Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

23

Sean Monahan

Montreal Canadiens Center

Five straight twenty-goal seasons in Calgary, and twenty-five games in the last one.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14CGY75221234-20830214015.715:59
2014-15CGY81313162+812101819116.219:37
2015-16CGY81273663-61870519713.719:10
2016-17CGY82273158-12081419913.617:35
2017-18CGY74313364+324901120215.318:41
2018-19CGY78344882+712120521116.119:03
2019-20CGY70222648-162580516613.318:06
2020-21CGY50101828-6104059810.217:41
2021-22CGY6581523-15245021117.214:04
2022-23MTL2561117-5161005510.917:22
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—681218261479-5116967247157013.917:50

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 11 assists in 25 games — 17 points — at 17:22 a night. Minus-5, 55 shots at 10.9 per cent, 16 penalty minutes.

Seventeen points in twenty-five games is a fifty-six-point pace and the season ended in December.

48.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 38th percentile, with his ice at 12-15 against an expectation of 12.19-13.10 across 296 minutes — far too little to read.

The last four seasons read 70, 50, 65 and 25 games. That is the report.

Ten seasons, 681 games, 479 points.

The Finesse Game

55 shots at a median of 19 feet, 51 per cent from inside twenty and 18 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 8 shots on goal, 2 goals. Inside forty: 45 shots, 4 goals.

Eight long shots is a sample of nothing and two goals from them is a coincidence, recorded and set aside.

80.4 mph at the 2nd percentile. Two slap shots all season, so the reading is close to meaningless as a measure of his hands; what it agrees with is a career that has been built on placement rather than power. He scored 31, 27, 27, 31 and 34 goals in five straight Calgary seasons without ever having a hard shot.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 206, and sixteen penalty minutes.

Top speed 21.6 mph, the 19th percentile; bursts 1.4 a game, the 71st; 2.89 miles a game, the 74th.

He has never been fast and the hips have made it worse. What he plays with instead is timing: he arrives at the net a half-second after the puck does, which at 21.6 mph requires reading the play rather than winning a race.

He is not physical and takes almost no penalties.

The Intangibles

Sixth overall in 2013 out of Ottawa, nine Calgary seasons, and Montreal took the contract with a first-round pick attached to it.

52.7 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 62nd percentile.

He is twenty-nine with 218 career goals and a body that has cost him a hundred and fifty games in four seasons. At a fifty-six-point pace he is still a second-line centre; the question is how many nights a year he is available to be one, and the last four answers are 70, 50, 65 and 25.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “What he plays with instead is timing: he arrives at the net a half-second after the puck does, which at 21.6 mph requires reading the play rather than winning a race.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 296 minutes

Expected goals
48.2%
38th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.2%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 12 for, 15 against. Expected: 12.2 and 13.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
38th

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 25 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
28th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.44 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.89 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.4 mph
19th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 296 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MTL took 44.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.2% — 4.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
296 minutes at five-on-five — 5th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Josh Anderson52.9%43.9%42.6%
Kaiden Guhle43.0%51.0%42.0%
Arber Xhekaj47.2%48.7%41.6%

52.9% together, 43.9% for him apart and 42.6% for Anderson apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

68 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 51% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.