Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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43

Jordan Harris

Montreal Canadiens Defense

Eighteen and a half minutes a night at twenty-two, and thirty-seven shots from beyond forty feet for nothing.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22MTL10101+38000911.116:17
2022-23MTL6541317-326000705.718:39
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—7551318034000796.318:20

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 13 assists in 65 games — 17 points — at 18:39 a night. Minus-3, 70 shots, 26 penalty minutes.

47.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 32nd percentile — second on the Montreal blue line — with his ice at 47-48 against an expectation of 42.00-47.40. Five goals better at the offensive end than the chances and exactly the chances at the defensive.

Two seasons, 75 games, 18 points.

The Finesse Game

70 shots at a median of 45 feet, 13 per cent from inside twenty and 59 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 37 shots on goal and no goals. Inside forty: 32 shots, 4 goals, 12.50 per cent.

All four of his goals came from inside forty feet and thirty-seven long shots produced none. This book has now run that test on every blue line in this edition and it has come back the same way each time.

87.4 mph at the 25th percentile, on nine slap shots. Soft.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 189, and 26 penalty minutes.

Top speed 21.8 mph, the 25th percentile; bursts 0.8 a game, the 43rd; 2.67 miles a game, the 59th.

He is a positional defenceman at 189 pounds who does not take the body and cannot clear a crease. On a pairing he is the one who retrieves the puck and makes the first pass, and the partner is expected to do the rest.

44.5 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 26th percentile.

The Intangibles

Seventy-first overall in 2018 out of Northeastern, four college seasons, and a first full year at twenty-two.

The chance share is second on the blue line and the blue line finished thirtieth in the league, which is the honest frame for all of it.

What is encouraging is the eighteen and a half minutes. Montreal gave a twenty-two-year-old a real assignment on a club with nothing to lose, and he did not drown in it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    20.2% of his attempts in the slot, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “On a pairing he is the one who retrieves the puck and makes the first pass, and the partner is expected to do the rest.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He is a positional defenceman at 189 pounds who does not take the body and cannot clear a crease.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,109 minutes

Expected goals
47%
33rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47%
30th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 47 for, 48 against. Expected: 42.0 and 47.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
33rd

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 65 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
58th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.80 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.67 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.4 mph
27th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1109 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MTL took 44.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.0% — 3.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,109 minutes at five-on-five — 72nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Johnathan Kovacevic49.3%43.9%45.3%
Nick Suzuki46.0%47.4%42.6%
Josh Anderson49.2%46.1%41.9%

49.3% together, 43.9% for him apart and 45.3% for Kovacevic apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

94 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 59% from beyond forty.