Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

11

Chris Tierney

New Jersey Devils Center

Thirty-seven per cent of the expected goals — the first percentile of this book — across 347 minutes in Montreal.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15SJS4361521+361014812.512:15
2015-16SJS7971320-1620112967.313:12
2016-17SJS80111223061129012.214:36
2017-18SJS821723400832211814.416:00
2018-19OTT8193948-22260011167.817:02
2019-20OTT71112637-62014210210.817:11
2020-21OTT5561319-1280035311.314:59
2021-22OTT7061218-1214302728.312:25
2022-23FLA/MTL363710-860001915.810:52
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—59776160236-731141081571410.614:38

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 7 assists in 36 games — 10 points — listed with Florida and Montreal, at 10:52 a night. Minus-8, 19 shots, six penalty minutes.

Every five-on-five minute this book has for him is Montreal’s — 347 of them — and across those he was on the ice for 37 per cent of the expected goals. That is the 1st percentile of this book, with the goals at 16-25 against an expectation of 9.68-16.49.

Read the second half of that carefully, because it does not run the way the first half does: the goals for came in seven above what the chances deserved and the goals against nine above. On 347 minutes those are small numbers with large error bars, and the honest summary is that almost nothing about this sample is reliable except the share itself, which is very bad.

He started 45.6 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 29th percentile.

Nine seasons, 597 games, 236 points, a career minus-73.

The Finesse Game

19 shots in thirty-six games, at a median of 33 feet.

Three goals on seventeen shots on goal, which is a 15.8 per cent rate on a sample that means nothing.

19 wrist shots out of 28 tracked attempts. A measured 74.2 mph shot, below the slowest reading of any man in this book who played forty games — he did not, so the comparison is only a direction.

What the record actually holds is 160 assists against 76 goals across nine seasons. He was a distributing third-line centre in San Jose and Ottawa and the passing was always the half that worked.

There is no shot to write about and there never was.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 191, with six penalty minutes.

Top speed 21.8 mph, the 23rd percentile; 0.8 bursts a game, the 41st; 1.73 miles a game, the 5th percentile — the lowest on this roster.

Ten minutes and fifty-two seconds a night is the reason for the last of those, and it is also the reason there is very little else to measure.

He does not play a physical game, has never taken penalties, and is not used on the penalty kill any more. At twenty-nine there is no part of the file that gets easier.

The Intangibles

Fifty-fifth overall in 2012 to San Jose, four seasons there, four in Ottawa, and then a season split between Florida and Montreal.

The 48 points in Ottawa in 2018-19 is the high-water mark and it is five seasons old. Everything since has gone in one direction.

He is a depth signing on a club that finished third overall, and the record says he is competing for a job that a 37 per cent chance share does not win.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He was a distributing third-line centre in San Jose and Ottawa and the passing was always the half that worked.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He does not play a physical game, has never taken penalties, and is not used on the penalty kill any more.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 347 minutes

Expected goals
37%
1st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.6%
4th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 16 for, 25 against. Expected: 9.7 and 16.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
1st
Numbers
1st

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 48 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 36 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
34th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.75 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.73 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
74.2 mph
8th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with MTL · 242 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MTL took 44.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 37.0% — 7.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 347 minutes at five-on-five — 8th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Michael Pezzetta36.7%37.2%46.1%
Joel Edmundson44.4%34.7%42.3%
Alex Belzile35.5%37.4%43.4%

36.7% together, 37.2% for him apart and 46.1% for Pezzetta apart. Pezzetta was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

26 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 15% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 38% from beyond forty.