Winnipeg Jets

What the Quant Says

252 goals, 17th in the league, off the 12th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.720 per 60). Five places of difference in the wrong direction, and finishing rated minus-17.2, 30th.

Kyle Connor scored forty-seven — a career high by nine — and took ninety-three points, a career high by twenty, off 317 shots and the 4th-largest workload of 393 forwards. Nine game-winners is the most on the club.

Mark Scheifele took seventy in sixty-seven games at an 18.2 per cent conversion, the 24th-highest of 393. Pierre-Luc Dubois scored twenty-eight, fifteen of them on the power play. Nikolaj Ehlers scored twenty-eight in sixty-two games off the 5th-most shots per 60 in the league. Blake Wheeler took sixty at 36.

Josh Morrissey added thirty-seven points from the blue line and Neal Pionk thirty-four.

And then it stops. After Wheeler's sixty the next-highest forward total is Sam Gagner's thirty-one, and the club's sixth-highest forward is a 33-year-old fourth-liner acquired from Detroit.

What the Scout Says

Kyle Connor is the cleanest file on the roster and one of the odder ones in the book. Forty-seven goals, ninety-three points, 317 shots, the 4th-largest workload of 393 forwards — and four penalty minutes, which is 0.070 taken per 60, the 2nd-fewest in the league behind Jack Hughes.

He also drew the 5th-fewest, recorded the 26th-fewest hits, and blocked at the 6th percentile. Nobody in this book is less involved in the physical exchange at either end of it, and he scored forty-seven.

Nikolaj Ehlers is the argument this chapter should be having. 13.12 shots per 60 is the 5th-most of 393 forwards, from a 31-foot median that is the 28th-longest and a 35 per cent slot share that is the 16th-lowest — a man who shoots constantly from distance and scored twenty-eight in sixty-two games. His ice went 55-34 against an expectation of 47.54-43.05: seven and a half better in front and nine fewer against, the only forward on the club to beat expectation in both directions. He is 168 pounds, the 4th-lightest man in this edition, was measured the 18th-fastest of 365 forwards, and played 18:04 a night.

Mark Scheifele converted 18.2 per cent — the 24th-highest of 393 — off the 39th-percentile shot rate, and carried a minus-17 whose five-on-five ledger is very nearly even.

Pierre-Luc Dubois drew 1.958 penalties per 60, the 7th-most in the league, and gave back 1.76. Fifteen of his twenty-eight goals came on the power play and his even-strength rate is the 59th percentile.

Blake Wheeler is 36 and covered the 31st-lowest mileage per 60 of 365 forwards, at the 92nd percentile of ice time.

Adam Lowry's 0.867 even-strength points per 60 is the 16th-lowest of 393, and his share swings twenty points depending on which defence pair is behind him.

What the Quant Says

257 goals against, 20th in the league, off the 23rd-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.705 per 60). The structure and the result agree and both are below average.

Josh Morrissey played 23:40 a night and covered 8.869 miles per 60 — the 16th-most of the 192 tracked defencemen — at 6-0 and 195 pounds.

Dylan DeMelo took the 34th-best expected-goal share of all 202 defencemen out of an even chair, on the 19th-slowest top speed of 192, the 29th-fewest sprints and the 27th-lowest mileage. All three tracking measurements in the bottom fifth of the position, and one of the best chance shares at it.

Brenden Dillon conceded eleven fewer goals than his expectation — the largest defensive surplus on the club — while hitting at the 18th-most of 202.

Neal Pionk took 46.8 per cent of the expected goals at 21:08 a night, the 57th-lowest of 202, and his ice still conceded six fewer than the model asked.

Nate Schmidt took 0.193 penalties per 60, the 7th-fewest of 202, and 1.43 hits per 60, the 12th-fewest.

Logan Stanley was measured at 20.4 mph — the 3rd-slowest of 192 defencemen — with the 7th-fewest sprints, and gave the puck away 3.70 times per 60, the 2nd-most of 202.

What the Scout Says

Josh Morrissey is the file this chapter turns on and the record is genuinely divided about him.

6-0 and 195 pounds, 23:40 a night — the 89th percentile — and 8.869 miles per 60, the 16th-most of the 192 tracked defencemen. Twelve goals, thirty-seven points and 173 shots are all career highs, and 54.5 per cent of the expected goals is the 33rd-best of all 202 defencemen.

Against that: 0.83 even-strength points per 60 is the 34th percentile, forty-one per cent of his scoring came on the power play, and 0:57 a night short-handed is the 27th. The production is a power-play production and the defensive assignment is somebody else's.

And his ice went 59-60 against an expectation of 70.41-58.83 — the 8th-largest shortfall in front of any skater in this edition. A top-pair defenceman on a club that finished 30th in finishing carries that whether or not it is his.

Dylan DeMelo is the counter-argument to every skating metric in this book. The 19th-slowest top speed of 192 defencemen, the 29th-fewest sprints, the 27th-lowest mileage — all three in the bottom fifth — and the 34th-best expected-goal share of 202, out of a chair one-tenth of a point off even. He scored one goal in seventy-six games and has eight in 397.

The Morrissey-DeMelo pairing took 56.2 per cent of the attempts across 1,293, and both men were worse apart. That is the rarer of the two wowy findings and it is the best thing on this blue line.

Brenden Dillon conceded eleven fewer than expectation and hit at the 18th-most of 202, at a cost of the 16th-percentile penalty differential and 690 career penalty minutes.

Neal Pionk scored three times from 140 shots — the 26th-lowest conversion of 202 — and took a 22nd-percentile attempt share at twenty-one minutes a night.

Logan Stanley is 6-7 and was measured the 3rd-slowest of 192 with the 7th-fewest sprints, and gave the puck away at the 2nd-highest rate of all 202. He blocks at the 6th-most and hits at the 17th-most, which is the job, and the first-round pick beside his name is why it reads as a disappointment.

What the Quant Says

Plus-10.5 goals saved above expectation, 8th in the league.

Connor Hellebuyck played sixty-six games and faced 2,155 shots — the most of any of the fifty-three goaltenders who played twenty-five games — at a .9104 that is 25th of the same fifty-three.

The five-on-five ledger: 162 conceded against an expectation of 172.5. Ten and a half fewer than the model asked.

A 25th-ranked save percentage produced the 8th-ranked goaltending value, and the reason is the volume. Two thousand one hundred and fifty-five shots is a great many chances to be worth ten goals over.

He has 11,640 career shots at .9156 across seven seasons, six of which read between .9104 and .9238. That is the most settled goaltending record in this batch of three clubs by a wide margin.

Behind him, Eric Comrie's nineteen games have gone to Buffalo and David Rittich arrives from Nashville with 431 shots at .8863 and a career .9049 across 4,122.

What the Scout Says

This is the best goaltending file in the batch and the most heavily evidenced.

Connor Hellebuyck faced 2,155 shots, the most of any of the fifty-three goaltenders who played twenty-five games, across sixty-six appearances — the second-largest game total. His .9104 is 25th of the fifty-three, and the club rated plus-10.5, 8th in the league.

Those two facts fit together through volume. A save percentage at the league median, produced over more shots than anybody else faced, is worth ten and a half goals. The five-on-five ledger says the same thing: 162 conceded against an expectation of 172.5.

The career record is what separates him from every other goaltender in this batch. 11,640 shots at .9156 across seven seasons, six of which sit between .9104 and .9238. Vegas is asking three men with 5,352 career shots between them to split a season; Winnipeg has one man with more than double that on his own.

The .9104 is the second-lowest number of his career and it came on the largest volume of it, which is the reading to keep: he is 29, the workload has not fallen, and the band around his true number is narrow.

Behind him the position is open. Eric Comrie's nineteen games have gone to Buffalo. David Rittich arrives with 4,122 career shots at .9049, whose two real seasons ended four years ago in Calgary and whose last three read .9006, .8863 and thirty-six total appearances.

A club that finished 30th in finishing and 8th in goaltending is not a club with a goaltending problem. It is a club whose goaltender is the only reason the record reads 39-32-11.

What the Quant Says

15th in the league at 7.124 expected goals per 60, over 5:00 a night — the 9th-largest workload. A middling unit given a lot of time.

Pierre-Luc Dubois scored fifteen power-play goals off 3:07 a night, which is more than half his season's total and the most on the club by seven.

Mark Scheifele took 3:28 at the 95th percentile among forwards and scored seven. Kyle Connor 3:24 at the 93rd and scored eight. Blake Wheeler 3:11 at the 90th and scored three.

Josh Morrissey ran the point at 2:32 — the 87th percentile among defencemen — and took forty-one per cent of his thirty-seven points there, the 92nd percentile. Neal Pionk took 2:11 and thirty-five per cent.

Nikolaj Ehlers, who took the 5th-most shots per 60 of any forward in the league, was given 2:14 and sixteen per cent of his points came on it.

Four forwards over three minutes a night and the club's best shot-generator was not one of them.

What the Scout Says

Fifteenth in the league on the 9th-largest workload. A middling unit given five minutes a night, which is more time than all but eight clubs took.

Pierre-Luc Dubois is the unit's whole goal column. Fifteen power-play goals, more than half his season total, off 3:07 a night — and a five-on-five point rate at the 59th percentile. Sixty-five per cent of his attempts come from inside twenty feet at an 18-foot median, which is exactly the man a power play wants in the paint, and it is also the reason his even-strength file reads thin.

Mark Scheifele took 3:28 at the 95th percentile, Kyle Connor 3:24 at the 93rd, Blake Wheeler 3:11 at the 90th. Three forwards inside the top tenth of the league for power-play ice, on a unit ranked 15th.

Josh Morrissey ran the point at 2:32 and forty-one per cent of his points came there, the 92nd percentile among defencemen. His even-strength rate is the 34th, and the two figures together are what a power-play defenceman looks like when the label is accurate.

Nikolaj Ehlers took 2:14 and sixteen per cent of his points on it. A winger with the 5th-highest shot rate in the league taking the sixth-largest share of the club's power-play ice is the single clearest coaching question in this chapter.

What the Quant Says

26th in the league at 7.308 expected goals against per 60, over 4:39 a night — the 20th-largest workload.

And the roster scored nine short-handed goals, which is a very large number for a unit ranked 26th and says something about who is on it.

Kyle Connor took 1:23 a night and scored three. Adam Lowry took 2:19 — the 12th-most of 393 forwards — and scored three. Sam Gagner took 2:22, the 9th-most, and scored one. Dominic Toninato took 1:28 and scored one. Dylan DeMelo scored the other.

On the blue line: DeMelo 2:37 at the 85th percentile, Logan Stanley 2:25 at the 76th, Brenden Dillon 1:45, Neal Pionk 1:03, Josh Morrissey 0:57 at the 26th and Nate Schmidt 0:39 at the 17th.

The club's two largest defensive workloads take almost none of it. That is a choice, and a 26th-ranked kill is what it produced.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-sixth in the league at 7.308 expected goals against per 60, over the 20th-largest workload. Below average, and used about as much as anybody.

Nine short-handed goals came off it, which is a great many for a unit ranked 26th. Kyle Connor and Adam Lowry scored three each, Sam Gagner, Dominic Toninato and Dylan DeMelo one apiece.

The forward group is genuinely good at it. Gagner takes 2:22 a night, the 9th-most of 393 forwards, and Lowry 2:19, the 12th — and Lowry does it out of 40.9 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 101st-hardest chair of 652 skaters.

The blue line is where the arrangement is strange. Dylan DeMelo takes 2:37 and Logan Stanley 2:25, and the club's two largest defensive workloads — Josh Morrissey at 23:40 and Neal Pionk at 21:08 — take 0:57 and 1:03. Nate Schmidt takes 0:39.

Winnipeg kills penalties with its third pair and its fourth line. That is a defensible way to protect a power-play defenceman and it produced the 26th-ranked unit in the league.

The discipline is not the problem: Schmidt took the 7th-fewest penalties per 60 of 202 defencemen and Connor the 2nd-fewest of 393 forwards. Kyle Capobianco arrives from Arizona with the 4th-worst penalty differential at the position.