Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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11

Anze Kopitar

Los Angeles Kings Center

One thousand three hundred and seventy-three games, 1,211 points, and 70 of them last season at 36.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2006-07LAK72204161-122472119310.420:32
2007-08LAK82324577-1522122320115.920:41
2008-09LAK82273966-173271323411.520:27
2009-10LAK82344781+616141225913.121:47
2010-11LAK75254873+252061623310.721:35
2011-12LAK82255176+122082223010.921:20
2012-13LAK47103242+14160019810.220:29
2013-14LAK82294170+3424100920014.520:53
2014-15LAK79164864-21060413411.919:23
2015-16LAK81254974+341651817714.120:52
2016-17LAK76124052-10285001508.020:46
2017-18LAK82355792+212070620017.522:05
2018-19LAK81223860-203012315614.122:18
2019-20LAK70214162+61671513515.621:02
2020-21LAK56133750-71030411811.021:11
2021-22LAK81194867-6146042109.020:46
2022-23LAK82284674+20470416916.620:18
2023-24LAK81264470+112291613319.619:39
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—13734197921211+943441201471323013.020:54

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 26 goals and 44 assists for 70 points, 9 on the power play, 22 penalty minutes, 19:39 a night and plus-11. He took 51.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,134 minutes, the 66th percentile, and his ice went 51-40 against an expectation of 44.42-41.35.

Seven goals of finishing above what the chances were worth. Seventy points at 36 in his eighteenth season, and still nineteen and a half minutes a night.

The Finesse Game

133 shots at a median of 21 feet with 48 per cent from inside 20, converted at 19.6 per cent against a career 13.0.

792 career assists in 1,373 games. He no longer shoots often and he has never missed from close. The hands work in traffic and the head is a half-second ahead of everybody, which is what has kept a player with ordinary feet at the top of a roster for eighteen years.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 225 and protects the puck below the goal line as well as anybody in the league.

22 penalty minutes in 81 games and 344 in 1,373 career games is a very low rate for a centre who has always taken the hard assignment. He takes the defensive-zone draw that starts the shift and he kills penalties with 14 career shorthanded goals.

The Intangibles

Eleventh overall in 2005 out of Jesenice, eighteen seasons, 1,373 games and two Stanley Cups, all of it for one organisation. He has been the captain since 2016 and a Selke winner twice.

He is 37 and the skating is the part that has gone. Everything else is intact and the club has no obvious replacement for any of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is 6-3 and 225 and protects the puck below the goal line as well as anybody in the league.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He takes the defensive-zone draw that starts the shift and he kills penalties with 14 career shorthanded goals.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He takes the defensive-zone draw that starts the shift and he kills penalties with 14 career shorthanded goals.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The hands work in traffic and the head is a half-second ahead of everybody, which is what has kept a player with ordinary feet at the top of a roster for eighteen years.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He has been the captain since 2016 and a Selke winner twice.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,134 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
66th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.2%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 40 against. Expected: 44.4 and 41.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
66th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
19th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.20 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
97.6 mph
97th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1134 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
LAK took 54.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,134 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Adrian Kempe51.4%53.4%46.2%
Quinton Byfield52.0%51.3%65.2%
Drew Doughty53.9%49.9%55.6%

51.4% together, 53.4% for him apart and 46.2% for Kempe apart. Kempe was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Kempe than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

180 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 26 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.