Los Angeles Kings

What the Quant Says

250 goals and 12th in creating chances at even strength at 2.55 expected goals per 60, with the 3rd-best chance share in the league. The attack is better than its reputation and thinner than its results.

Adrian Kempe had 73 points on 237 shots and Kevin Fiala 60 on 244 — the two highest volumes on the club. Anze Kopitar produced 67 points at 37 on 98 shots, a 21.4 per cent conversion rate that is the highest in this edition and the least repeatable thing in it. Quinton Byfield had 54 points at 23 with a 56.5 per cent chance share, and Warren Foegele 24 goals and a plus-36.

Finishing was 11th, 8.3 goals above expectation. The scoring is genuinely distributed — seven forwards between 37 and 73 points — and there is no 90-point player anywhere on the roster.

What the Scout Says

Seven useful forwards and no dominant one.

Adrian Kempe's speed is elite and the release is heavy and quick in stride, which is the specific combination that makes a rush scorer — and a third of his shots come from beyond 40 feet, because he shoots from wherever the rush ends. Kevin Fiala is the most naturally skilled forward here: quick, disguised, able to beat a man from a standing start, and he does not forecheck, does not win pucks and gives up possession rather than absorbing contact.

Kopitar shoots only when the better option is gone — 98 attempts in 81 games — and the hockey sense has not declined at all. Quinton Byfield has learned to protect the puck below the goal line and win the wall at 6-5, which he did not do two years ago, and creates by carrying into space rather than by making something happen once there.

The rest is checking, and it is very good checking. Danault, Warren Foegele forechecking with genuine force, Trevor Moore at 5-11 playing as though he is not, Alex Laferriere taking 193 shots from a third line at 23. Corey Perry does everything within fifteen feet of the net at 40 and remains one of the most disliked opponents in hockey. Andrei Kuzmenko is the one man here who does not defend, and this is the least forgiving structure in the league for that.

What the Quant Says

206 goals against and 1st in the league at even-strength expected goals against, 2.15 per 60. This is the best defensive structure in hockey by the numbers, and it does not depend on any one defenceman.

Mikey Anderson played 22:41 a night against the other club's best line and posted 53.8 per cent with 28 penalty minutes across 77 games. Phillip Danault was at 58.1 per cent, the 98th percentile — the best figure on the club — from the third-line centre position. Brandt Clarke had 33 points at 22 with on-ice goals of 50-21.

Read the ratings carefully. Joel Edmundson finished plus-25 on a 50.6 per cent chance share, with on-ice goals of 64-47 against an expected 50.4-51.8 — 28 goals of help. Jacob Moverare posted a 97th-percentile share in 530 minutes and did not take a single shot from inside 20 feet. Drew Doughty played 30 games after breaking an ankle in the last preseason game.

Vladislav Gavrikov has gone to New York and been replaced by Cody Ceci at 31 and Brian Dumoulin at 33.

What the Scout Says

A shutdown pairing, a genuinely exciting young puck-mover, and two men in their thirties replacing a better one.

Mikey Anderson takes 82 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet and scored 6 goals, which is exactly what he is for: keep the puck alive at the line, box out in front, and never be late. Drew Doughty still sees the outlet before the forecheck arrives and 13 assists in 30 games is a first-pair rate, and the ankle took the recovery speed longest to return.

Brandt Clarke is the reason to watch this blue line. The distribution is genuinely special and the defensive reads are a year or two behind — he is beaten in board battles by stronger forwards, does not clear a net front, and took 46 penalty minutes in sixteen minutes a night, which is the tell.

Joel Edmundson is 6-5 and clears a crease and took 88 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet and 3 per cent from inside 20. Jacob Moverare took none at all from inside 20 and posted a 97th-percentile share. Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin both move the puck safely and neither is Vladislav Gavrikov.

What the Quant Says

Darcy Kuemper went 31-11-7 with a .9211, a 2.02 average and 5 shutouts across 50 games — the best save percentage and the best goals-against average of any goaltender in this edition.

The club's goaltending came in 13.1 goals better than the chances faced, 8th in the league. Both halves of that are true: he was genuinely excellent, and he was excellent behind the best chance suppression in hockey, which is the easiest crease in the league to look good in.

At 35 he has played 50 games once in four seasons. Anton Forsberg arrives from Ottawa with a .9010 in 30, which is a competent backup. On a club whose entire margin is defensive, this is the least secure part of the structure.

What the Scout Says

A genuinely excellent season in the easiest crease in the league, and no depth behind it.

Darcy Kuemper is 6-5 and plays large and still — taking away the top of the net without surrendering the angles, tracking well through traffic, never travelling further than the puck requires. The rebound control is good and the puck-handling is a real asset behind a club that breaks out cleanly. What has thinned at 35 is the recovery on a second play, which is the standard decline for a big positional goaltender, and behind a defence that concedes the fewest chances in the league it is rarely exposed.

Anton Forsberg is 6-3 and positional and unhurried, playing a fairly deep crease and relying on the chance being ordinary. The lateral movement is adequate rather than quick and the rebound control is the weaker half, neither of which will be tested often here. Eleven seasons and six organisations of being waived and claimed have made him unbothered by anything.

What the Quant Says

22nd at 6.58 expected goals per 60, over 4:14 a night — the 4th-fewest power-play minutes in the league. Below average, and rarely on the ice.

Fiala scored 14 power-play goals — nearly a third of the club's total — with Kempe 7, Kopitar 4, Andrei Kuzmenko 4. Brandt Clarke has the best distribution instincts on the roster and played sixteen minutes a night. The unit is Fiala's shot and a great deal of perimeter movement, and on a club that scores 250 goals in total it is the phase with the most obvious headroom.

What the Scout Says

One shot and a great deal of movement.

Kevin Fiala is the unit — 14 of the club's power-play goals — and the reason is that his release is quick enough to punish a killer who is a half-step late, from a distance most players cannot threaten from. Adrian Kempe is the second option off the flank and Anze Kopitar runs it from below the goal line with the patience the arrangement needs.

What it lacks is a man in the paint and a point shot that has to be respected. Brandt Clarke's distribution is the best on the roster and he does not have the release to make a box move, and nobody in the top six is willing to stand in front of a goaltender for two minutes. Corey Perry was signed at 40 and that is precisely the job he has done for four different clubs in four consecutive finals.

What the Quant Says

5th in the league at 6.55 expected goals against per 60, over 4:52 a game — the 6th-heaviest workload. Very good at the job and asked to do plenty of it.

Anderson and Edmundson clear the front of the net, Danault and Kopitar take the draws, Trevor Moore and Foegele supply the pressure. Joel Armia was signed with 3 shorthanded goals on his record to add another. The discipline is exceptional across the roster — Kopitar took 4 penalty minutes all season, Moore 14, Dumoulin 14, Foegele 24 — and Corey Perry's 61 is the outlier the club has bought deliberately.

What the Scout Says

Excellent, and it is the discipline as much as the personnel.

Anze Kopitar's 4 penalty minutes and Mikey Anderson's 28 are the mechanism: this club defends aggressively because it does not put itself back on the kill for doing so. Anderson boxes out and blocks shots, Edmundson clears the crease by force, and between them very little arrives from the interior.

Phillip Danault takes the draws that Kopitar does not and reads a breakout as well as any forward in the league. Trevor Moore and Warren Foegele supply the pressure at speed. Joel Armia arrives with 3 shorthanded goals, which is a specific and rare skill and exactly what a 5th-ranked unit adds when it wants to be 1st.