Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

54

Dylan Samberg

Winnipeg Jets Defense

Plus-34 in 60 games, 6-4 and 216, and the 83rd percentile of chances.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22WPG15055+34000140.014:51
2022-23WPG63268+1025000494.114:56
2023-24WPG7811718+1643000771.315:38
2024-25WPG6061420+3426002956.321:08
2025-26 so far
Career21694251+63980022353.816:54

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 14 assists in 60 games — 20 points at 21:08 a night, plus-34, the best figure on the club, with 2 game-winners on 95 shots, and 26 penalty minutes.

53.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 83rd percentile. His ice went 44-26 against an expectation of 41.98-36.39 — two goals better than expected for and ten fewer conceded.

The Finesse Game

95 attempts at a median of 55 feet with 82 per cent from beyond 40 and 4 per cent from inside 20, converting at 6.3 per cent for 6 goals — a career high by a distance.

14 assists. The first pass is quick and correct and there is nothing else. 51 points in 216 career games is the record and it is not going to change; he holds the puck for as little time as the play permits.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 216 and he clears the front of his own net by force. He blocks shots, he finishes checks, and he defends the rush with reach that is difficult to get around.

26 penalty minutes in 60 games at twenty-one a night is a low rate for a defenceman playing this way. He does not retaliate and he does not go looking.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2017 — 43rd overall — out of Minnesota-Duluth, and 216 games, all of it here.

He is 26 and it was the first season in which he played top-four minutes. Plus-34 is a goaltending number as much as a defending one, but the 83rd percentile of chances is not.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,048 minutes

Expected goals
53.6%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.3%
77th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 26 against. Expected: 42.0 and 36.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
66th
Numbers
83rd

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1048 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
WPG took 51.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.6% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,048 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Neal Pionk55.9%49.1%43.8%
Mark Scheifele55.8%52.4%49.1%
Kyle Connor54.4%53.2%49.1%

55.9% together, 49.1% for him apart and 43.8% for Pionk apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

130 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 48 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 82% from beyond forty.