Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

82

Caleb Jones

Los Angeles Kings Defense

Twenty-five games in Colorado, a career minus-35, and a fourth club looking for a seventh defenceman.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19EDM17156-96000214.819:48
2019-20EDM43459-1100013810.514:08
2020-21EDM33044-76000230.013:36
2021-22CHI5151015-318001578.816:43
2022-23CHI7341216-1940101864.719:13
2023-24COL25055+48000190.012:12
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—242144155-35881032445.716:20

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

25 games in Colorado, no goals and 5 assists, 8 penalty minutes, 12:12 a night and plus-4. He took 51.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 297 minutes, the 66th percentile, and his ice went 13-9 against an expectation of 11.81-11.00, all of it with the Avalanche.

A short season in a hard role that went slightly better than the chances, and not a sheltered one: 36.3 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 4th percentile. Twenty-five games is what a seventh defenceman gets.

The Finesse Game

19 shots without a goal at a median of 53 feet.

41 career assists in 242 games. He skates well enough to carry the puck out of trouble and that is the whole of the case for him. Fourteen goals in six seasons.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 184 and does not defend with weight.

8 penalty minutes in 25 games. He is not physical, he does not block many shots, and he is easy to move from in front of his own net.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick in 2015 out of Arlington, Texas, six seasons across three organisations, and 55 points in 242 games. His brother Seth was fourth overall in 2013.

He is 27 and a career minus-35 across three clubs describes the ice he has been given as much as the player. This is a seventh defenceman and the club has signed him as one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He skates well enough to carry the puck out of trouble and that is the whole of the case for him.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is not physical, he does not block many shots, and he is easy to move from in front of his own net.”

  • shot-blockerhe lacks it· gets in front of it

    “He is not physical, he does not block many shots, and he is easy to move from in front of his own net.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is not physical, he does not block many shots, and he is easy to move from in front of his own net.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 297 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
66th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.2%
37th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 9 against. Expected: 11.8 and 11.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
66th

The numbers rank him 58 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 25 games

Top speed
21.0 mph
20th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.40 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.76 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.8 mph
22nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with COL · 297 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
COL took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 0.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
297 minutes at five-on-five — 6th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jack Johnson49.5%54.0%47.5%
Miles Wood50.1%52.3%48.1%
Ross Colton49.9%52.5%52.3%

49.5% together, 54.0% for him apart and 47.5% for Johnson apart. He was better away from Johnson, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Johnson.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

24 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 0 of them goals. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 58% from beyond forty.