Los Angeles Kings

What the Quant Says

280 goals, 9th in the league.

Los Angeles created 2.750 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 11th, and took 52.3 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 6th, and 53.5 per cent of the expected goals, 6th.

At five-on-five it scored 169 goals against an expectation of 172.1 — a shortfall of 3.1, 23rd in the league.

Adrian Kempe scored 41 goals and had 67 points, Anze Kopitar 28 and 74 at 36 on 4 penalty minutes, Kevin Fiala 23 and 72 with 49 assists, Viktor Arvidsson 26 and 59 in 77 games, Phillip Danault 18 and 54 and Drew Doughty 43 assists and 52 points from the blue line.

Pierre-Luc Dubois arrives from Winnipeg with 27 goals and 63 points at 6-4, with 54 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. Arthur Kaliyev scored 13 goals at 22, eight of them on the power play.

What the Scout Says

Forty-one goals from a twenty-ninth-overall pick, and two centres who start most of their shifts in their own end.

Anze Kopitar is 6-3 and 225 with 1,292 games, 1,141 points, two Stanley Cups and two Selkes. The 96 in hockey sense is the highest grade on any card in this chapter, and he took 4 penalty minutes in 82 games. He turns 36 in this edition's season; a 74-point year at that age is a gift, not a baseline.

Adrian Kempe is 6-2 and 205 with 23.3 mph and 2.8 bursts a game, the 95th percentile. He is the fastest forward on this roster by both measures and one of the few Kings who registers as quick at all. Fourteen goals at 23 and 41 at 26, from a shade to the defensive side of even in deployment.

Phillip Danault is 6-1 and 200 with 90 in hockey sense and 88 in compete, and started 47.0 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone. The minus-8 will be quoted against him and it should not be.

Kevin Fiala is 6-0 and 205 with 49 assists and is one of the two or three men here who create rather than execute. Viktor Arvidsson is 5-10 and 181 with a 99.6 mph shot at the 96th percentile.

Pierre-Luc Dubois arrives at 6-4 and 220, third overall in 2016, after a departure he asked for from Columbus and another he asked for from Winnipeg. Quinton Byfield is 6-5 and 230 at 21. Blake Lizotte is 5-9 with 70 penalty minutes and the 4th percentile in shot velocity.

What the Quant Says

Los Angeles allowed 2.366 expected goals per 60 at even strength — the second-best rate in the league — and conceded 257 goals, 16th. Second at preventing chances and sixteenth in goals against. That gap is the crease.

At five-on-five it conceded 159 goals against an expectation of 149.5, and the club's goaltending came in 9.5 goals worse than the chances it faced, 23rd in the league.

Drew Doughty played 81 games at 26:14 — the largest ice-time figure of any skater in the league who played seventy games — with 43 assists, covering 3.60 miles a game at the 98th percentile off a top speed in the 9th.

Mikey Anderson played 77 games at 21:40 and finished plus-20, at the 7th percentile in top speed and the 5th in bursts. Matt Roy played all 82 at 18:47 with the best chance share on the blue line at 54.9 per cent, from a 194th-overall pick with a 99.0 mph shot.

Vladislav Gavrikov arrives from Columbus at 21:58 a night and 23.3 mph, the 93rd percentile — the fastest defenceman on the roster and the only one whose chance share was under fifty. Sean Durzi has gone to Arizona, Sean Walker to Philadelphia and Alexander Edler does not return.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-six minutes a night at thirty-three, at the ninth percentile in top speed.

Drew Doughty is 6-1 and 210 with 1,095 games, a Norris and two Stanley Cups, and he plays a quarter of every game against the other club's best line from a zone-start share that is dead even. He covers 3.60 miles a game, the 98th percentile, at 21.3 mph, the 9th. The 90 in hockey sense and the 88 in compete are the highest defensive grades in this chapter. The reservation is the age and nothing else.

Mikey Anderson is 6-0 and 195 and is among the slowest defencemen in the league — the 7th percentile in top speed, the 5th in bursts — and he plays 22 minutes a night on the second-hardest assignment on the club. Those two facts have coexisted for four seasons, which is longer than a coincidence lasts.

Matt Roy is 6-2 and 220 and was 194th overall in 2015 out of Michigan Tech. He had the most neutral deployment on the blue line and the best chance share on it, which makes his the most trustworthy number of the four. He is the least famous of these defencemen and by this book's reading the second-best.

Vladislav Gavrikov arrives at 6-3 and 210 with 23.3 mph, the 93rd percentile — a top-four defenceman who can skate, on a club where nobody else on the blue line can. Andreas Englund has 80 NHL games across five seasons and no goals in any of them.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 9.5 goals worse than the chances it faced, 23rd in the league — behind the second-best defence in hockey. Four men played in this crease last season.

Pheonix Copley went 24-6-3 with a .9029 and a 2.64 in 37 games, facing 947 shots. Twenty-four wins on a .9029 is the clearest thing this book can show you about what a goaltender's record measures. His career line across 68 games is a .9016.

Cam Talbot arrives from Minnesota, where he went 17-14-2 with an .8984 in 36 games at 35. His career line across 432 games is a .9135, and he posted a .9411 as a rookie at 26.

David Rittich arrives with a .9012 in 21 games — the second-best save percentage of his last four years — and a career .9045 across 172 games.

Jonathan Quick has gone to New York, Joonas Korpisalo to Ottawa and Calvin Petersen to Philadelphia.

A club that concedes chances at the second-best rate in the league has now cycled seven goaltenders through two seasons and enters this one with a 36-year-old and a career backup. That is the whole of what separates Los Angeles from the top of the West.

What the Scout Says

Four goaltenders last season, two more this summer, and the same problem.

Pheonix Copley is 6-4 and 205 and went 24-6-3 with a .9029 in 37 games. He is large and positionally ordinary, and the record is a description of the club in front of him rather than of him. Twenty-four wins on a .9029 is the clearest thing this book can show you about what a goaltender's record measures.

Cam Talbot arrives at 6-3 and 202 with 432 NHL games and a career .9135, having posted a .9411 as a rookie at 26 and an .8984 at 35. Every stop between those two numbers is in the file, and the recent half of it is the relevant one.

David Rittich arrives with a career .9045 across 172 games and a .9012 last season, which is the second-best figure of his last four years.

Jonathan Quick, Joonas Korpisalo and Calvin Petersen have all gone. Los Angeles concedes fewer chances than any club but Carolina and has spent two summers signing goaltenders in their thirties on one-year money. The structure deserves better and has not been given it.

What the Quant Says

16th in the league at 7.215 expected goals per 60, over 5:05 a night, 13th in power-play time. Ordinary at both.

Adrian Kempe scored 11 power-play goals, Viktor Arvidsson 10, Arthur Kaliyev 8, Kevin Fiala 7, Anze Kopitar 7, Drew Doughty 4, Phillip Danault 3, Trevor Moore 2 and Mikey Anderson 1. Pierre-Luc Dubois scored 11 elsewhere and Trevor Lewis 1.

Anze Kopitar has 111 career power-play goals in 1,292 games, the most on the roster, and Drew Doughty 73 in 1,095. Pierre-Luc Dubois arrives with 36 in 434 — the highest rate here — Kevin Fiala has 33 in 488, Viktor Arvidsson 31 in 528 and Adrian Kempe 24 in 472.

Eight of Arthur Kaliyev's 13 goals came on the power play off a 98.3 mph shot at the 93rd percentile, in 11:41 a night. On a unit that finished sixteenth, that is the most obvious untapped thing on the page.

What the Scout Says

Sixteenth in the league, and the hardest shot on the roster plays eleven minutes a night.

Anze Kopitar has 111 career power-play goals in 1,292 games, the most on the roster, and scored 7. Drew Doughty has 73 in 1,095 and takes the point with a 96.2 mph shot.

Arthur Kaliyev is 22, has a 98.3 mph shot at the 93rd percentile, and scored 8 of his 13 goals on the power play in 11:41 a night. The 82 in his shot grade is the second-highest forward figure in this chapter. Whatever is holding the unit at sixteenth, it is not that he is unavailable.

Viktor Arvidsson scored 10 with a 99.6 mph shot at the 96th percentile — the hardest registered shot on the club — at 5-10 and 181 pounds. Adrian Kempe scored 11 and Kevin Fiala 7 with 33 in 488 career games.

Pierre-Luc Dubois arrives with 36 career power-play goals in 434 games and takes 54 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, which is the net-front piece this unit did not have.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at 6.667 expected goals against per 60, over 5:13 a night, 11th in shorthanded time.

Adrian Kempe scored 3 shorthanded goals, Trevor Moore 1, Matt Roy 1, Vladislav Gavrikov 1 elsewhere and Trevor Lewis 1 elsewhere.

Anze Kopitar has 13 career shorthanded goals in 1,292 games, the most on the roster, and Viktor Arvidsson 11 in 528. Trevor Lewis has 10 in 892, Adrian Kempe 9 in 472, Trevor Moore 8 in 263 — by rate the largest figure here — and Blake Lizotte 3 in 258.

Anze Kopitar took 4 penalty minutes in 82 games at 20:18 a night, which is the fewest of any skater in the league who played seventy games at nineteen minutes or more. Phillip Danault started 47.0 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone and Kopitar 48.2 — both centres take more defensive-zone work than attacking, and that is a large part of why this club conceded the second-fewest chances in hockey.

What the Scout Says

Tenth in the league, and two centres who start most of their shifts in their own end.

Anze Kopitar has 13 career shorthanded goals in 1,292 games and took 4 penalty minutes last season. Phillip Danault started 47.0 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone and has 279 career penalty minutes across nine seasons. Between them they are the reason this club concedes the second-fewest chances in the league.

Viktor Arvidsson has 11 career shorthanded goals in 528 games, Trevor Moore 8 in 263 — by rate the largest figure on the roster — and Adrian Kempe 9 in 472 at the 93rd percentile in top speed.

Trevor Lewis returns at 36 with 10 career shorthanded goals in 892 games and two Stanley Cups. Mikey Anderson is 6-0 and 195 with 78 penalty minutes in 194 games and blocks everything.

Tenth by rate on ordinary volume, from a group nobody would describe as fast. It works because everybody on it is exactly where he is supposed to be.