Winnipeg Jets

What the Quant Says

259 goals, 15th in the league. Which is the least interesting number in this chapter.

Winnipeg created 2.602 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 12th, and took 51.1 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 14th, and 52.0 per cent of the expected goals, 11th.

At five-on-five it scored 178 goals against an expectation of 168.7 — a surplus of 9.3, 8th in the league.

Mark Scheifele had 25 goals and 72 points in 74 games, Kyle Connor 34 and 61 in 65, Nikolaj Ehlers 25 and 61 in all 82 and Josh Morrissey 10 goals and 59 assists from the blue line.

Gabriel Vilardi scored 22 goals in 47 games at 18.8 per cent, on a chart with a 10.6-foot median attempt and 71 per cent of them from inside twenty feet — the closest chart of anybody in this edition who took a hundred attempts.

What the Scout Says

A thirty-four-goal winger who played 65 games, a 168-pound winger who played all 82, and the closest shot chart in this edition.

Kyle Connor is 6-1 and 183 and scored 34 goals in 65 games with 10 game-winners, on 288 attempts at a 28-foot median. He has 243 career goals and 52 game-winners in 531 games and took 6 penalty minutes all season.

Nikolaj Ehlers is 6-0 and 168 — the lightest man in this chapter — and played all 82 games for the first time since 2017-18, scoring 25 goals on 326 attempts, the most on the club. He took 56.2 per cent of the chances at five-on-five, the highest share of any forward on the roster.

Mark Scheifele has 797 games and 717 points and had 25 goals and 47 assists in 74. Gabriel Vilardi took 155 attempts at a 10.6-foot median with 71 per cent of them from inside twenty feet — the closest chart of anybody in this edition who took a hundred attempts — and scored 22 goals in 47 games.

Adam Lowry is 6-5 and took 49 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet. Nino Niederreiter has 887 career games and 223 goals. Cole Perfetti is 5-11 and scored 19 goals at 22.

What the Quant Says

Winnipeg conceded 199 goals, the fewest in the league, and allowed 2.414 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 9th. The gap between those two figures is the whole of this club.

At five-on-five it conceded 121 goals against an expectation of 155.8 — thirty-five fewer than the chances called for, and the club's goaltending came in 34.8 goals better than the shots it faced, 1st in the league by seven and a half.

Josh Morrissey had 10 goals and 59 assists in 81 games at 24:11 and finished plus-34, and his ice went 82-47 against an expectation of 76.67-64.19. Dylan DeMelo played all 82 at 21:44 and finished plus-46, the second-largest figure in this edition, with his ice at 81-44 against an expectation of 68.38-60.55.

Neal Pionk is undrafted and played all 82 at 20:50 with 183 career assists in 467 games. Dylan Samberg is 6-4 and finished plus-16 with 0.9 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet. Logan Stanley is 6-7 and took 91 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty.

Brenden Dillon has gone to New Jersey and Nate Schmidt to Florida. Haydn Fleury arrives from Tampa Bay.

What the Scout Says

Fifty-nine assists from one defenceman and a plus-46 from his partner.

Josh Morrissey is 6-0 and 195 and had 10 goals and 59 assists in 81 games at 24:11 on a plus-34, with 245 career assists in 582 games. He carries the puck out rather than passing it out and takes 62 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet; the volume is the point and 59 assists is what it returns.

Dylan DeMelo was a sixth-round pick, 179th overall, and played all 82 games at 21:44 on a plus-46, the second-largest figure in this edition. He has 17 goals in 554 career games and took 83 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet.

Neal Pionk is undrafted with 183 career assists in 467 games and played all 82 at 20:50. Dylan Samberg is 6-4 and 216 and took 0.9 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet — one attempt in a hundred and eight.

Colin Miller took not one attempt from inside twenty feet in 46 games and Logan Stanley is 6-7 and 231 and took none either. Haydn Fleury arrives from Tampa Bay, seventh overall in 2014, with 268 career games.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 34.8 goals better than the chances it faced — first in the league, and seven and a half goals clear of second. It is the largest goaltending edge any club in this edition had.

Connor Hellebuyck went 37-19-4 with a .921 and a 2.39 in 60 games, with 5 shutouts, facing 1,798 shots — the third-largest workload of any goaltender. The .921 was the second-best figure of anybody who played twenty-five games.

Eric Comrie went 2-7-0 with an .8740 in 10 games, and his career line across 57 games is an .8932.

Laurent Brossoit played 23 games and is no longer with the club.

Connor Hellebuyck has 275 career wins and 37 shutouts in 505 games, with a career .9168. A club that finished ninth at preventing chances allowed the fewest goals in hockey. One man is the reason and everybody knows it.

What the Scout Says

The largest goaltending edge any club in this edition had, and it is one man.

Connor Hellebuyck is 6-4 and 207 and went 37-19-4 with a .921 and a 2.39 in 60 games, with 5 shutouts, facing 1,798 shots — the third-largest workload of any goaltender in this edition. The .921 was the second-best figure of anybody who played twenty-five games. He plays enormous and square and deep, takes away the top of the net simply by standing up, and tracks the puck through a screen better than anybody in this chapter has any right to.

His career line across 505 games is a .9168 with 37 shutouts and 275 wins. He has been above .9100 in eight of his nine seasons and above .9200 in four of them. That is not a hot year; that is what he is.

Eric Comrie went 2-7-0 with an .8740 in 10 games and has a career .8932 across 57. Laurent Brossoit played 23 games and is no longer with the club.

The club's goaltending was worth 34.8 goals more than the shots it faced, first in the league by seven and a half. Some of that is a defence that finished ninth at preventing chances. Most of it is not.

What the Quant Says

28th in the league at 5.992 expected goals per 60, over 4:53 a night, the thirteenth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. The worst department on a club that finished fourth in the league.

Gabriel Vilardi scored 9 power-play goals in 47 games, Mark Scheifele 6, Kyle Connor 5, Cole Perfetti 5, Nino Niederreiter 3, Vladislav Namestnikov 3, Josh Morrissey 2, Mason Appleton 2, Alex Iafallo 2 and Neal Pionk 1.

Mark Scheifele has 78 career power-play goals in 797 games, the most on the roster, and Kyle Connor 58 in 531. Nino Niederreiter has 50 in 887, Nikolaj Ehlers 34 in 605 and Alex Iafallo 24 in 502.

Gabriel Vilardi has 20 career power-play goals in 199 games, and nine of the 22 he scored last season came on the man advantage. Twenty-eighth by rate is the one thing about this club that is genuinely bad.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-eighth by rate, and the man who should fix it played 47 games.

Gabriel Vilardi scored 9 power-play goals in 47 games and has 20 in 199 career games. He is 6-3 and 216 and stands where his chart says he stands: 71 per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet.

Mark Scheifele has 78 career power-play goals in 797 games, the most on the roster, and scored 6. Kyle Connor scored 5 and has 58 in 531. Cole Perfetti scored 5 at 22.

Nikolaj Ehlers scored none at all despite 25 goals and 326 attempts, which is the strangest line in this chapter. He has 34 career power-play goals in 605 games.

Josh Morrissey takes the point with 16 career power-play goals in 582 games. A unit with a seventy-eight-goal shot, a fifty-eight-goal shot and the best net-front chart in the edition finished twenty-eighth in the league.

What the Quant Says

18th in the league at 7.130 expected goals against per 60, over 5:07 a night, the tenth-most shorthanded minutes in hockey. An ordinary rate over a large workload, in front of the best goaltender in the league.

Mason Appleton scored 1 shorthanded goal, Adam Lowry 1 and Vladislav Namestnikov 1.

Adam Lowry has 11 career shorthanded goals in 702 games, the most on the roster, and Vladislav Namestnikov 8 in 708. Kyle Connor has 5 in 531 and Dylan DeMelo 2 in 554.

Adam Lowry is 6-5 and 210 with 392 career penalty minutes, and took 54.8 per cent of the chances at five-on-five over 1,055 minutes on the checking line. Nino Niederreiter has 408 career penalty minutes in 887 games.

Eighteenth by rate over the tenth-largest workload, and the club still allowed the fewest goals in hockey. That gap is not the penalty kill.

What the Scout Says

Eighteenth by rate over the tenth-largest workload, in front of the best goaltender in hockey.

Adam Lowry is 6-5 and 210 and has 11 career shorthanded goals in 702 games, the most on the roster, and took 54.8 per cent of the chances at five-on-five over 1,055 minutes on the checking line. That is a fourth-line assignment producing first-line ice.

Vladislav Namestnikov has 8 career shorthanded goals in 708 games and scored 1. Mason Appleton scored 1 and has 2 in 329 career games.

Nino Niederreiter is 6-2 and 218 with 408 career penalty minutes in 887 games and Josh Morrissey has 299 in 582. Dylan Samberg is 6-4 and 216.

Five minutes and seven seconds a night is the tenth-largest shorthanded workload in hockey, and eighteenth by rate over it is ordinary. The goaltender behind it is not.