on the roster. Suzuki took 8.

What the Scout Says

Two men doing it properly and five men making it necessary.

Jake Evans is the model: he reads a breakout as well as any forward on the roster, scored 3 shorthanded goals, and took 10 penalty minutes across 82 games on a club that led the league in shorthanded time. Nick Suzuki took 8. Kaiden Guhle clears his crease and closes the blue line when available.

And then the cost. Arber Xhekaj 118 penalty minutes, Josh Anderson 90, Jayden Struble 52 in 56 games, Mike Matheson 51, Kaiden Guhle 47 in 55. A unit that is 29th in rate and 1st in workload is not short of willing men; it is being asked to save a club from decisions made at even strength, and it cannot.