Montreal Canadiens

What the Quant Says

236 goals, 26th in the league, on the 24th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.495 expected goals per 60. For once the two numbers agree with each other: this club does not create and it does not score.

At five-on-five Montreal took 45.6 per cent of the shot attempts, 29th, and 46.1 per cent of the expected goals, 26th. Three clubs in hockey were outshot more heavily. The whole season was spent without the puck.

And it scored 161 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 159.4 — a surplus of 1.6, 17th in the league. Exactly average at finishing, which means the twenty-sixth-place attack is the chances and nothing else.

The power play was 26th at 6.334 expected goals per 60, over the thirteenth-most power-play time. Ordinary volume and poor conversion, on a club that needs everything it can get.

Nick Suzuki had 33 goals and 77 points in all 82 games, converting at 17.8 per cent on 185 shots, and Cole Caufield had 28 goals and 65 points on 314 shots at 8.9 per cent against a career 11.74. Juraj Slafkovsky had 20 goals and 50 points at 19, in his second season, first overall in 2022.

What the Scout Says

Three young forwards and a lot of hoping.

Nick Suzuki shoots at 13.83 per cent for a career and took 275 attempts at a median of 24 feet, 185 of them on goal. He is 5-11 and 207, plays 21:16, takes the hardest centre assignment this club has, and is the most complete forward on the roster by a distance.

Cole Caufield took 440 attempts at a median of 27 feet, 314 of them on goal, and converted 8.9 per cent against a career 11.74. He is 5-8 and 175 and the shot is the whole player; twenty-eight goals on 314 shots is nine short of his own career rate.

Juraj Slafkovsky took 228 attempts at a median of 20 feet, half of them from inside twenty and 9 per cent from beyond forty. That is a first-overall pick learning to use 6-3 and 225 properly, and the shot chart is the most encouraging page in this chapter. Alex Newhook scored 15 in 55 games and Josh Anderson scored 9 in 78.

What the Quant Says

Montreal allowed 2.912 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 29th in the league, and 186.2 expected goals at five-on-five, the fourth-most in hockey. Only San Jose, Columbus and Chicago gave up more dangerous work, and all three of them finished below Montreal in the table.

It conceded 289 goals, 28th — and that is with the fourth-best goaltending in the league standing behind it.

Mike Matheson played all 82 games at 25:33 a night, the third-most of any defenceman in this edition behind John Carlson and Drew Doughty, and had 11 goals and 51 assists for 62 points. His ice went 50-61 against an expectation of 56.73-70.84 — seven goals of scoring that did not arrive and ten fewer conceded than the chances called for. The minus-24 is a workload, not a verdict.

Kaiden Guhle is 22 and took 20:51 a night with his ice at 49-59 against 47.79-58.30. David Savard is 33, has 795 games and a Stanley Cup, and took 20:14. Arber Xhekaj is 6-4 and 240 with 182 career penalty minutes in 95 games and was plus-6, one of only three men on the roster on the right side of the ledger.

Josh Anderson took the 11th percentile of chances — 43.0 per cent over 1,041 minutes — with his ice at 36-46 against 38.78-51.45. Five fewer conceded than the chances called for is the goaltending again, and nine goals in seventy-eight games is the rest of it.

What the Scout Says

One workhorse, two very good young left-handers, and a shot share of 45.6 per cent.

Mike Matheson is 6-2 and 196 and played 25:33 a night at 30, third in the edition. He carries the puck out himself rather than passing it, which on a club that is outshot this heavily is both the reason he has 51 assists and part of the reason for the minus-24.

Kaiden Guhle is 6-3 and 202 and 22 with 114 games and 20:51 a night already. Jayden Struble is 23 and played 56 games in a first season at 16:07. Justin Barron is 22, a first-round pick, and took 18:38 in 48 games.

Arber Xhekaj is 6-4 and 240, undrafted, and has 182 penalty minutes in 95 games — one shot from inside twenty feet all season and ninety per cent of them from beyond forty. David Savard is 33 with 795 games and 431 penalty minutes. The blue line is young, large and not yet good.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 22.2 goals better than the chances it faced, 4th in the league. In front of the twenty-ninth-worst chance suppression in hockey. That is the single most valuable thing this organisation did last season and none of the save percentages look like it.

Samuel Montembeault went 16-15-9 with a .9028 and a 3.14 in 41 games, facing 1,307 shots — the highest save percentage of his career at 27, against a career .8978 across 144 games. Cayden Primeau went 8-9-4 with a .9097 in 23 games, facing 731, with 2 shutouts, against a career .8938 across 44.

A .9028 and a .9097 are not good numbers in isolation, and that is the point. Montreal's skaters conceded 186.2 expected goals at five-on-five and the club allowed 164. The shots this crease faced were the fourth-most dangerous in hockey and it stopped twenty-two more than their quality implied.

Jake Allen took 21 of the games and has gone to New Jersey. What is left is a 27-year-old who has just had the best season of his career and a 25-year-old seventh-round pick with 44 games behind him.

What the Scout Says

The best thing about this club, and neither man's save percentage says so.

Samuel Montembeault is 6-3 and 218 and plays a big, square, deep game, letting the puck hit him rather than going to find it. It is the right style for a goaltender facing the fourth-most dangerous shot diet in hockey, because the volume of second chances would exhaust anybody who moved more. The .9028 is a career best at 27.

Cayden Primeau is 6-3 and 205 and plays higher in his crease, challenging shooters and recovering across on athleticism. A .9097 in 23 games against a career .8938 across 44 is either a step forward or a small sample, and at 25 the club needs to know which.

Twenty-two goals of goaltending on the twenty-ninth-worst chance suppression in the league. If that repeats, this rebuild is a season shorter than it looks; if it does not, the 289 goals against will get worse before the roster gets better.

What the Quant Says

25th in the league at 6.334 expected goals per 60, over 5:02 a night, the thirteenth-most power-play time in hockey. Middling volume, poor rate.

Nick Suzuki scored 12 power-play goals and has 38 in 373 career games. Cole Caufield scored 9 and Juraj Slafkovsky 6. Three young forwards account for twenty-seven of them and the unit is built around Caufield's shot from the left circle.

It is not working yet and the reason is straightforward: the club has no defenceman who runs a power play and no forward who wins a puck back on the wall. Mike Matheson took 5 from the point and is the closest thing to an answer.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-fifth by rate on the fifteenth-most time, which is a unit without a quarterback.

Cole Caufield's shot from the left circle is the only genuine power-play weapon here, and 9 of his 28 goals came a man up. Nick Suzuki's 12 came from below the dots and Juraj Slafkovsky's 6 from the front of the net, which is exactly where a 6-3, 225-pound winger should be scoring them.

Mike Matheson runs the point with 5 goals and 51 assists on the season. He is a puck-carrier rather than a distributor from a standing start, and the unit needs the second kind. Until the club finds one, the fourth-line problem is a first-unit problem.

What the Quant Says

31st in the league at 8.547 expected goals against per 60, over 5:22 a night, the fifth-most shorthanded time in hockey. One club in the league defended a man down worse, and only four spent longer doing it.

That combination — the fifth-most time and the thirty-first-best rate — is close to the worst penalty-killing season in this edition on any reading that counts both halves.

Joel Armia has 14 career shorthanded goals in 505 games and Jake Evans 2 in 268, and both of them played most of it. David Savard and Kaiden Guhle took the defensive pair. The personnel is not the problem so much as the volume: a young club that spends the fifth-most time shorthanded in hockey and cannot defend it.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-first by rate at the fifth-highest volume. There is nothing to defend here.

Joel Armia is 6-3 and 215 with 14 career shorthanded goals in 505 games and is genuinely good at this — a long stick, good reads, and the willingness to pressure the point. Jake Evans is 6-0 and 190 and takes the defensive-zone draw.

David Savard blocks shots and clears the crease at 6-1 and 235 and Kaiden Guhle takes the other side at 22. The pieces are ordinary rather than absent, and a thirty-first-place kill on the fifth-most time is a structural failure rather than a personnel one.