Winnipeg Jets

What the Quant Says

277 goals, and 16th at creating chances at even strength at 2.499 expected goals per 60. That is an average process producing a very good goals column, and the finishing is only a small part of why.

At five-on-five the club scored 163 goals against an expectation of 157 — a finishing surplus of 6.0 goals, 13th in the league.

Kyle Connor had 97 points and 41 goals on 267 shots. Mark Scheifele had 87 points, 39 goals and eleven game-winners at a 21.6 per cent conversion. Gabriel Vilardi scored 27 in 71 games with 12 of them a man up. Josh Morrissey threw 48 assists from the blue line and Cole Perfetti had 50 points at 23.

The shot locations are unusually good for a club this middling at chance creation. Vladislav Namestnikov takes 71 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, Vilardi 62, Adam Lowry 54, Alex Iafallo 53 and Scheifele 49.

What the Scout Says

A club that shoots from the paint far more than its chance-creation rank suggests.

Vladislav Namestnikov takes 71 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 14 — the most net-front profile in this chapter. Gabriel Vilardi takes 62 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 16 and converted 20.8 per cent, and he is 6-3 and 216 and cannot be moved out of the blue paint.

Mark Scheifele shoots from a median of 21 feet with 49 per cent inside 20 and converted 21.6 per cent — a first-line centre who takes almost nothing from distance. Adam Lowry takes 54 per cent from inside 20 and Alex Iafallo 53.

Kyle Connor is the exception and the volume — 267 shots at a median of 28 feet, converting 15.4 per cent, with a release that gets away before a goaltender has finished setting. He threw 56 assists as well.

Cole Perfetti's hockey sense is the best thing about him and Josh Morrissey's 48 assists were the second-largest source of offence on the roster.

What the Quant Says

191 goals against, and 9th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.348 per 60. Good, and not as good as the goals column says.

At five-on-five the club conceded 114 goals against an expectation of 146. That thirty-two-goal difference is the crease and there is no second explanation available.

Josh Morrissey played 24:23 a night at the 85th percentile of chances on 22 penalty minutes. Dylan DeMelo was plus-31 in 82 games and Dylan Samberg plus-34 in 60, and Samberg took the 83rd percentile at 6-4 and 216. Neal Pionk's ice conceded sixteen fewer goals than the chances predicted.

The one gap is the third pair. Luke Schenn's ice went 33-40 against an expectation of 41.12-41.45 — thirteen conceded above expectation, the only negative differential on the blue line — and Haydn Fleury took 45.8 per cent of the chances, the 18th percentile.

What the Scout Says

One exceptional puck-mover, a great deal of size, and a third pair that gives it back.

Josh Morrissey carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and the skating is what makes 24:23 a night possible at 195 pounds. He does not clear his crease by force and never has. 48 assists and 22 penalty minutes is the season.

Dylan DeMelo's first pass is early, short and to the correct side of the ice, which is precisely what lets Morrissey leave the zone with the puck. He was plus-31. Neal Pionk is undrafted out of Minnesota-Duluth with 256 points in 536 games and will carry the puck out rather than chip it.

Dylan Samberg is 6-4 and 216, clears the front of his own net by force and blocks shots, and he was plus-34 at the 83rd percentile of chances.

Below that it is size and not much else. Logan Stanley is 6-7 and defends the rush with reach almost nobody gets around; Luke Schenn is 225 pounds with 852 penalty minutes in 1,072 games; Haydn Fleury took the 18th percentile of chances.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 32.0 goals better than the chances faced, 1st in the league by a distance. It is the largest figure in this edition and it is the season.

Connor Hellebuyck went 47-12-3 with a .9249, a 2.00 average and 8 shutouts in 63 games, facing 1,664 shots. He won the Vezina and the Hart Trophy, the first goaltender to take the Hart in a decade.

Eric Comrie went 9-10-1 with a .9141 in 20 games — the best full season of a career that carries an .8984 across 77 games, and it came behind the 8th-best chance suppression in hockey.

A club that concedes 114 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 146 is a club whose entire margin sits in one crease. That is a wonderful thing to have and a dangerous thing to depend on.

What the Scout Says

The best goaltender in the world, and twenty games a year of something considerably less.

Connor Hellebuyck is 6-4 and 207 and plays deeper than almost anybody at this level. He sets in the crease, he does not chase the shot out, and the puck finds him. The rebound control is the best in the league and it is the whole method — a club that concedes 32 fewer goals than its chances is a club that is not defending second shots. He tracks pucks through traffic as well as anybody in the sport.

He has been an NHL starter for ten seasons and 568 games at a .9176, on clubs that have been good, average and bad. He is the first goaltender to win the Hart Trophy in a decade. He has also been the best player in the league in October and something less in May, repeatedly, and that is now the only conversation about him.

Eric Comrie is 6-1 and 190 and the rebound control is the weakness — a career .8984 across 77 games says the second chance goes to the wrong place. The lateral recovery is quick, which is the compensation a goaltender that size needs. Twenty starts behind a Hart Trophy winner is the narrowest job in hockey.

What the Quant Says

8th in the league at 7.866 expected goals per 60, over 4:13 a night — a good unit on a modest amount of opportunity.

Gabriel Vilardi scored 12 power-play goals, Mark Scheifele 11, Kyle Connor 9, Alex Iafallo 6 and Cole Perfetti 5. That is a properly distributed unit rather than one man's shooting percentage.

The construction is right. Vilardi takes 62 per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 16 and stands where a goaltender needs to see through him; Connor's release from the left circle is among the quickest in the league; Scheifele shoots from a median of 21 feet; and Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk move it from the points.

It is the phase of this club that least depends on the goaltender, and it is 8th.

What the Scout Says

A screen who cannot be moved, a release from the left circle, and two points who both pass well.

Gabriel Vilardi is 6-3 and 216 and establishes position in the blue paint and stays, and he takes 62 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 16. He scored 12 a man up.

Kyle Connor's release is among the quickest in the league and he gets it away from the top of the circle before a goaltender has finished setting. Mark Scheifele delays and holds the puck a half-second past where a defenceman expects, which is what makes the seam pass available at all.

Josh Morrissey walks the line and holds the puck until a forechecker commits, and Neal Pionk runs the second unit with a heavy shot from the point.

Five men who each do one thing well, and 8th in the league is about right for it.

What the Quant Says

12th in the league at 6.911 expected goals against per 60, over 4:17 a game — the 12th-heaviest workload. Average at both, on a club whose crease made average look excellent.

Adam Lowry takes the hardest defensive draws on the roster and Morgan Barron scored 2 shorthanded goals at 6-4 and 220. Kyle Connor scored 2 as well, which is unusual for a first-line winger. Dylan DeMelo and Alex Iafallo are the discipline — 38 penalty minutes in 82 games and 15 in 82.

The volume comes from the blue line. Logan Stanley took 78 penalty minutes in 63 games, Luke Schenn 45 in 76, Neal Pionk 44 in 69 and Colin Miller 38 in 60, and a good share of it is the stick foul that follows losing a step.

Gustav Nyquist and Tanner Pearson were added in the summer — 16 and 8 penalty minutes in 79 and 78 games — which is the right kind of player for the phase.

What the Scout Says

A 6-5 centre on the first unit, a 6-4 winger who scores shorthanded, and a blue line that fouls.

Adam Lowry wins the draw that begins the shift, takes the hardest defensive assignment on the roster, and forechecks a power play rather than sitting inside the box. Morgan Barron kills at 6-4 and 220 and scored 2 shorthanded goals on 16 penalty minutes in 74 games.

Alex Iafallo took 15 penalty minutes in 82 games, and 101 in 584 career games — one of the lowest rates in this edition. Dylan DeMelo blocks shots and does not retaliate.

The problem is upstream of the kill. Logan Stanley took 78 penalty minutes, Luke Schenn 45, Neal Pionk 44 and Colin Miller 38, and in every case a share of it is the stick foul after losing a step. This club is 16th in shorthanded time and it does not need to be.