Los Angeles Kings

What the Quant Says

256 goals, 16th in the league, on the 7th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.732 expected goals per 60. A club that creates at the seventh-best rate and scores at the sixteenth is telling you where its problem is, and it is not at five-on-five.

At five-on-five Los Angeles took 53.9 per cent of the shot attempts, fourth in the league, and 54.1 per cent of the expected goals, also fourth. Only three clubs in hockey controlled play better.

And it scored 166 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 174.2 — a shortfall of 8.2, 23rd in the league. Below average at finishing, but not dramatically, and nothing like enough to explain a sixteenth-place attack.

The power play was 22nd in the league at 6.568 expected goals per 60. That is the explanation. The club got the seventeenth-most power-play time in hockey and did less with it than almost anybody.

Kevin Fiala had 73 points and 11 power-play goals. Adrian Kempe had 75 points on a 50.8 per cent chance share — the lowest of any regular forward here, and his ice went 47-34 against an expectation of 40.33-39.10, which is seven goals of finishing above what the chances were worth at one end and five fewer conceded at the other. Trevor Moore scored 31 goals on a 57.9 per cent share.

Anze Kopitar is 37 and had 70 points, converting 19.6 per cent of 133 shots. Quinton Byfield is 22, 6-5 and 230, and had 55 points on an 89th-percentile chance share. Those two carry the middle of this roster in opposite directions of the calendar.

What the Scout Says

A thirty-seven-year-old converting a fifth of his shots, and a 6-5 centre learning what he is.

Anze Kopitar took 133 shots at a median of 21 feet with 48 per cent from inside 20 and converted 19.6 per cent of them. At 37 he no longer shoots often and he has never missed from there. 792 career assists in 1,373 games and he still takes the defensive-zone draw that starts the shift.

Adrian Kempe took 246 shots at a median of 35 feet with 32 per cent from beyond 40 and scored 28. He is the volume shooter and the least efficient one here.

Trevor Moore takes 44 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 23 and scored 31 at 5-11. He forechecks hard and gets to the net and there is nothing else in his game.

Kevin Fiala is the only man on the roster who beats a goaltender from distance. 225 shots at a median of 30 feet, 29 goals, and 428 points in 570 career games.

Quinton Byfield is 6-5 and 230 and takes 47 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet. He protects the puck below the goal line at a size nobody can move and the finishing has not arrived yet.

What the Quant Says

215 goals against, 3rd in the league, and 2.301 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, 3rd. This is the best thing about the club and it has been for four years.

Drew Doughty played all 82 games at 25:48 a night — the second-most ice time of any skater in this edition, behind John Carlson. He is 34, has 1,177 career games, and had 50 points. His ice went 60-44 against an expectation of 67.89-55.51, which is eight goals of scoring that did not arrive and eleven fewer conceded than the chances called for.

Mikey Anderson played 74 games at 20:38 and finished plus-22 on a career plus-52 in 268 games. Vladislav Gavrikov played 77 at 20:37. Neither scores and both take the hardest minutes on the club, which is exactly the arrangement.

Jordan Spence is 5-11 and 188, was born in Australia, and had 22 assists in 71 games at 14:26. His ice went 42-37 against an expectation of 40.44-33.28. He is 23 and the only defenceman here who moves the puck for a living.

Kyle Burroughs arrives from San Jose having finished minus-42 — the fourth-worst mark in this edition — on ice that went 40-80 against an expectation of 48.58-61.97. Eighteen more conceded than the chances called for. That is a Sharks number rather than a Burroughs number and the club should still be careful with it.

Joel Edmundson arrives from Toronto at 6-5 and 220 with 461 career penalty minutes. Andreas Englund took 81 penalty minutes in 82 games. The blue line is large, slow, and very good at its job.

What the Scout Says

Third in the league at suppressing chances, and not one of them does it the same way.

Drew Doughty is 6-1 and 210, plays 25:48 a night at 34, and reads the play a half-second early. 513 career assists in 1,177 games and 769 career penalty minutes. He blocks shots, he retaliates, and the skating has held up better than anybody expected it to.

Mikey Anderson is 6-0 and 195 and defends positionally. 18 penalty minutes in 74 games at twenty minutes a night is a remarkably low rate and a career plus-52 in 268 games says the work is real.

Vladislav Gavrikov is 6-3 and 210 and clears the front of his own net. A sixth-round pick with 353 games who takes the other club's best line every night without complaint.

Andreas Englund is 6-4 and 200 with 140 career penalty minutes in 162 games, and he will fight anybody. Joel Edmundson is 6-5 and 220 with 461 career penalty minutes and does the same job a category larger.

Jordan Spence is 5-11 and 188 and moves the puck, which on this blue line makes him the exception rather than the rule.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 4.5 goals better than the chances it faced, 12th in the league. In front of the third-best chance suppression in hockey that is a disappointment, and the crease that produced it no longer exists.

Cam Talbot took 54 of the games at .9128 and has gone to Detroit. David Rittich went 13-6-3 with a .9211 and a 2.15 in 24 games, facing 621, with 3 shutouts — the best of the three men who played here, undrafted, 32, and a career .9065 across 196 games. Pheonix Copley went 4-1-2 with an .8701 in 8 games, a career .8988 across 76, from North Pole, Alaska.

In Talbot's place is Darcy Kuemper, who went 13-14-3 with an .8904 and a 3.31 in 33 games for Washington, facing 940 shots. That is the eighth-worst save percentage of any goaltender who played twenty-five games in this edition. He is 34, a sixth-round pick, and his career line across 389 games is a .9140 — so last season was 24 points below his own standard. Los Angeles sent Pierre-Luc Dubois to get him.

So the club has traded a top-six forward for a goaltender coming off the eighth-worst season in the league, to replace a man who gave it a .9128, in front of the third-best defence in hockey. That is the bet, and there is no third option behind it.

What the Scout Says

A new starter, a re-signed backup, and the man who actually played the games gone to Detroit.

Darcy Kuemper is 6-5 and 215 and plays deep in his crease, blocking the net with size rather than moving to the puck. It is the right way for a man that size to play and it depends entirely on tracking the first shot cleanly. The rebound control went last season, and behind a club that concedes as little as this one, the second chance will be most of what he faces here.

A .8904 in 33 games against a career .9140 across 389. He is 34 and one bad season at that age is either noise or the beginning, and the club has bet on noise.

David Rittich is 6-3 and 200, undrafted out of Jihlava, and plays a more aggressive game, coming out to challenge rather than sitting back. A .9211 in 24 games with 3 shutouts, against a career .9065. The lateral recovery is the best part of him and it is what lets a positionally ordinary goaltender survive.

Pheonix Copley is 6-4 and 205, undrafted, from North Pole, Alaska, and has 44 wins in 76 career games at an .8988. He is a third goaltender and last season he had to play eight games.

What the Quant Says

22nd in the league at 6.568 expected goals per 60, over 5:09 a night, which is the twelfth-most power-play time in hockey. Ordinary volume, poor conversion, and the single clearest problem on the roster.

Kevin Fiala scored 11 power-play goals and has 44 in his career. He is the one man here who can beat a goaltender from the circle and the unit is arranged around him.

Anze Kopitar scored 9 and has 120 career power-play goals. Drew Doughty scored 7 from the point and has 80 in his career. Quinton Byfield scored 6, Adrian Kempe 5 and Phillip Danault 3.

Trevor Moore scored 2 and Alex Laferriere none in 81 games.

That is a unit with three men who have done it for a decade and no fourth option, and 22nd in the league is what it produced. Nothing was added in the summer.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-second in the league, with three men who have done it for a decade and no fourth.

Kevin Fiala has 44 career power-play goals and shoots from the left circle. He is the only genuine threat on the unit and the opposition knows where he will be.

Anze Kopitar has 120 career power-play goals and works the goal line at 6-3 and 225, holding the puck until somebody moves. Drew Doughty has 80 career power-play goals and shoots from the point at a median of 51 feet.

Quinton Byfield scored 6 and goes to the net at 6-5 and 230, which is the newest and most promising part of the arrangement.

Adrian Kempe scored 5 and has 29 in his career. Alex Laferriere played 81 games and scored none.

Twenty-second in the league on the seventeenth-most power-play time. The club had every chance to fix this and signed four checking forwards instead.

What the Quant Says

22nd in the league at 7.372 expected goals against per 60, over 5:10 a night — the eighth-most shorthanded time in hockey. A club that defends better than almost anybody at five-on-five and worse than almost anybody a man down.

Anze Kopitar has 14 career shorthanded goals in 1,373 games and has killed penalties for eighteen seasons. Trevor Lewis has 11 in 974 games and is 37. Trevor Moore has 10 in 345 and scored 2 last season.

Adrian Kempe has 12 career shorthanded goals and scored 3 last season, which is the most on the club.

Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov defend the front of the net and Drew Doughty blocks shots at 34. The personnel is not the problem: those are the same men who make the five-on-five defence third in the league.

Two units, both 22nd, on a club that is fourth and third at even strength. Whatever is wrong here is structural rather than personnel, and it has now cost two seasons.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-second in the league, killed by the same men who are third at even strength.

Anze Kopitar has 14 career shorthanded goals in 1,373 games and 344 career penalty minutes across eighteen seasons, which is a very low rate for a centre who has always taken the hard assignment.

Trevor Lewis has 11 career shorthanded goals in 974 games and is 37. Trevor Moore has 10 in 345 games and scored 2 last season. Adrian Kempe has 12 and scored 3.

Phillip Danault takes the defensive-zone draw and has 1 career shorthanded goal in 631 games — a defensive centre whose value has never shown up in that particular column.

Vladislav Gavrikov and Mikey Anderson clear the crease and Drew Doughty blocks shots.

There is nothing wrong with this list. It is the same personnel that suppresses chances better than twenty-nine clubs at five-on-five, and a man down it is 22nd. That is a coaching problem or a bad season, and two years of it starts to look like the first.