Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Jake Evans

Montreal Canadiens Center

Two goals on fifty-five shots, and seventeen assists.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20MTL13213+100001414.310:21
2020-21MTL4731013+229010555.511:50
2021-22MTL72131629-52200012410.515:36
2022-23MTL5421719-528100553.614:29
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—186204464-7791102488.113:57

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 17 assists in 54 games — 19 points — at 14:29 a night. Minus-5, 55 shots at 3.6 per cent, 28 penalty minutes.

Two goals on fifty-five shots is the lowest conversion rate of any regular forward in these five chapters. He had scored thirteen the season before on 124 shots.

46.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 27th percentile, with his ice at 19-28 against an expectation of 22.40-26.25 — three short at one end, two long at the other.

His 41.7 per cent offensive-zone start share is the 17th percentile, the second-hardest among Montreal forwards behind Dvorak.

Four seasons, 186 games, 64 points.

The Finesse Game

55 shots at a median of 27 feet, 39 per cent from inside twenty and 30 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 19 shots on goal and no goals. Inside forty: 34 shots and 2 goals — 5.88 per cent.

Thirty per cent of his volume from beyond forty feet is a high share for a checking centre, and it produced nothing. The thirty-four close shots produced two.

82.9 mph at the 6th percentile, on three slap shots. Twenty goals in 186 career games is the record behind it.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 190, and 28 penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.9 mph, the 84th percentile; bursts 1.3 a game, the 67th; 2.33 miles a game, the 33rd.

He is quicker than he looks and lighter than the job requires. At 190 pounds taking the second-hardest share of defensive-zone draws on the club, he wins pucks with position and anticipation rather than by leaning on anyone.

He kills penalties and takes the hardest faceoffs on the club, which is what he is for.

The Intangibles

Two hundred and seventh overall in 2014 out of Notre Dame, and 186 NHL games since.

A seventh-round pick who plays fourteen minutes a night of the hardest available shifts is a good outcome for a seventh-round pick. Seventeen assists and two goals says the value is entirely defensive.

The 3.6 per cent will rise. Everything else about the file says third-line centre, and Montreal has him at that price.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    30.0% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties and takes the hardest faceoffs on the club, which is what he is for.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He kills penalties and takes the hardest faceoffs on the club, which is what he is for.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “At 190 pounds taking the second-hardest share of defensive-zone draws on the club, he wins pucks with position and anticipation rather than by leaning on anyone.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 621 minutes

Expected goals
46%
27th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.3%
24th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 28 against. Expected: 22.4 and 26.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
27th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 54 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
87th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.33 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.33 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
82.9 mph
27th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 621 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MTL took 44.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.0% — 2.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
621 minutes at five-on-five — 24th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Joel Edmundson47.9%45.2%41.3%
Johnathan Kovacevic45.1%46.5%47.8%
Jordan Harris45.6%46.2%47.2%

47.9% together, 45.2% for him apart and 41.3% for Edmundson apart. Edmundson was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Edmundson than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

70 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 30% from beyond forty.