Winnipeg Jets

What the Quant Says

247 goals, 21st in the league.

Winnipeg created 2.701 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 13th, and took 51.6 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 11th, and 51.9 per cent of the expected goals, 13th.

At five-on-five it scored 158 goals against an expectation of 169.9 — a shortfall of 11.9, 26th in the league. Thirteenth at making chances and twenty-sixth at converting them, and that is the whole of the difference between eleventh in play and twenty-first in goals.

Mark Scheifele scored 42 goals on 206 shots at 20.39 per cent, Kyle Connor 31 and 80 on 273 shots, Josh Morrissey 16 goals and 60 assists from the blue line, Nino Niederreiter 24 and 41, Nikolaj Ehlers 38 points in 45 games and Adam Lowry 13 and 36 from the hardest zone starts on the club.

Gabriel Vilardi arrives with 23 goals in 63 games and Alex Iafallo with 36 points. Pierre-Luc Dubois has gone to Los Angeles and Blake Wheeler to the Rangers.

What the Scout Says

Forty-two goals on two hundred and six shots, and eighty points from two hundred and seventy-three.

Mark Scheifele is 6-3 and 207 and scored 42 goals on 206 shots — 20.39 per cent — on a career 16.8 per cent across 723 games, the fourth-highest career finishing rate in this book. He also finished minus-16 from the 90th percentile of offensive-zone ice time, and both of those numbers have been true of him for a decade.

Kyle Connor is 6-1 and 183 and scored 31 goals on 273 shots, with 209 in 466 career games and a career minus-20. The scoring is settled and the rest of the shift has never once been good.

Nikolaj Ehlers is 168 pounds and recorded 3.2 bursts above 20 miles an hour a game, the 97th percentile, in 45 games. He is the fastest forward on the roster and has played more than 62 games once in five seasons.

Nino Niederreiter took 98 shots on goal from inside 20 feet at 6-2 and 218. Adam Lowry is 6-5 and captains the club from the 3rd percentile of zone starts. Cole Perfetti had 22 assists in 51 games at 21 with a top speed in the 3rd percentile.

Gabriel Vilardi arrives with 23 goals in 63 games from a 16-foot median and the 8th percentile of shot speed. Vladislav Namestnikov has the eleventh-softest shot in this book and the 89th percentile of chance share.

What the Quant Says

Winnipeg allowed 2.500 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 11th in the league, and conceded 225 goals, 7th.

At five-on-five it conceded 147 goals against an expectation of 157.5, and the club's goaltending came in 10.5 goals better than the chances it faced, 8th in the league.

Josh Morrissey played 78 games at 24:14 with 76 points — 60 of them assists, a career high by 39 points — and covered 3.56 miles a game, the 98th percentile, from a top speed at the 12th.

Neal Pionk is undrafted and played all 82 games at 21:56 with 155 career assists. Brenden Dillon is 6-4 and undrafted with 766 career penalty minutes and 815 games, and took 65 shots from the point without scoring.

Dylan DeMelo has the lowest career shooting rate of any defenceman in this book and 99 assists in 472 games. Nate Schmidt is undrafted with a career plus-92. Dylan Samberg is 6-4 and played 63 games at 24 at the 83rd percentile of chance share.

What the Scout Says

Seventy-six points from a defenceman with a top speed in the twelfth percentile.

Josh Morrissey is 6-0 and 195 and had 16 goals and 60 assists in 78 games at 24:14, a career high by 39 points at 28. He covered 3.56 miles a game, the 98th percentile, on a 21.5 mph top speed at the 12th — the clearest case in this chapter of a defenceman who is always moving and never fast. He took 535 attacking-zone draws, which is a great deal of help, and the 60 assists are still 60 assists.

Neal Pionk is undrafted with 155 career assists in 385 games at 21:56 a night, and the chance share has never quite matched the offence.

Brenden Dillon is 6-4 and 225 and undrafted, with 815 games, 766 penalty minutes and 29 goals, and he took 65 shots from the point last season without scoring one. The 79th-percentile chance share out of hard starts says the career is still working at 32.

Dylan DeMelo has the lowest career shooting rate of any defenceman in this book — 14 goals in 472 games — and a positive chance share out of even starts every year. Nate Schmidt is undrafted with a career plus-92 and a 23.2 mph top speed at 32. Dylan Samberg is 6-4 and 216 with a 72 per cent wrist-shot share.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 10.5 goals better than the chances it faced, 8th in the league.

Connor Hellebuyck went 37-25-2 with a .9201 and a 2.49 in 64 games, facing 1,964 shots with 4 shutouts — the fourth-best save percentage in this book. He is 6-4, has a career .9163 across 445 games and 13,604 shots, and has a Vezina Trophy. There is no larger body of evidence behind any goaltender in this edition.

Laurent Brossoit arrives from Vegas, where he went 7-0-3 with a .9274 in 11 games facing 317. He is 6-3 and has a career .9075 across 117 games, which is the number to use.

David Rittich played 21 games and has gone to Los Angeles.

A club that finished seventh in goals against on the eleventh-best shot share did so with the fourth-best save percentage in the book behind it. That is not a borrowed number in the way finishing is — four hundred and forty-five games say it is the player — but it is doing more work here than the standings show.

What the Scout Says

Four hundred and forty-five games, thirteen thousand six hundred and four shots, and a career .9163.

Connor Hellebuyck is 6-4 and 207 and went 37-25-2 with a .9201 in 64 games, the fourth-best save percentage in this book, on a career .9163 across 445 games and 13,604 shots. He is deep, square and almost never out of position, he has a Vezina Trophy, and there is no larger body of evidence behind any goaltender in this edition. Sixty-four games is as many as any goaltender in this edition played.

Laurent Brossoit arrives at 6-3 with a career .9075 across 117 games, having posted a .9274 in 11 for Vegas. The second number is 317 shots and the first is the one to use.

David Rittich has gone to Los Angeles. Winnipeg's crease is the most settled thing about the club and the least likely to be the reason it wins or loses anything.

What the Quant Says

21st in the league at 6.598 expected goals per 60, over 5:35 a night — the fourth-most power-play time of any club. A poor rate on a lot of ice.

Mark Scheifele scored 12 power-play goals, Kyle Connor 8, Alex Iafallo 7, Gabriel Vilardi 5, Nino Niederreiter 4, Nate Schmidt 3, Josh Morrissey 2, Neal Pionk 1, Vladislav Namestnikov 1, Mason Appleton 1 and Cole Perfetti 1.

Mark Scheifele has 72 career power-play goals in 723 games, the most on the roster, and Kyle Connor 53 in 466 — by rate the largest here. Nino Niederreiter has 47 in 810, Nikolaj Ehlers 34 in 523, Alex Iafallo arrives with 22 in 420 and Vladislav Namestnikov has 18 in 630.

Twenty-first in the league on the fourth-most power-play minutes, from a club whose top two forwards have 125 career power-play goals between them. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler both ran a unit here and both have gone.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-first in the league on the fourth-most power-play time in it.

Mark Scheifele has 72 career power-play goals in 723 games, the most on the roster, and scored 12 from the slot at a career 16.8 per cent.

Kyle Connor has 53 in 466 career games — by rate the largest figure here — and takes the left circle at 6-1.

Nino Niederreiter has 47 in 810 games and stands at the net front at 218 pounds. Nikolaj Ehlers has 34 in 523 when he is available, and Alex Iafallo arrives with 22 in 420.

Josh Morrissey takes the point with 60 assists behind him and Neal Pionk the other with 155 career assists. Twenty-first in the league from that group, on the third-most ice, is the plainest structural failure on this page.

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at 6.947 expected goals against per 60, over 4:55 a night — the twelfth-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club.

Adam Lowry scored 3 shorthanded goals, Dylan DeMelo 1 and Morgan Barron 1.

Adam Lowry has 10 career shorthanded goals in 621 games, the most on the roster and by rate the largest here. Vladislav Namestnikov has 7 in 630, Kyle Connor 5 in 466, Brenden Dillon 4 in 815 and Dylan DeMelo 2 in 472.

Adam Lowry took 181 attacking-zone draws against 406 defensive ones — the 3rd percentile of zone starts — and captains the club. Morgan Barron is 6-4 and took the 9th percentile with no goals from beyond 20 feet. Brenden Dillon has 766 career penalty minutes in 815 games.

Nineteenth by rate on the twelfth-fewest shorthanded minutes in the league. The captain takes the hardest starts on the roster and the unit is still exactly average.

What the Scout Says

Nineteenth in the league, and the captain does the hardest work on the club.

Adam Lowry is 6-5 and 210 with 10 career shorthanded goals in 621 games — the largest figure here by rate — and took 181 attacking-zone draws against 406 defensive ones, the 3rd percentile of zone starts. He is a third-round pick who became a captain by taking the shift nobody wants, and it is the clearest example in this book of the thing a box score cannot see.

Vladislav Namestnikov has 7 career shorthanded goals in 630 games and the 89th percentile of chance share out of ordinary starts.

Brenden Dillon has 766 career penalty minutes in 815 games and clears the front of the net at 6-4. Dylan DeMelo has 2 shorthanded goals in 472 games and kills the other half.

Morgan Barron is 6-4 and took the 9th percentile of zone starts at 24. Nineteenth by rate on the twelfth-fewest shorthanded minutes in the league, in front of the fourth-best save percentage in this book.