Los Angeles Kings

What the Quant Says

The weakest part of a good team. 225 goals, fourth-fewest in the league, from a club that took 51.9 per cent of the chances — seventh. The gap is finishing: Los Angeles scored 14.1 goals below expectation at 5-on-5, 27th.

Adrian Kempe carried it with 36 goals and 73 points while also being the club's best defensive forward. The encouraging names are the young ones: Quinton Byfield, 24, 6-5, 49 points at the 77th percentile; Alex Laferriere, 24, 21 goals at the 72nd. Alex Turcotte took 61 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at the 93rd percentile in a fourth-line role.

And then the roster the club actually went out and bought: Artemi Panarin at 34, Mats Zuccarello at 39, Corey Perry at 41, Erik Haula at 35, Scott Laughton at 32. Panarin's 84 points are real. But this is a club whose scoring problem is finishing, adding 5 forwards on the wrong side of 30, with Anze Kopitar off the roster and Byfield and Laferriere still waiting for the minutes.

What the Scout Says

3 men can make something from nothing and the rest of the group finishes what is created. Artemi Panarin's give-and-go off the left wall is close to unstoppable when he has a linemate who moves without the puck, and the shot is underrated only because the passing is so conspicuous. Kevin Fiala can shoot in stride off either foot with a release quick enough to beat goaltenders from distance; what separates his good months from his bad ones is decision-making, because when it is not going he tries to beat the same defenceman 3 times in a shift and the play dies on the wall. Mats Zuccarello throws the puck flat and hard enough that it gets one-timed rather than settled.

Adrian Kempe is the finisher: genuinely fast in a straight line, dangerous without the puck because he beats defencemen to open ice and arrives with his stick down, and willing to take the punishment at the net. Quinton Byfield is the one who could change the club — 6-5, at top speed in four or five strides, carrying the puck through the neutral zone at that speed so defencemen have to back off — and the frustration is that he initiates almost nothing. There is a version of him that cannot be defended and it requires him deciding to be heavy. Underneath, Alex Laferriere and Trevor Moore win pucks back and hand them to better players, and Corey Perry still has the best sense of where a rebound is going on the roster.

What the Quant Says

The strength, and the clearest illustration of the club's habit. 3rd in the league in even-strength expected goals against at 2.33 per 60, with only 247 conceded.

Brandt Clarke is 23, put up 40 points, and posted the 81st percentile in chance share. The 3 men playing beside and behind him — Joel Edmundson at 33, Brian Dumoulin at 35, Cody Ceci at 32, all acquired elsewhere — took 53:48 a night between them and returned 49 points, at the 41st, 62nd and 60th percentiles. Clarke outplayed all 3 and played less than Doughty, Anderson, Dumoulin or Edmundson.

Drew Doughty at 36 is still the best of them, 23:05 a night at the 86th percentile in his eighteenth season with 1 club. Mikey Anderson takes the hardest defensive minutes and produces nothing on purpose. This is a functioning, effective, expensive, ageing blue line with one young player on it who is already better than most of the men in front of him.

What the Scout Says

The most sound and least spectacular group in the league. Mikey Anderson closes early and forces attackers to decide before they have their options, gets pucks out of his own end without drama, and takes the hard assignment every night for no attention at all. Brian Dumoulin does the same thing more slowly and larger: the safe first pass every time, the middle taken away, play forced outside, nothing memorable. Cody Ceci is a right shot who plays 17 honest minutes, which is scarcer than it sounds and is why he has been paid to do it for a decade.

Drew Doughty is the exception and the complication. The reads are still the best part of him and probably always were — he steps up into the neutral zone to kill a rush before it starts, and the anticipation covers ground his feet no longer can. He is also being asked for 23 minutes a night at 36 on a club with younger defencemen ready for them. Brandt Clarke is the one waiting: he walks the offensive blue line as well as any young defenceman in the league, changing the angle until a lane opens rather than firing into shin pads, and his own-zone coverage reads are a year or two behind the rest of him. Joel Edmundson supplies the weight and gets beaten wide. Watching the handover from Doughty to Clarke is the most interesting thing about this club.

What the Quant Says

Quietly excellent, and not from the man expected to provide it. Anton Forsberg took 36 games and stopped .9086 with a 2.57 average; Darcy Kuemper took 50 and stopped .8914.

Collectively Los Angeles got 13.7 goals more than the chances faced were worth, 7th in the league — which on top of the fifth-best defensive structure is why a club that scored 225 goals still only conceded 247. Forsberg is 33 and outperformed the starter by nearly 2 full percentage points on the same defence. That is the cheapest available upgrade on this roster and it requires no trade.

What the Scout Says

2 goaltenders of the same type, one of whom is running out of season. Darcy Kuemper is 6-5 and plays the way big men do — square early, quiet in the crease, letting shots hit him, making hard nights look procedural at his best. The lateral movement has always been the limitation, so plays that move the puck across the royal road get him going late, and he is beaten more often on the second look than the first. He does not spiral after a soft goal, and he has never been demonstrative, which cuts both ways on a club that could use somebody stealing games.

Anton Forsberg is the same profile a size smaller and considerably cheaper: technically sound, square, nothing about his game athletic or memorable, which is usually a compliment at the position. Being a backup for a decade requires a temperament and he has it — he goes weeks without playing and delivers a competent start. The club is not short of an option. What it does not have is anyone who wins a game the team did not deserve.

What the Quant Says

29th in the league at 6.71 expected goals per 60, on 4:35 a night, 24th. For a club whose entire problem is putting the puck in the net, the second-worst power play in the Western Conference is the most expensive thing on the page.

Kempe managed 4 power-play goals, Byfield 4, Kevin Fiala 4, Panarin 4 elsewhere. Clarke already runs a power play at 23 and had 2. There is no shortage of skill here — Panarin, Fiala, Kempe, Clarke — and there is a shortage of goals from it, which makes this a structural problem rather than a personnel one.

What the Scout Says

As well-stocked a unit as this roster has. Mats Zuccarello holds the puck on the half-wall, moves one killer and delivers the pass that was available for a quarter of a second; Artemi Panarin is a genuine threat shooting from the off wing and a genuine threat not shooting from it, which is the whole difficulty of defending him. Kevin Fiala is dangerous from the other side in the same way.

The net front is the best part of it. Corey Perry stands there, screens, tips and turns the ugly puck into a goal, and he is still one of the better players in the league at that specific job at an age when his contemporaries are broadcasting. Adrian Kempe shoots from the tops of the circles, which most wingers do not attempt. Brandt Clarke is the future of the point on it, walking the line and finding the low pass most defencemen would not try. What is missing is a heavy, feared shot from the blue line — Doughty no longer drives it and nobody else here has that weapon.

What the Quant Says

12th at 6.75 expected goals against per 60, and Los Angeles was shorthanded only 4:42 a game, 24th — a disciplined club with a top-half kill.

Joel Armia's 4 shorthanded goals were tied for 2nd in the league, and Mikey Anderson, Dumoulin and Ceci are exactly the sort of defencemen a good kill is built from. This is the phase where the veteran-heavy construction genuinely pays: killing penalties is the part of the game where being 33 and positionally perfect is worth more than being 23 and fast.

What the Scout Says

The deepest and most experienced part of the roster. Erik Haula is the model: he wins faceoffs, is comfortable taking a defensive draw with a lead in the third period, and does not turn pucks over in bad places. Scott Laughton forechecks hard, kills, and takes the defensive draws he is given without complaint. Trevor Moore is quick to loose pucks and trusted in the last minute of a period. Joel Armia is a real shorthanded threat because of the reach and his ability to hold a puck under pressure — when he is engaged he is very hard to handle, and the inconsistency scouts have noted since he was drafted 16th overall has never gone away. Alex Turcotte's defensive game is the reason he has a career.

On the back end it is Mikey Anderson's gap control and Brian Dumoulin blocking shots and boxing out, with Joel Edmundson's size in front and Cody Ceci willing in the same place. Nobody here removes a man from the crease outright, so the kill works by taking away the middle and living with what comes from the outside. Corey Perry's 81 penalty minutes and Adrian Kempe's 58 are the club's own contribution to how often it is needed, and both are engagement rather than recklessness.